Russia, Serbia, Japan are the WC favourites on Goldman Sachs Averages… (see next slide for original GS Data)
Original GS Dataset Used to Derive Favourite Rankings
In fact Russia ranks at the Top even if not qualifying markets are included
Arable Land Is Important Factor in Determining WC Country Success – Russia, Australia, Brazil ..
June 13 Fed Decision, and then World Cup June 14 matches
WC Groups
Russia In World Cups- Success Matches Economy
Economic success is not required of winners.. Germany was an example..
Global Battle Deaths Fall as Red card expulsions rise But a recent drop in red cards is worrisome – implying a possible rise in global warfare deaths. Therefore Red cards on 2018 WC will be an important variable to watch
Trade wars – a consequence of a stagnating number of countries in WC .. 32 since 1998
Some rise in Average Goals per match implies higher inflation reading and possible a more robust global growth
Recent Strategy Chart Art
Strategy
May performance wrap: Emerging markets – supported by China; European markets – weaker; US markets – very strong in May; Frontier markets tanked.
Oil price finished slightly higher in May; Gold price – down a notch in dollar terms – but strong in Euro, Yen and Rupee; Copper was down; Aluminium – sharply down and Nickel was very strong; Some emerging markets collapsed – ie Turkey, Brazil, Argentina and Hungary
Dollar strength is in focus, next Fed move, Italy crisis, US China trade war in focus as well as N.Korea and Iran.
World cup in Russia and all other things connected to Russia, Ukraine and sanctions.
GS World cup statistics on Midlincoln interpretations imply Russia has a very good chance this time. But it also imply all other sorts of interesting things..
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Average Sovereign GEM Yields (USD)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Average Sov. Dev. Markets Yields (blended currency)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Average UST Yield
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Average Sovereign Local Currency Yields (USD)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Choose A Country
ARGENTINA: EMERGING MARKETS-Argentina stocks surge as Wall St, oil lift ...
| AUSTRALIA: Australia: Shares track up as Italy turmoil eases; NZ higher
| AUSTRIA: European Equity Benchmarks Close Higher; Banks, Mining Stocks ...
| BAHRAIN: MIDEAST STOCKS-Dubai, Qatar lead gains in most Gulf markets
| BELGIUM: Belgium shares lower at close of trade; BEL 20 down 0.92%
|
BRAZIL: EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil equities steady amid Petrobras ...
| BRITAIN: Britain shares join European sell-off; Dixons hammered
| CANADA: CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures mirror global stocks fall
| CHILE: AFP Capital readies to be first Chilean pension to access alts
| CHINA: Block Says Chinese Equities Are 'Sin Stocks'
|
COLOMBIA: Colombia shares lower at close of trade; COLCAP down 0.31%
| CZECH: Czech Republic - Factors To Watch on May 16
| DENMARK: Denmark shares lower at close of trade; OMX Copenhagen 20 down ...
| EGYPT: Saudi Equities World's Second Best-Performing Stock Market in ...
| FINLAND: Finland shares lower at close of trade; OMX Helsinki 25 down 0.30%
|
FRANCE: France shares lower at close of trade; CAC 40 down 0.22%
| GERMANY: Germany shares higher at close of trade; DAX up 0.13%
| GREECE: Greece shares higher at close of trade; Athens General Composite ...
| HONG KONG: Gold, US stocks, Chinese bonds, Hong Kong-listed H shares or T ...
| HUNGARY: EMERGING MARKETS-Emerging stocks hit 5-mth low as Italian ...
|
INDIA: India shares extend losses ahead of monetary policy decision
| INDONESIA: Indonesia mutual fund assets up 11% in January-April 2018
| IRELAND: Why tech stocks give 'an insulating force field' to this market
| ISRAEL: Israel shares higher at close of trade; TA 35 up 0.57%
| ITALY: WisdomTree's Gannatti: European equities still attractive despite ...
|
JAPAN: What a strengthening yen means for Japanese equities
| KAZAKHSTAN: EMERGING MARKETS-Emerging stocks snap 3-day losing streak ...
| LEBANON: LCNB Corporation (LCNB) Moves Higher on Volume Spike for June ...
| MALAYSIA: Malaysia EPF's investment income up, assets increase in first quarter
| MEXICO: Investors are running away from Mexican stocks as leftist pulls ...
|
NETHERLANDS: Netherlands shares higher at close of trade; AEX up 0.19%
| NEW ZEALAND: MARKET CLOSE: NZ shares rise in heavy MSCI trading; Synlait ...
| NIGERIA: Nigeria's Equities Market Maintains an Uptrend As NSEASI Inches ...
| NORWAY: Norway shares lower at close of trade; Oslo OBX down 0.45%
| OMAN: MIDEAST STOCKS-Dubai and Saudi bourses lead Gulf gains, Egypt ...
|
PAKISTAN: Pakistan equities close in green as value investors step in
| PERU: Peru shares higher at close of trade; S&P Lima General up 0.29%
| PHILIPPINES: Asia's Most Unloved Stocks Still Face Weakness, Investors Say
| POLAND: Poland shares higher at close of trade; WIG30 up 1.79%
| PORTUGAL: Portugal shares higher at close of trade; PSI 20 up 0.01%
|
QATAR: Transport, insurance, consumer goods buying lift Qatar shares
| QATAR: Transport, insurance, consumer goods buying lift Qatar shares
| ROMANIA: European Equity Benchmarks Close Mixed; Euro Area Economic ...
| RUSSIA: Russia shares lower at close of trade; MOEX Russia down 0.23%
| SINGAPORE: Singapore shares open lower on Wednesday; STI down 1.8% to ...
|
SOUTH AFRICA: Offshore investor interest in South African equities at risk as ...
| SOUTH KOREA: The Other Korea: Growth Down, Rising Inflation, Equities Head ...
| SPAIN: Spanish stocks follow Italy lower on political jitters
| SWEDEN: Sweden shares lower at close of trade; OMX Stockholm 30 down ...
| SWITZERLAND: Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) (RIG) Dips 2.72% for June 04
|
TAIWAN: Taiwan shares lower at close of trade; Taiwan Weighted down 0.08%
| THAILAND: The Other Korea: Growth Down, Rising Inflation, Equities Head ...
| TURKEY: Turkey shares lower at close of trade; BIST 100 down 1.44%
| UAE: Mideast funds more positive on UAE equities
| UKRAINE: Italian PM nominee, pension performance, Ukraine strike ends
|
UNITED STATES: Strong US Equities Continues To Pressure Gold
| VIETNAM: Malaysia, Vietnam stocks post biggest falls in Asia-Pacific in May
|
Comment
Monthly performance is between 2018-06-01 and 2018-05-01
Best global markets YTD USA +2.50%, EFM ASIA-0.10%, EM (EMERGING MARKETS)-2.44%,
While worst global markets YTD FM (FRONTIER MARKETS) -9.46%, EM LATIN AMERICA -9.17%, EUROPE -3.58%,
Best global markets last month USA +3.07%, EFM ASIA-0.86%, EUROPE-2.30%,
While worst global markets last month EM LATIN AMERICA -13.59%, FM (FRONTIER MARKETS) -9.06%, EM (EMERGING MARKETS) -2.78%,
Nikkei adds 197 points as US equities gain, yen weakensWhy You Should Go Overweight US StocksBullish Signs in These Seven Charts Boost Emerging-Market AssetsEMERGING MARKETS-Brazil currency skids as election woes add ...China stocks slip as healthcare firms weighChina Stock Market Draws Another Green LightWisdomTree's Gannatti: European equities still attractive despite ...Commodity, Tech Stocks Drive European Equities HigherVenezuela's Oil Meltdown Defies BeliefGoldman: OPEC Must Raise ProductionEast Asian stainless steel prices rise again on low supply, surging ...Tariffs on foreign steel raising domestic prices tooGold Price Falls On Lower Demand, Silver GainsGold price: Investors are pouring $1 billion per month into ETFs
Best last month among various countries' equity markets were ZIMBABWE +10.16%, ISRAEL +6.93%, IRELAND +4.62%, UKRAINE +4.51%, NEW ZEALAND +4.10%, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO +3.63%, USA +3.07%, SAUDI ARABIA DOMESTIC +2.41%, CANADA +2.33%, CHINA +2.14%,
While worst last month among various countries' equity markets were ARGENTINA -21.04%, BRAZIL -16.49%, TURKEY -15.51%, GREECE -14.70%, HUNGARY -13.78%, MEXICO -12.09%, EGYPT -11.72%, ROMANIA -11.36%, ITALY -11.01%, NIGERIA -10.76%,
Best YTD among various country equities were TUNISIA +27.69%, ZIMBABWE +22.52%, SAUDI ARABIA DOMESTIC +19.11%, COLOMBIA +11.53%, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO +9.90%, KENYA +9.14%, UKRAINE +8.99%, FINLAND +8.81%, PERU +8.42%, JORDAN +6.48%,
While worst YTD among various country equities were ARGENTINA -30.97%, TURKEY -30.51%, MAURITIUS -22.55%, HUNGARY -16.15%, PHILIPPINES -16.01%, POLAND -16.00%, INDONESIA -13.84%, ESTONIA -12.63%, BRAZIL -11.49%, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA -10.79%,
