Supporting Data for August 2026 Commodities Strategy

Midlincoln Commodities Rankings from best to worst

NameRank
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT39.24
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.27.63
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.26.39
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.25.70
Coking CoalCNY/MT21.86
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.18.93
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT16.36
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.14.35
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.14.02
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.13.98
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT11.39
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT11.24
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.8.96
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.8.09
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT7.82
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt6.84
NickelUSD/MT5.97
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.4.93
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.3.59
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.3.51
SteelUSD/MT1.13
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.-6.13
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.-11.00
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu-18.48
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-25.94

Commodities Monthly Performance

NameUnitsLastPriceCurrencyMonthChange USDpct
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT1157.25USD21.27
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.3.8039USD16.60
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl75700.00JPY13.78
Coking CoalCNY/MT1490CNY13.74
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT6108.00USD13.45
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.80.48USD11.72
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.76.29USD11.15
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.8258USD7.08
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.1374.2500USD6.86
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.6.648USD6.84
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1752.7400USD6.44
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT55989.00USD6.39
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT14066.50USD5.24
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.6.38USD4.80
NickelUSD/MT17193USD4.68
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt13.87USD4.44
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3223.00USD4.29
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3673.50USD3.74
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.1521USD2.84
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT764.50CAD1.61
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.315.30USD1.42
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.6762USD1.42
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.4216.00USD1.23
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.4.6025USD1.15
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg216.60JPY1.12
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT80.95USD0.94
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.3.1125USD0.39
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.4156.6100USD0.01
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.2.945USD0.00
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.10.235USD0.00
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.16USD0.00
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.395610.7188INR-0.23
SteelUSD/MT579USD-0.69
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.3086.6600GBP-0.93
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.3601.6400EUR-1.06
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.61.4599USD-1.08
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.61.77USD-1.18
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl106000.00JPY-1.85
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.45.6357GBP-2.01
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.53.2494EUR-2.14
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g21607.00JPY-2.59
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.2.8812USD-2.61
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.655760.7500JPY-2.79
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.9695.0900JPY-3.86
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.3.4614999999999996USD-4.02
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.279USD-4.74
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.597USD-6.66
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g305.00JPY-7.58
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.0.8434999999999999USD-14.58
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu2.69USD-15.67
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet--USD

Commodities YTD Performance

NameUnitsLastPriceCurrencyYTDChange USDpct
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT1157.25USD89.71
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.3.8039USD81.96
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.2.8812USD65.57
Coking CoalCNY/MT1490CNY42.45
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.6762USD36.66
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.76.29USD33.68
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt13.87USD33.62
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.80.48USD31.65
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl75700.00JPY31.31
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.8258USD27.89
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT55989.00USD26.32
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl106000.00JPY23.26
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.6.38USD23.17
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT764.50CAD22.36
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg216.60JPY17.27
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3673.50USD15.97
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.6.648USD15.45
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT14066.50USD9.05
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3223.00USD4.35
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.315.30USD3.58
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.4.6025USD3.14
SteelUSD/MT579USD2.48
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.1521USD1.60
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.2.945USD0.00
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.10.235USD0.00
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.16USD0.00
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.0.8434999999999999USD-0.53
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT6108.00USD-0.59
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.395610.7188INR-0.74
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.3.4614999999999996USD-2.63
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.279USD-2.83
NickelUSD/MT17193USD-3.92
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.4216.00USD-4.90
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.3601.6400EUR-5.03
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.655760.7500JPY-5.58
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g21607.00JPY-5.81
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.4156.6100USD-5.97
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.3086.6600GBP-6.34
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT80.95USD-7.46
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.53.2494EUR-16.29
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.61.77USD-16.31
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.61.4599USD-17.06
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.45.6357GBP-17.37
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.3.1125USD-18.60
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.9695.0900JPY-19.57
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g305.00JPY-19.74
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.1374.2500USD-20.02
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1752.7400USD-20.67
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu2.69USD-22.48
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.597USD-25.88
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet--USD

Key Topics and News

Oil Production Cost Curve
Oil Supply and Demand
Aluminium Cost Curve
Aluminium Supply and Demand
Nickel Metal Cost Curve
Nickel Metal Supply Demand
Copper Cost Curve
Copper Supply Demand

Recent Commodities Ideas ChartArt

Top 5 Commodities Longs Based on Momentum

Tickernameunits1monthytd6months1yrRank
QS1 ComdtyGasoil (Nymex)USD/MT21.2789.7166.4574.0953.94
HO1 ComdtyHeating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.16.6081.9658.4674.7649.94
LMSNDS03 Comdty3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT6.3926.3215.3895.9539.24
XB1 ComdtyRBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.-2.6165.5747.9750.3831.91
BO1 ComdtySoybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.1.4236.6621.9964.6129.34

Top 5 Commodities Shorts Based on Momentum

Tickernameunits1monthytd6months1yrRank
JO1 ComdtyOrange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-6.66-25.88-2.44-68.73-25.94
NG1 ComdtyNatural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu-15.67-22.48-23.58-16.20-18.48
LH1 ComdtyLean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.-14.58-0.53-14.32-4.09-11.00
SB1 ComdtySugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.2.841.606.59-27.81-6.13
MBSTCIHR IndexSteelUSD/MT-0.692.483.390.701.13

Estimates of Commodities Avg Annual Prices

NameUnitsAvg2014Avg2015Avg2016Avg2017Avg2018Avg2019Avg2020Avg2021Avg2022Avg2023Avg2024Avg2025Avg2026
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.94.9950.2842.7551.2066.4756.1540.1866.8795.0378.2877.4163.1183.13
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.101.8055.5744.4954.9372.1363.1443.5569.5699.4583.0481.8767.0686.22
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl65510.0040930.0027931.6737180.8347237.5040296.6729553.3344018.3370425.0071472.5077025.0064156.6784494.29
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu4.302.632.553.102.992.622.093.696.672.642.593.443.19
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.2.671.661.411.661.971.701.212.052.932.492.371.922.76
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.2.851.741.341.672.091.921.282.033.472.782.612.283.33
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT860.42514.50390.94495.81645.10584.38379.44575.481028.06814.38790.54684.581036.32
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl78761.6753452.5039289.1749809.1764072.5057185.8343763.3360145.0081399.1777566.6782500.0083000.00101000.00
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT7.878.546.016.2815.0524.6424.7851.4780.8183.8664.1175.7777.76
Coking CoalCNY/MT1268.211413.171308.791264.711978.752485.291698.581776.671116.001156.86
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.1256.961164.131242.981261.421296.031393.651789.181793.081809.731959.542152.923537.834640.07
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g4244.084518.754351.504528.004513.174856.426090.506300.087543.588749.6710390.3317524.6724264.86
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.1257.901165.041244.581260.771291.161390.271781.961792.231802.741946.002143.253524.474622.64
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.942.711046.481121.541119.381082.191241.641555.331512.171713.251814.651979.823126.083975.36
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.760.72762.51916.27977.94953.381094.401384.481303.821456.451582.131691.072695.923442.93
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.132439.14140867.54135395.43141150.35140707.55151395.17189708.45196137.93235376.45272542.25323040.97538181.63732443.71
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.76693.9874391.5383373.7682136.4686707.7497986.21132303.55132329.73140790.36161008.04177172.37311652.22428313.71
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.18.9915.6817.0517.2216.0216.1720.6725.0721.7923.5624.7141.9874.59
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g63.8660.5859.2061.4155.9956.4970.0888.2089.96104.98119.70205.33380.94
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.19.0015.7217.0817.2416.0216.1520.5325.0121.7123.4024.6042.5074.59
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.14.2214.1315.3915.3313.4214.4217.8421.0820.6021.8122.7337.6564.14
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.11.4810.2912.6113.3911.8212.7115.9118.1817.5119.0219.4132.4855.53
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.1997.591901.201852.361930.391744.571758.402183.742735.592827.783275.583710.946493.1411873.94
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1387.321069.77992.14958.52908.21861.19896.211090.11954.68993.07908.481385.881995.21
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.799.70704.93617.60862.401026.021512.272195.902423.552148.351397.87949.141273.911533.07
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.3.132.542.202.812.972.712.764.204.013.813.974.795.95
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT6870.465589.334873.506196.006659.255991.086143.969216.298863.008437.088716.1710281.6713029.21
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT1884.901703.581619.131957.672138.581817.921723.332437.922737.042293.882290.252743.503314.64
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT2153.041976.132096.132872.253032.002483.582239.132956.583476.172622.672507.833054.673341.93
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT22013.7516282.9217658.3320154.1720428.3318467.5017087.3330047.0031787.7525346.3327085.6733717.6749499.43
NickelUSD/MT16717.5012147.089583.7510585.8313551.6713755.8313669.2518449.6726612.0822084.5817037.8315110.3317757.00
SteelUSD/MT526.25355.00369.38493.71548.13451.42446.42679.28734.83638.00591.83554.00582.14
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.0.384.243.793.743.663.853.585.716.795.774.434.294.52
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.2.605.704.854.634.914.955.367.088.946.455.795.295.86
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.0.001.462.142.412.512.832.824.735.413.673.553.212.95
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt14.1111.0810.2510.9511.5011.5012.8013.4516.5716.3716.8712.1411.55
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.1.749.459.719.779.428.959.3113.7015.0313.9712.0110.1110.24
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.430.26326.37313.93312.35340.27306.84313.10387.33426.30431.56351.60293.87313.80
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.370.310.320.340.300.290.310.560.680.550.470.470.66
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT441.19474.08482.08509.64503.82461.20492.67787.28956.78725.55633.33612.67716.00
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT3004.173059.252905.832018.422266.752386.252486.172496.252472.673179.337061.337093.674219.29
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.1.751.321.351.341.141.021.131.672.161.711.903.533.05
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.170.130.180.160.120.120.130.180.180.240.220.170.15
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.451.251.701.551.511.081.161.221.712.953.362.991.84
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.770.630.650.750.820.670.630.921.090.830.840.670.72
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet337.38270.06295.23379.39464.43362.89496.94837.69725.05163.360.000.000.00
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg207.43190.36171.15241.90177.54181.20167.08167.90167.90167.90167.90169.87204.33
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.171.531.511.521.401.371.212.102.162.162.162.162.16
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.1.511.481.191.181.141.151.071.241.421.721.782.202.42
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.022.041.441.431.481.421.371.511.742.252.413.223.63
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.1.060.710.650.700.690.720.580.910.970.800.880.840.98

Commodities News, Table of Contents:

OilNatural GasCoking CoalGoldSilverPlatinumPalladiumCopper
3Mo Aluminum3Mo Zinc3Mo TinNickelSteelCornWheatOats
Rough RiceSoybeanCanolaCocoaCoffeeSugarOrange JuiceCotton
WoolLumberRubberEthanolLive CattleFeeder CattleLean Hogs

Oil 80.48 (USD/bbl.)

  • Oil prices have exhibited moderate volatility in July-August 2026, primarily driven by OPEC+ supply adjustments and tightening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting market sentiment. Production cuts announced at the late July 2026 OPEC+ meeting have supported prices near $90-95/barrel levels despite mixed economic growth data that dampens demand expectations. Key risk remains the uncertain trajectory of global demand amid emerging recession fears in advanced economies and potential renewed US shale output responding to sustained high prices.
  • OPEC+ July 2026 Meeting Outcomes
  • EIA August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook
  • Oil Market Reaction to Middle East Geopolitical Risks
  • US Shale Response to High Oil Prices in Q2 2026
  • As of early August 2026, global oil supply has tightened amid constrained OPEC+ production adherence and unexpected maintenance outages in key non-OPEC producers. Demand remains strong driven by sustained economic growth in Asia and easing COVID-19 related travel restrictions globally. However, downside risks include potential demand shock from recession fears in major economies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which could disrupt supply further, maintaining upward pressure on prices.
  • IEA Oil Market Report August 2026
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report August 2026
  • US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2026
  • Bloomberg: Oil Prices Rise on Supply Tightness, Demand Resilience - Aug 2026
  • Reuters: Middle East Geopolitics Pose Risk to Oil Supply in 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the global oil cost curve reflects a consolidation at $65-$75 per barrel breakeven for much of U.S. shale and OPEC+ conventional production, driven by slower post-pandemic investment and tightening upstream capital expenditures. Higher sustained costs reflect decarbonization regulations and inflationary pressures on labor and materials. Key uncertainty remains in OPEC+ production discipline amid geopolitical tensions, and potential technological improvements that could shift cost competitiveness lower, impacting global supply balances and price volatility.
  • IEA Oil Market Report July 2026
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report August 2026
  • Rystad Energy: 2026 Global Oil Cost Curve Update
  • Bloomberg: Rising Costs Keep Oil Break-Even High in 2026

    • Natural Gas 2.69 (USD/MMBtu)

  • Natural gas prices in early August 2026 have eased slightly from the previous month’s highs, pressured by rising domestic production in the United States and weaker demand amid mild summer temperatures. Key supply expansions through recent LNG capacity additions and stable storage levels have capped upside potential. However, risks remain from geopolitical tensions in key exporting regions and unpredictable hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico, which could disrupt supply and tighten balances.
  • EIA Monthly Energy Review July 2026 – Natural Gas
  • US Natural Gas Production Hits Record in Mid-2026, EIA
  • Natural Gas Prices Slip Amid Mild Weather, Bloomberg, Aug 3 2026
  • IEA Gas Market Report Q3 2026 Highlights
  • Natural gas supply-demand in mid-2026 shows tightening due to sustained strong LNG exports and elevated power sector demand amid a hot summer in the Northern Hemisphere. U.S. production has plateaued given capex constraints, limiting supply growth, while inventory draws in Europe and Asia reflect growing Asian import demand. Key risk remains in potential new geopolitical sanctions affecting Russian pipeline flows and unseasonal weather impacting consumption patterns, particularly heading into the northern winter.
  • EIA August 2026 Monthly Natural Gas Report
  • IEA Gas Market Report July 2026
  • Wood Mackenzie Q3 2026 LNG Market Outlook
  • Reuters: European Gas Stocks Draw Amid Heatwave
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: US Gas Production Plateaus in H1 2026
  • As of August 2026, the US natural gas cost curve shows upward pressure driven by constrained supply growth amid weather-induced production slowdowns and ongoing export demand to Europe and Asia. Higher operational costs and tighter Appalachia and Permian output have pushed incremental supply marginal costs above $4.50/MMBtu. However, risks include potential easing from imminent LNG export project ramp-ups and variable shale well productivity. Market watchers remain cautious on gas price volatility given uncertain global demand and regulatory developments affecting drilling activity.
  • EIA August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook
  • IEA Natural Gas Market Report July 2026
  • FERC Monthly LNG Export Update - July 2026
  • Reuters: US Natural Gas Cost Curve Pressured by Supply Shocks – August 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: US Gas Supply Tightening Ahead of Winter 2026–27

    • Coking Coal 1,490.00 (CNY/MT)

  • Coking coal prices in July-August 2026 have broadly stabilized after a mid-2026 rebound driven by tightening supply from key exporters (notably Australia and Canada) amid expanded Chinese steel production ahead of peak construction season. Price support persists due to reduced export volumes and increased demand for higher-quality metallurgical coal. However, risks remain from potential demand moderation if Chinese steel output slows or if alternative materials gain traction in steelmaking, alongside geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains.
  • Australian coking coal exports tighten in Q2 2026
  • China’s steelmaking demand supports coking coal prices, July 2026
  • Metals and Mining Monthly – August 2026, S&P Global
  • Coking coal market outlook and risks, Wood Mackenzie July 2026
  • In July-August 2026, coking coal supply tightened due to stronger-than-expected Chinese steel demand and ongoing Australian export constraints from cyclone-related port shutdowns. Indonesian output rose moderately but remains limited by rising domestic consumption and regulatory tightening. Inventory drawdowns at major Chinese ports underpin firm prices in spot and futures markets. Key risk remains the pace of Chinese steel output amid environmental policy shifts and potential new import restrictions, which could abruptly shift demand dynamics in Q4 2026.
  • China Steel Output Supports Coking Coal Demand in July 2026
  • Australian Coking Coal Exports Hit by Cyclone Disruptions
  • Indonesian Coking Coal Supply Faces Domestic Policy Constraints
  • Coking Coal Inventories Decline at Chinese Ports – Tianjin Data July 2026
  • Steel Policy Ahead May Reshape Coking Coal Demand Outlook
  • As of mid-2026, the coking coal cost curve has shifted upward due to rising input costs, including labor and environmental compliance expenses in key producing regions like Australia and Canada. Demand from steelmakers remains steady but shows early signs of moderation amid economic slowdowns in China and Europe, compressing profit margins for high-cost producers. A key risk is potential regulatory tightening on carbon emissions, which could further elevate production costs and disrupt supply dynamics.
  • Glencore 2Q26 Production and Market Report
  • World Steel Association July 2026 Market Outlook
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics - Coal Industry Cost Index June 2026
  • S&P Global Commodities Insights: Coking Coal Cost Curve Analysis July 2026
  • IEA Coal 2026 Market Report – July Update

    • Gold 4,156.61 (USD/t oz.)

  • Gold prices have edged lower in early August 2026 following the July Federal Reserve statement that signaled a potential pause in interest rate hikes amid moderating inflation. The firm US dollar and cautious risk sentiment amid mixed economic data have constrained upside momentum. However, geopolitical tensions and ongoing central bank purchases maintain underlying support. Key uncertainties include upcoming US inflation prints and central bank policy shifts that could prompt renewed volatility in gold.
  • Gold prices slip amid Fed pause signals
  • US Fed July minutes highlight inflation concerns, pause bias
  • Gold demand steady as central banks continue buying
  • Dollar strength curbs gold rally despite geopolitical risks
  • Gold supply-demand in H1 2026 shows moderate growth in mine production driven by increased output from Australia and Russia, while recycled gold supply softened amid lower jewelry scrap. Central bank purchases remain steady but cautious amid tightening monetary policies globally. Demand from technology applications and investment bars/coins has stabilized after Q1 volatility due to shifting risk sentiment. Key risk remains around geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts, which could either spur safe-haven demand or suppress investment via higher real yields.
  • World Gold Council: Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026
  • US Geological Survey: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 - Gold
  • IMF Working Paper on Central Bank Gold Reserves Trends Mid-2026
  • Reuters: Gold Mine Output Rises 3.2% H1 2026 on Australia, Russia
  • Bloomberg: Jewelry Scrap Declines as Consumer Sentiment Drops in Asia
  • As of mid-2026, the gold cost curve shows a moderate increase in marginal production costs, driven primarily by rising energy prices and inflationary pressures on labor and equipment. Higher-grade mines remain the cost leaders, while expansion projects in lower-grade regions are slowing due to capital constraints. A key risk remains price volatility tied to global macroeconomic uncertainty and potential shifts in central bank gold reserves, which could alter producer pricing power and investment incentives.
  • GFMS Gold Market 2026 Midyear Report
  • World Gold Council: Gold Mining Cost Curves Q2 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Gold Supply-Demand and Cost Review July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Rising Energy Costs Lift Gold Production Expenses in 2026
  • The Financial Times: Gold Mining Faces Cost Headwinds Amid Inflationary Pressures

    • Silver 61.77 (USD/t oz.)

  • Silver prices have declined through July and early August 2026, pressured mainly by stronger USD and rising US Treasury yields, which have dampened bullion's appeal as an inflation hedge. Industrial demand from electronics and green technologies remains steady but insufficient to offset macro headwinds. Key risks include potential shifts in Fed policy or unexpected geopolitical tensions that could trigger renewed safe-haven inflows, as well as supply-side developments from major silver mining countries.
  • Silver Prices Edge Lower on Strong Dollar, Higher Yields - LBMA August 2026 Report
  • Gold and Silver Market Update: July 2026 - World Silver Survey 2026
  • Silver Price Dynamics Amid Fed Pause Expectations - Reuters July 2026
  • US Mint Silver Sales Data July 2026 - US Mint Official Release
  • As of mid-2026, global silver supply is trending slightly lower due to modest declines in mine output, especially from Latin American producers, while recycling levels remain stable. Industrial demand, notably from electronics and solar PV sectors, continues to grow, underpinning overall silver consumption. However, investment demand has softened amid macroeconomic uncertainties and interest rate volatility, creating a risk of price pressure if supply disruptions ease or demand growth slows unexpectedly.
  • Silver Market Highlights July 2026 – Silver Institute
  • World Silver Survey 2026 - Silver Institute
  • 2026 Midyear Metals and Mining Outlook – S&P Global
  • Silver Supply Constraints Details in July 2026 USGS Mineral Commodity Summary
  • Silver Prices Show Sensitivity to Macro Risks Despite Tight Supply – Reuters August 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the silver cost curve reflects rising production costs driven primarily by higher energy prices and tighter environmental regulations impacting mining operations in top producers like Mexico and Peru. While recent technological improvements have trimmed costs for mid-tier producers, the overall supply compression risks tightening physical markets if demand from industrial and investment sectors rebounds strongly. Key uncertainty remains around inflation trajectories and potential geopolitical disruptions affecting silver supply chains.
  • Silver Production Costs and Market Update July 2026
  • Goldman Sachs Metals Research: Silver Cost Curve Analysis Q2 2026
  • Metals Focus Silver Market Forecast August 2026
  • Peru’s Mining Costs Pressure Silver Output, Report August 2026
  • Energy Price Impact on Silver Mining Costs – IEA Analysis July 2026

    • Platinum 1,752.74 (USD/t oz.)

  • Platinum prices in early August 2026 have declined moderately, pressured by easing global automotive demand amid sluggish EV catalyst growth and a softer jewelry market. Supply-side disruptions in South Africa persist, but inventory builds and substitution risks exert downward pressure. Key uncertainty remains around global economic growth trends and green energy transition pace, which could swing demand rapidly either way.
  • Platinum Prices Ease Amid Weaker Auto Demand - SFA Oxford
  • Spot Platinum Retreats on Inventories; Demand Concerns Rise
  • South African Platinum Group Metals Production Data - July 2026
  • Automotive Catalyst Trends and Platinum Use Outlook - Johnson Matthey, Q2 2026
  • As of mid-2026, platinum supply has tightened amid continued output disruptions in South African mines, which constitute over 70% of global supply. Demand growth is driven mainly by automotive catalytic converters amid stricter emissions standards and rising use in green hydrogen catalysts. However, persistent labor unrest and power instability in key mining regions pose supply risks, while platinum substitution in autocatalysts and fluctuating industrial demand add uncertainty to near-term balance.
  • South African Mine Disruptions Tighten Platinum Market - SFA Oxford July 2026
  • Platinum Demand Boost from Emission Norms in 2026 - IC Insights August 2026
  • Anglo American Platinum Semiannual Production Update July 2026
  • Johnson Matthey Q2 2026 Platinum Market Commentary
  • Bloomberg: Platinum Supply Risks Persist Amid South Africa Power and Labor Issues July 2026
  • As of August 2026, the platinum cost curve remains tight due to ongoing supply constraints primarily from South African mines amid labor unrest and higher energy costs. Marginal producers are challenged by rising extraction expenses, pushing the global cost curve upwards. Demand for automotive catalytic converters continues to support prices, but a potential slowdown in global automotive production poses downside risk to premium placement on the cost curve. Inventories are moderate, limiting near-term buffering capacity.
  • Johnson Matthey Platinum Market Outlook H2 2026
  • Sibanye Stillwater Q2 2026 Production & Cost Report
  • London Metal Exchange Platinum Price and Cost Curve Data – July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Platinum Market Tightness Amid South Africa Labor Disputes - July 2026
  • International Platinum Group Metals Association (IPA) Midyear Production Report 2026

    • Palladium 1,374.25 (USD/t oz.)

  • Palladium prices have declined about 7% through July 2026 amid ongoing concerns over slowing automotive demand in China and increased recycling supply. The metal's price pressure reflects weakening gasoline vehicle catalyst demand as the electric vehicle transition accelerates, counterbalanced by limited primary mine supply disruptions in Russia and South Africa. Key risk remains sustained demand uncertainty from the auto sector and potential geopolitical developments affecting Russian palladium flows, which could tighten the market unexpectedly.
  • Johnson Matthey July 2026 Palladium Market Report
  • Sibanye-Stillwater Q2 2026 Production and Palladium Outlook
  • LME Palladium Price Trends and Inventory Analysis – July 2026
  • Reuters: Palladium Demand Weakens Amid China Auto Slowdown, July 2026
  • As of mid-2026, palladium supply remains constrained due to persistent South African mining labor disruptions and limited new project ramp-ups. Demand is steady, driven primarily by automotive catalytic converter requirements amid tightening emission regulations globally, particularly in China and the EU. Inventory drawdowns continue, underpinning tight market balances. However, uncertainties loom from potential substitution risks with platinum and emerging electric vehicle penetration, which could reduce palladium's automotive use in the medium term.
  • Johnson Matthey 2026 H1 Palladium Market Report
  • Sibanye-Stillwater Q2 2026 Production and Market Update
  • IMF Commodities Price Update, July 2026
  • Reuters: Palladium Market Tightness Amid South Africa Labor Strikes - July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Palladium Demand Supported by Emission Rules but Faces Substitution Risks
  • As of mid-2026, the palladium cost curve shows upward pressure on marginal production costs mainly due to rising energy and labor expenses in major mining regions such as Russia and South Africa. Higher input costs have shifted the breakeven points upward, squeezing lower-grade and secondary supply sources. Demand remains robust, driven by automotive catalytic converter demand amid tightening emissions regulations. Key downside risks include geopolitical tensions affecting Russian output and potential substitution by alternative materials, which could alter the supply-demand balance and cost structure.
  • Sibanye Stillwater Q2 2026 Production and Cost Report
  • Norilsk Nickel H1 2026 Operational Results
  • Johnson Matthey Pd Market Update July 2026
  • Metals Focus August 2026: Palladium Cost Curve Analysis
  • Reuters: Palladium miners face rising costs amid tight market – Aug 2026

    • Copper 6.65 (USd/lb.)

  • Copper prices in early August 2026 have edged higher, supported by sustained industrial demand from China’s clean energy investments and a supply shortfall due to prolonged strikes at major South American mines. Investor sentiment remains cautiously bullish amid tight global inventories. However, risks include potential demand moderation if global economic growth slows unexpectedly, and supply may face volatility from geopolitical tensions affecting key producers.
  • LME Copper Price Trends and Market Commentary, August 2026
  • International Copper Study Group July 2026 Market Report
  • China’s Clean Energy Push Bolsters Copper Demand, Reuters, July 30, 2026
  • Strike Impact on Chilean Copper Output Persists, Mining Weekly, July 28, 2026
  • As of August 2026, copper supply is tightening due to unexpected production disruptions in Chile and Indonesia, combined with slowing new mine authorizations. Demand remains robust, supported by accelerating EV production and decarbonization infrastructure projects globally. Inventory drawdowns on major exchanges reflect this imbalance. Key risks include regulatory constraints on mining expansions and potential demand softening from China’s slowing industrial activity, which could moderate price gains.
  • ICSG July 2026 Copper Market Report
  • Chile Mining Ministry July 2026 Production Update
  • LME Copper Stocks Fall Amid Tightening Market - LME August 2026 Data
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Copper Supply-Demand Outlook August 2026
  • Reuters: Chinese Industrial Slowdown Weighs on Copper Demand - August 2026
  • As of August 2026, the global copper cost curve has shifted moderately higher driven by rising energy and labor costs amidst tighter environmental regulations affecting key producers in Chile and Peru. Higher operating expenses are compressing margins, particularly for lower-tier mines near the cost curve's top. Meanwhile, expanding demand for electric vehicles and grid upgrades sustains upward price pressure. Key risks include uncertain Chinese demand given recent lockdown easing, and potential supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions and local community actions.
  • International Copper Study Group July 2026 Monthly Report
  • Wood Mackenzie Copper Cost Update, Q3 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Copper Cost Curve Pressures, August 2026
  • Chile Mining Regulatory Update and Cost Impact, July 2026
  • Reuters: Copper Costs Rising Amid Global Supply Constraints, July 20, 2026

    • 3Mo Aluminum 3,223.00 (USD/MT)

  • As of early August 2026, 3-month aluminum prices have edged lower, reflecting a mild demand slowdown in key industrial sectors such as automotive and construction amid higher financing costs globally. Inventory buildup at LME warehouses has increased modestly, undermining near-term price support. Major supply-side disruptions remain limited, but downside risk persists if Chinese demand softens further or if energy cost pressures incentivize additional smelter curtailments in Europe. Market attention is shifting toward upcoming Chinese consumption data and macroeconomic policy signals for demand visibility.
  • LME Aluminum Inventories and Price Trends, July 2026
  • International Aluminium Institute July 2026 Supply-Demand Bulletin
  • Aluminum Prices Tumble as Global Demand Softens, Reuters August 3, 2026
  • China July 2026 Industrial Output Data Highlights Demand Weakness
  • Over the past three months through August 2026, global aluminum supply has tightened due to increased Chinese environmental restrictions and ongoing power rationing in key producing regions, constraining output. Demand remains robust, supported by the automotive and construction sectors recovering in Europe and North America. Inventory levels at major exchanges have declined, tightening the market balance. However, upside risks to supply exist if Chinese producers ramp up capacity post-restrictions or if energy costs decline, potentially easing tightness.
  • August 2026 LME Aluminum Stock Report
  • International Aluminum Institute Q2 2026 Market Review
  • China Power Curtailments Tighten Aluminum Output, Reuters, July 30, 2026
  • Wood Mackenzie Aluminum Market Outlook, July 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Aluminum Inventory Tightening in H2 2026
  • As of early August 2026, the 3-month aluminum cost curve indicates a modest upward shift driven primarily by higher input costs, notably alumina and electricity prices amid tightening global energy markets. Production rationalization in key smelting hubs (especially China and the Middle East) has compressed low-cost supply tiers. Risks to the curve include potential disruption from geopolitical tensions affecting raw material flows and evolving Chinese environmental policies, which could further affect capacity and cost structure.
  • International Aluminum Institute Q2 2026 Market Report
  • LME Aluminum 3-Month Price Trends and Cost Curve Analysis - August 2026
  • CRU Aluminum Cost Curve Update - July 2026
  • Aluminum Market Outlook: Energy Costs and Supply Tightening, S&P Global, July 2026
  • Aluminum Supply Dynamics in 2026: Impact of Chinese Environmental Policy, Bloomberg Intelligence, June 2026

    • 3Mo Zinc 3,673.50 (USD/MT)

  • Three-month zinc prices have edged higher in July and early August 2026, supported by tightening global supply as key mines in Australia and Peru face operational disruptions and delays. Additionally, reduced warehouse inventories on the LME have amplified the bullish sentiment. However, demand growth uncertainty from the slowing Chinese manufacturing sector remains a key downside risk, potentially capping further price gains in the near term.
  • LME Zinc Price and Inventory Update August 2026
  • Australia Zinc Mine Delays Tighten Market - CRU Insight July 2026
  • China Industrial Slowdown Clouds Zinc Demand Outlook - S&P Global Aug 2026
  • Zinc Market Fundamentals: Inventory Draw and Supply Risks July 2026
  • Over the past three months to August 2026, zinc supply has tightened due to a combination of operational disruptions at top global producers in Australia and Peru and ongoing low new mine project ramp-up. Demand remains robust, driven primarily by galvanizing activity in construction and infrastructure, especially in emerging markets. However, inventory levels on LME and SHFE exchanges have drawn down significantly, tightening physical availability. Key risk remains potential demand softening amid rising global interest rates, which could curtail industrial activity and impact zinc consumption.
  • ICSG July 2026 Zinc Market Report
  • LME Zinc Stocks Draw Amid Supply Constraints - LME Data July 2026
  • Glencore's Zinc Production Update Q2 2026
  • Reuters: Zinc Market Tightening on Supply Risks, Demand Resilience - August 2026
  • Fastmarkets: Zinc Inventories Hit 5-Year Low Amid Supply Disruptions - July 2026
  • As of early August 2026, the 3-month zinc cost curve remains pressured by rising energy and labor costs in key producing regions, notably in Australia and Kazakhstan, pushing marginal production costs higher. Despite moderate demand recovery in China and Europe supporting prices, elevated input expenses and facility maintenance schedules tighten the supply side. Key risks include potential disruptions from geopolitical tensions affecting ore supply and volatile energy prices, which could further steepen the cost curve or constrain production volumes.
  • CRU Zinc Market Outlook August 2026
  • ILZSG July 2026 Monthly Zinc Report
  • Fastmarkets Zinc Cost Curve Analysis, July 2026
  • LME Zinc 3M Prices and Inventory Data August 2026

    • 3Mo Tin 55,989.00 (USD/MT)

  • 3-month tin prices declined in July 2026 amid cautious demand outlook and elevated inventories at major exchanges. The recent price weakness primarily reflects subdued electronics manufacturing momentum and elevated LME warehouse stocks. However, production constraints in Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Myanmar, continue to support a floor under prices. Ongoing geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions remain key uncertainties that could tighten markets if realized, though demand softness poses a downside risk to near-term prices.
  • LME Monthly Market Report July 2026
  • International Tin Association July 2026 Market Update
  • Reuters: Tin Prices Slip Amid Demand Concerns, July 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Tin Supply Risks from Southeast Asia, June 2026
  • Tin supply in the last three months (May-July 2026) tightened moderately as Indonesian export restrictions limited ore shipments, and Malayan tin output faced weather disruption. Global demand, driven by continued electronics manufacturing and emerging EV battery applications, remained robust, putting upward pressure on prices. Inventory drawdowns on major exchanges underline tightening market conditions. A key uncertainty remains geopolitical risks in Southeast Asia and potential new export barriers that could further constrain supplies.
  • Indonesian Tin Export Restrictions Impact Q2-Q3 Supply
  • Malayan Tin Mines Report Output Delays From Monsoon Weather, July 2026
  • LME Tin Stocks Decline Amid Strong Electronics, EV Demand July 2026
  • International Tin Association 2026 Midyear Supply-Demand Review
  • Southeast Asian Geopolitical Risks Could Affect Tin Exports, Aug 2026
  • As of early August 2026, the 3-month tin cost curve reflects a modest upward shift driven by higher input costs and tight supply conditions amid Southeast Asia's recent mining disruptions. Rising energy and labor expenses further underpin higher marginal production costs. However, ongoing demand uncertainty tied to global tech sector weakness and potential substitution risks constrain upside pricing power. Inventory data remains balanced but vulnerable to sudden shifts in supply chain dynamics, maintaining a cautiously bullish but volatile outlook for near-term tin cost pricing.
  • International Tin Association July 2026 Market Report
  • LME Tin Price and Inventory Dashboard August 4, 2026
  • CRU Group Tin Market Analysis Q3 2026
  • Fastmarkets: Tin Production Costs Rise on Energy and Wage Pressures, July 2026
  • Benchmark Mineral Intelligence: Tin Supply Chain Risks, August 2026

    • Nickel 17,193.00 (USD/MT)

  • Nickel prices have declined modestly in July-August 2026, pressured by slowing demand growth from electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturers amid supply chain normalization after last year's disruptions. Indonesian output remains robust, sustaining global inventory levels and moderating price spikes. However, ongoing geopolitical risks in key producing regions and potential policy shifts on nickel export controls pose supply uncertainties that could reintroduce volatility.
  • LME Nickel Price Trends and Inventory Report, July 2026
  • Indonesia Nickel Output and Policy Review, July 2026
  • EV Battery Demand Softens, Impact on Nickel Prices - Bloomberg, July 29, 2026
  • World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, July 2026
  • As of mid-2026, nickel supply has tightened due to ongoing regulatory constraints in key producing countries, especially Indonesia, combined with slower mine ramp-ups. Demand remains robust, driven by continued growth in EV battery production despite some cautious end-user inventory management amid macroeconomic uncertainties. The key risk to the market is potential supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions affecting major producers and shifts in battery chemistries that could reduce nickel intensity.
  • International Nickel Study Group July 2026 Market Report
  • Bloomberg: Nickel Prices Steady as Supply Risks Persist, July 2026
  • Reuters: Indonesia’s Nickel Ore Export Policy Narrows Market in H1 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Battery Industry's Impact on Nickel Demand, Q2 2026
  • Fastmarkets: Nickel Supply Chain Constraints and Market Outlook, August 2026
  • As of August 2026, the nickel cost curve has been marked by rising production costs predominantly driven by escalating energy prices and stricter environmental regulations affecting Indonesian and Philippine smelters, key low-cost producers. Meanwhile, demand from electric vehicle battery manufacturers remains robust, maintaining upward pressure on nickel prices. However, supply-side constraints, particularly geopolitical risks and potential bottlenecks in nickel sulphate processing, inject uncertainty into the cost structure and eventual market equilibrium.
  • International Nickel Study Group August 2026 Report
  • Wood Mackenzie Nickel Cost Curve Update July 2026
  • S&P Global: Nickel Price and Cost Outlook August 2026
  • Reuters: Rising Energy Costs Pressure Nickel Miners Amid Battery Demand Surge
  • Bloomberg: Geopolitical Risks Tighten Nickel Supply Chains

    • Steel 579.00 (USD/MT)

  • Steel prices in August 2026 have stabilized after a mild decline in July, primarily driven by easing raw material costs and moderate demand in China and India, the two largest consumers. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting logistics and tariff uncertainties remain significant downside risks, potentially disrupting supply chains and pricing. Additionally, the shift toward greener steel production continues to shape market sentiment and capital allocation within the sector.
  • World Steel Association July 2026 Market Report
  • S&P Global Commodities Insights: Steel Prices August 2026 Outlook
  • Reuters: China’s Steel Demand Softens, Pressuring Global Prices
  • Financial Times: Geopolitical Risks Mount for Steel Supply Chains
  • Steel supply-demand in mid-2026 shows signs of tightening, driven primarily by robust construction and automotive sector growth in Asia and North America, coupled with supply constraints from recent environmental regulation-driven production cuts in major producers like China and India. However, elevated input costs and potential slower global economic growth pose downside risks to demand forecasts, while geopolitical trade tensions remain a key uncertainty affecting export flows and inventory levels.
  • World Steel Association August 2026 Market Report
  • CRU Group: Global Steel Market Outlook July 2026
  • S&P Global: Steel Supply Tightens Amid Policy Cuts and Strong Demand
  • China Steel Association: July 2026 Production and Demand Data
  • Reuters: Steel Prices Rally as Global Supply Constraints Persist
  • As of August 2026, the global steel cost curve shows upward pressure mainly driven by rising coking coal and iron ore prices amid supply disruptions from major mining regions. Energy costs remain elevated, especially in Europe and China, pushing higher-cost producers to the margin. Demand is moderating due to slowing infrastructure spending and automotive sector headwinds, adding uncertainty for mid-curve producers. Key risks include further geopolitical tensions affecting raw material flows and potential rapid shifts in Chinese steel output policies.
  • World Steel Association August 2026 Cost Update
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Steel Production Cost Trends July 2026
  • CRU Group Analysis August 2026: Raw Material Price Impact on Steelmakers
  • Bloomberg: Steel Cost Curve Tightens on Raw Material Supply Risks, Aug 2026
  • Reuters: Global Steel Margins Squeeze from Cost Pressures, August 2026

    • Corn 4.60 (USd/bu.)

  • Corn prices in early August 2026 have declined modestly amid forecasts of a larger-than-expected US harvest, following improved crop conditions reported in the Midwest. Weather remains a key factor, with upcoming September yield revisions posing uncertainty. Global supply concerns have eased slightly due to stable production outlooks in major exporters, but elevated input costs and export demand from key markets like China continue to influence price volatility.
  • USDA Crop Progress and Supply Report August 3, 2026
  • CME Group Corn Futures Market Update, August 4, 2026
  • Reuters: Corn Prices Slip on US Crop Outlook Aug 4, 2026
  • International Grains Council Grain Market Report July 2026
  • As of July 2026, global corn supply remains tight, pressured by lower U.S. yields due to persistent drought in the Midwest and reduced crop area. Brazilian exports have ramped up but face logistical delays, limiting their offset to U.S. shortfalls. Rising feed demand from China and expanding ethanol production in the U.S. underpin firm global consumption. Key uncertainty hinges on August weather and South American crop conditions, which could either alleviate or exacerbate the supply tightness heading into the 2026-27 marketing year.
  • USDA July WASDE Report on Corn Supply-Demand
  • Brazilian Corn Export Bottlenecks Persist, USDA
  • ICAC July 2026 Market Report — Corn Balances and Outlook
  • Agri — Market Insights: Drought Impact Dents US Corn Yield Prospects
  • China Corn Feed Demand Growth to Support Prices Through 2026-27
  • As of August 2026, the corn cost curve reflects rising marginal production costs driven primarily by higher fertilizer prices and tightening global fertilizer supply chains. Elevated energy costs and persistent weather uncertainties in key growing regions add upward pressure on breakeven levels. While recent USDA reports indicate stable acreage, yield risks from variable rainfall patterns could exacerbate cost stress for higher-cost producers. Potential policy shifts in export regulations and input subsidies remain key uncertainties influencing the cost curve dynamics.
  • USDA August 2026 Crop Production Report
  • Fertilizer Market Tightness Lifts Corn Production Costs – IFA July 2026 Bulletin
  • CME Group Corn Futures Pricing and Cost Structure Update, July 2026
  • Rabobank Grain Sector Outlook: Marginal Corn Costs Rise Amid Inflation Pressures – July 2026
  • Climate Effects on Corn Yields: USDA and NOAA Joint Report, June 2026

    • Wheat 6.38 (USd/bu.)

  • Wheat prices in August 2026 have risen modestly, supported primarily by tighter supply outlooks in the Black Sea region due to extended geopolitical tensions affecting Ukrainian exports. Crop conditions in the US and Canada are mixed but generally stable, limiting downside pressure. A key uncertainty remains the potential shifts in China's import demand as they finalize procurement plans for the fall, which could further influence price volatility into Q4.
  • USDA August 2026 World Agricultural Supply-Demand Estimates
  • IFCN Grain Market Monthly - August 2026 Report
  • Reuters: Wheat Prices Rise on Ukraine Export Risks, August 3, 2026
  • CME Group Wheat Futures Daily Update August 5, 2026
  • Wheat supply-demand in August 2026 shows a modest production decline in key exporters due to adverse weather in the US and Canada, tightening global availability. Demand remains firm, supported by sustained import needs from Asia and North Africa amid geopolitical uncertainties affecting Black Sea exports. Elevated input costs and unpredictable rainfall patterns pose risks to yield recovery in the upcoming season, creating downside supply risk and potential upward price pressure.
  • USDA August 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
  • International Grains Council July 2026 Grain Market Report
  • FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation July 2026
  • Reuters: Wheat rally influenced by supply risks from North America, August 3 2026
  • Bloomberg: Geopolitical Strains Tighten Global Wheat Supplies July 2026
  • As of early August 2026, the global wheat cost curve reflects rising production costs driven by higher energy and fertilizer prices amid tightening supply due to adverse weather in key growing regions such as the US Midwest and parts of Europe. These pressures elevate break-even prices for lower-efficiency producers, flattening the cost curve. However, demand uncertainties linked to shifts in Chinese import policies and potential logistical disruptions in Black Sea exports create risks to price and production stability.
  • USDA August 2026 Wheat Outlook Report
  • International Grains Council Monthly Grain Market Report July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Fertilizer and Energy Costs Push Wheat Production Higher
  • Chicago Board of Trade Wheat Futures: Cost-Curve Analysis August 2026
  • World Bank Commodities Price Forecast Report July 2026

    • Oats 2.95 (USd/bu.)

  • Oats prices have declined modestly in early August 2026 due to improved harvest forecasts in the US and Canada following favorable weather conditions. Supply side gains have eased concerns about tight inventory levels seen earlier this year. However, ongoing volatility remains a risk tied to uncertain demand from feed markets amid fluctuating livestock production costs and potential export disruptions from geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.
  • USDA July 2026 Oats Outlook Report
  • Grain Market Update: Oats Supply Strengthens in North America - Agri — Commodity News July 2026
  • CME Group Oats Futures Market Commentary August 2026
  • FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation, July 2026
  • Oats supply-demand balances in mid-2026 reflect reduced North American production amid adverse weather conditions impacting yields, particularly in Canada and the northern US. Global demand remains steady with moderate growth in feed and food sectors. However, elevated input costs and logistical bottlenecks constrain supply chain flexibility, posing risks to near-term availability and price stability. Ongoing monitoring of weather patterns and trade flows is critical for price and supply forecasts.
  • USDA WASDE Report August 2026 - Oats
  • Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Crop Report July 2026
  • International Grains Council Grain Market Report July 2026
  • Reuters: Weather Challenges Keep North American Oats Output Tight - August 2026
  • Bloomberg: Global Oats Demand Steady Despite Supply Risks - August 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the oats cost curve reflects upward pressure on production costs, driven largely by rising fertilizer prices and tighter energy markets affecting input costs across major producing regions (US, Canada, EU). While yields have been stable, weather-related variability remains a key uncertainty impacting variable and fixed costs. Inventory drawdowns amid sustained demand for oats in feed and health food sectors support firmer pricing, though potential shifts in global crop plantings pose risks to cost structures going forward.
  • USDA July 2026 Crop Report – Oats Production Cost Update
  • USDA Economic Research Service: Agricultural Input Cost Index Trends July 2026
  • CME Group Oats Futures Cost Curve and Inventory Analysis, Q2 2026
  • Rabobank Mid-2026 Global Grain Cost Analysis: Oats and Competitors
  • Agrimoney July 2026: Rising Fertilizer Costs Impact Northern Hemisphere Oats Growers

    • Rough Rice 13.87 (USD/cwt)

  • As of early August 2026, rough rice futures prices have edged modestly lower amid easing concerns over U.S. crop conditions following favorable mid-summer weather. The main driver is robust output forecasts in key producing regions, supporting near-term supply. However, uncertainty remains from international demand fluctuations, especially from Southeast Asia, and potential export policy shifts in major exporters like India and Thailand, which could tighten global availability and reinstate upward price pressure.
  • USDA August 2026 Rice Outlook Report
  • Chicago Rough Rice Futures Update – CME Group July 2026
  • International Rice Market Review – FAO July 2026
  • Rice Export Policy Changes in India and Impact on Prices – Reuters July 30, 2026
  • As of early August 2026, U.S. rough rice supply tightness persists due to below-average harvest projections driven by adverse weather in key southern states, notably Texas and Arkansas. Export demand remains robust, sustained by strong purchases from Asia and Africa, tightening global availability. However, elevated domestic prices and potential shifts in import policies among top buyers pose downside risks to demand growth. Inventory withdrawals remain elevated, keeping stocks at historically low levels relative to use, underscoring vulnerability to further supply disruptions or demand shocks.
  • USDA August 2026 Rice Outlook Report
  • International Rice Research Institute: Global Rice Market Update July 2026
  • Reuters: U.S. Rough Rice Harvest Disrupted by Summer Drought
  • World Bank Agriculture Commodities Report July 2026: Rice Sector Analysis
  • Chicago Board of Trade Rice Futures Summary July 2026
  • As of August 2026, the rough rice cost curve signals moderate upward pressure due to tighter U.S. water supply constraints impacting key production areas like Arkansas and Texas. Elevated irrigation costs and sporadic drought conditions have shifted marginal production costs higher, compressing low-cost output capacity. However, genetic improvements and low fertilizer prices partly offset cost pressures. The main risk remains unpredictable regional weather variability, which could sharply shift the supply-cost balance during the key harvest window.
  • USDA August 2026 Rice Outlook Report
  • July 2026 USDA Rice Cost of Production Survey
  • Arkansas Rice Cost Pressures Rise Amid Water Supply Issues - Bloomberg, July 28, 2026
  • Regional Drought Impact on Southern U.S. Rice Production - USDA Drought Monitor, July 2026
  • Global Rice Cost Curve and Production Trends Q2 2026 - International Grains Council

    • Soybean 10.24 (USd/bu.)

  • Soybean prices in early August 2026 have declined modestly following USDA reports projecting a near-record U.S. soybean harvest amid favorable weather conditions. The abundant supply outlook has pressured futures despite strong Chinese demand. However, the market remains sensitive to South American production risks and potential export disruptions due to geopolitical tensions. Currency fluctuations and evolving biofuel mandates also pose downside risks to price stability.
  • USDA August Crop Report Highlights Record Soybean Harvest
  • Soybean Futures Inch Lower on Supply Outlook, Strong China Demand
  • Brazil and Argentina Weather Woes Tighten South American Soybean Supply
  • Biofuel Policy Changes and Currency Swings Cloud Soybean Market Prospects
  • As of August 2026, USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report shows a slight increase in global soybean supply driven by record harvests in South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina. U.S. production and export forecasts have been revised modestly downward reflecting weather stress and logistical delays. Demand remains firm, supported by strong feed and crush usage in China. Key risks include potential adverse weather in the U.S. during the critical pod-fill stage and geopolitical tensions impacting export flows, notably between major producers and China.
  • USDA WASDE Report July 2026
  • Brazil's 2026 Soybean Harvest Nears Record, CONAB Report July 2026
  • Argentina Soy Crop Outlook July 2026, Bolsa de Cereales
  • China's Soybean Imports and Demand Trends H1 2026, China Customs
  • Reuters: Weather and Trade Risks Weigh on U.S. Soybean Market Aug 2026
  • Soybean cost curves in mid-2026 indicate rising production costs driven primarily by elevated fertilizer prices and tightening labor availability in key producing regions such as Brazil and the U.S. Midwest. This has shifted the marginal cost upwards, pressuring lower-margin producers and potentially limiting acreage expansion ahead of the 2026–27 cycle. Weather volatility and evolving biofuel demand remain significant uncertainties that could further impact cost structures and profitability thresholds.
  • USDA August 2026 Crop Cost and Return Survey
  • Brazilian Soybean Cost Outlook Q3 2026 - CONAB Report
  • Fertilizer Price Impact on Crop Production Costs - International Fertilizer Association July 2026
  • Soybean Production Margins Under Pressure as Input Costs Rise - Bloomberg Agriculture, July 2026
  • FAO Agricultural Market Price Trends and Risks - July 2026

    • Canola 764.50 (CAD/MT)

  • Canola prices in early August 2026 have shown moderate gains, driven primarily by tighter global supplies amid below-average harvest forecasts in key production regions such as Canada and Australia. Weather-related yield concerns and logistical bottlenecks continue to constrain availability. However, demand uncertainty from key importing regions, especially in Asia, poses a risk to sustained price strength, as macroeconomic slowdowns could weigh on downstream vegetable oil consumption and biodiesel mandates.
  • July 2026 Canola Outlook Report - Canadian Grain Commission
  • Agri-Food Market Trends: Canola Prices Update July 2026 - USDA ERS
  • Canola Market Tightening on Lower Crop Estimates - Reuters, August 3, 2026
  • Australian Canola Production Cuts Support Price Rise - Argus Media, July 29, 2026
  • As of August 2026, global canola supply is tightening due to below-average yields in major producing regions, notably Canada and Australia, driven by adverse weather including drought and erratic rainfall patterns. Reduced output is pressuring global stocks, while demand remains steady with growth in Asian import markets. Key risk lies in weather volatility during the critical late-summer growing phase, which could further constrain supply and elevate price volatility through the 2026/27 marketing year.
  • Canada July 2026 Canola Production Estimate
  • Australian Canola Crop Outlook August 2026
  • USDA WASDE Report July 2026 - Canola Supply-Demand
  • FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Global Canola Stocks Tighten Amid Weather Risks July 2026
  • As of August 2026, the canola cost curve shows upward pressure due to rising input costs, including fertilizer and energy, while unfavorable weather in key growing regions has tightened supply. These factors are pushing the marginal cost of production higher, narrowing margins for lower-cost producers and contributing to price resilience. Risks include potential global demand shifts linked to evolving biofuel policies and uncertain weather patterns in the upcoming planting season, which may alter cost structures and production volumes further.
  • AAFC August 2026 Canola Market Update
  • ICIS August 2026 Agricultural Inputs Report
  • Blasé Commodity Analytics: August Canola Cost Curve Analysis 2026
  • Reuters: Canola Prices Supported by Rising Production Costs - July 2026
  • USDA WASDE July 2026 Report - Oilseed Supply and Use

    • Cocoa 6,108.00 (USD/MT)

  • As of August 2026, cocoa prices have stabilized after a moderate rally driven by improved harvest prospects in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's top producers, and elevated demand from leading chocolate manufacturers ahead of the holiday season. Supply concerns remain tempered by favorable weather conditions and recent policy support in producing countries. However, risks persist from potential labor shortages and geopolitical tensions affecting West African exports, which could tighten supply unexpectedly and push prices higher.
  • ICCO August 2026 Quarterly Market Report
  • July 2026 Cocoa Prices Firm on Harvest Outlook
  • Ghana Cocoa Board Updates Policy on Export Quotas, July 2026
  • LME Cocoa Weekly Report August 3, 2026
  • As of August 2026, global cocoa supply tightness persists amid reduced output in Ivory Coast and Ghana due to adverse weather and continued pest pressures. Demand remains robust, supported by steady confectionery growth and emerging market consumption. Inventories are declining, underpinning sustained price support. Key risks include further climatic disruptions in West Africa and potential labor shortages during the main harvest, which could exacerbate supply constraints and volatility.
  • August 2026 Cocoa Market Update – ICCO
  • Ivory Coast Cocoa Output Falls 5% in 2025/26 - Ag Ministry Report
  • Ghana Cocoa Board July 2026 Production Data
  • Cocoa Prices Hold Firm on Tight Supply Outlook - Bloomberg August 3, 2026
  • FAO July 2026 Crop Weather Assessment: West Africa Cocoa Regions
  • As of August 2026, the cocoa cost curve reflects moderate upward pressure on production costs driven by rising labor expenses and increased fertilizer prices in West Africa, the largest supply region. Current mid-tier producers have narrowed margins due to these cost increases, while high-cost, smaller-scale farmers face heightened financial stress. Key risks include weather variability amid an El Niño forecast and potential regulatory impacts on fertilizer imports, which could further tighten supply and alter cost structures.
  • ICCO Quarterly Bulletin July 2026 - Cocoa Supply Costs
  • World Bank Cocoa Cost and Price Analysis July 2026
  • Reuters: West African Cocoa Producers Face Rising Costs Amid Weather Concerns – July 30, 2026
  • Bloomberg: Fertilizer Price Surge Squeezes Cocoa Farmers in Ivory Coast – July 23, 2026

    • Coffee 3.11 (USd/lb.)

  • As of early August 2026, coffee prices have seen a moderate uptick driven primarily by ongoing drought conditions in major Arabica-producing regions such as Brazil and Colombia, impacting crop yields. Supply chain bottlenecks persist but are easing gradually, relieving some upward pressure. Market participants remain attentive to weather volatility and potential new regulatory measures in key producing countries, which could introduce further price fluctuations and supply risks.
  • ICCO Monthly Coffee Market Report - July 2026
  • Brazil Coffee Output Faces Drought Impact in 2026 Crop, Analysts Say
  • Coffee Prices Extend Gains as Weather Risks Persist for Crops
  • Colombian Coffee Federation Highlights Production Challenges Amid Climate Stress
  • As of August 2026, global coffee supply remains under mild pressure from adverse weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam, the two largest producers, limiting output growth despite stable demand in key consuming markets. Brazilian frost episodes in mid-2026 affected arabica yields, tightening export availability and pushing prices upward. Meanwhile, demand growth is steady but constrained by inflationary pressures on consumer discretionary spending. Supply chain disruptions have eased, but climatic volatility poses a significant near-term risk to market balance.
  • ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026
  • Brazil Coffee Crop Report August 2026 - Conab
  • Vietnam Coffee Production Outlook Q3 2026 - USDA
  • Coffee Prices Rise on Brazil Frost, Demand Steady - Reuters July 2026
  • World Coffee Consumption Trends 2026 - International Coffee Organization
  • As of mid-2026, the coffee cost curve reflects elevated production costs driven primarily by continued drought impacts in Brazil and rising labor expenses across major growing regions. These factors have pushed premium-grade Arabica costs higher on the curve, pressuring margins for lower-tier producers. Potential volatility remains due to climatic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions affecting trade logistics, which could further disrupt supply and cost structures.
  • ICO Monthly Market Report July 2026
  • Brazil Drought Tightens Coffee Supply, Lifts Prices - Reuters Aug 2026
  • Rabobank Coffee Market Outlook August 2026
  • ICE Coffee Futures Update July 2026
  • FAO Agricultural Market Report July 2026 - Coffee Section

    • Sugar 0.15 (USd/lb.)

  • As of early August 2026, sugar prices have moderately declined after peaking in mid-2026, driven by improved output forecasts from Brazil and India, the two largest producers. Favorable weather and expanded planting areas have underpinned supply growth, easing previous tightness concerns. However, demand uncertainty remains amid slower global economic growth and potential policy shifts on ethanol mandates in key markets, which could constrain sugar use in biofuel production and keep prices volatile.
  • USDA Sugar Market Outlook – July 2026
  • International Sugar Organization World Sugar Market Review July 2026
  • Brazil Revises Up 2026/27 Sugar Crop Forecast on Rainfall
  • Sugar Price Pressure Trends Amid Ethanol Policy Uncertainty
  • As of August 2026, global sugar supply has tightened due to lower output forecasts from key producers like Brazil and India amid adverse weather and delayed harvests. Demand growth remains steady driven by emerging markets and ethanol blending mandates. Inventory drawdowns are intensifying price support, but ongoing uncertainties around El Niño effects and regulatory shifts in major consumer countries pose downside risks to near-term balance.
  • August 2026 Sugar Market Outlook by International Sugar Organization
  • Brazil Sugar Crop Forecast Slashed in July 2026 – UNICA Report
  • India's Sugar Production Cut Forecast for 2026-27 Season - Indian Ministry of Agriculture
  • Sugar Inventories Fall Sharply as Demand Outpaces Supply – Reuters, July 2026
  • El Niño Weather Risks Cloud Sugar Harvest Prospects – Bloomberg, July 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the global sugar cost curve reflects rising production costs primarily driven by increased energy prices and tightening labor markets in key producing regions like Brazil and India. This inflation in input costs has pushed marginal producers upward along the cost curve, potentially reducing output from higher-cost suppliers. A significant uncertainty remains around weather patterns in major growing areas, notably Brazil’s variable rainfall, which could tighten supply further or alleviate cost pressures if favorable. Market dynamics remain sensitive to ethanol policy shifts, especially in Brazil, affecting sugarcane allocation and influencing the cost structure.
  • USDA WASDE July 2026 Sugar Production Outlook
  • International Sugar Organization Monthly Report July 2026
  • Brazil Sugar Cost Pressures Amid Energy Price Rally - Reuters July 28, 2026
  • Rabobank: Global Sugar Cost Curve Dynamics H1 2026
  • ICAC World Sugar Market Outlook August 2026

    • Orange Juice 1.60 (USd/lb.)

  • As of August 2026, orange juice prices have risen modestly due to tightening supply linked to adverse weather effects in Florida's growing regions, which have impacted crop yields. Strong demand from both domestic consumption and export markets supports the upward pressure. However, uncertainties remain around the extent of recovery in Brazilian harvests later this year, which could alleviate supply constraints and cap price increases.
  • USDA Crop Progress and Outlook - July 2026
  • Florida Orange Crops Face Weather Challenges - Reuters July 2026
  • ICE Orange Juice Futures Market Report - July 31, 2026
  • Brazilian Orange Harvest Outlook Weighs on Global Prices - Bloomberg August 2026
  • As of August 2026, global orange juice supply is tightening, driven primarily by adverse weather in Brazil’s main growing regions, compounding a slower-than-expected recovery from citrus greening disease. Key producers are reporting below-average yields, placing upward pressure on prices. Demand remains steady with modest growth from North American and European markets. However, risks include potential El Niño impacts later this year which could disrupt crop conditions further, creating supply-side volatility and challenging inventory replenishment ahead of peak Q4 consumption.
  • Brazil Citrus Production Forecast July 2026
  • USDA July 2026 Citrus Monthly Report
  • Global Orange Juice Market Tightens on Brazil Crop Woes
  • International Citrus Growers Association: August Supply-Demand Update
  • Met Office Forecast: El Niño Signal May Affect Brazil Harvest
  • As of mid-2026, the orange juice cost curve is constrained by lingering adverse weather impacts in Brazil, the world's largest producer, with recent frost events raising extraction costs and tightening supply. Rising input costs, including fertilizer and transportation, have shifted the curve upward. However, strong global demand recovery supports firm prices. Key risks include the upcoming Southeast US hurricane season which could disrupt supply chains and impact costs further, adding volatility to market price dynamics.
  • USDA August 2026 Citrus Outlook
  • Brazil’s 2026 Frost Impact on Orange Supply and Costs
  • ICE July 2026 Orange Juice Futures Summary
  • Rabobank H2 2026 Citrus Cost Analysis
  • NOAA 2026 US Hurricane Outlook and Potential Agricultural Impact

    • Cotton 0.83 (USd/lb.)

  • Cotton prices have weakened moderately in mid-2026 due to a combination of abundant global supply from record output in the US and India and softening demand from key textile-consuming countries amid ongoing restructuring in apparel manufacturing. Inventory levels remain elevated, pressuring spot and futures prices. However, weather uncertainties entering the new planting season and volatile energy prices pose upside risks to production costs and export flows, creating potential price fluctuations in the coming months.
  • USDA Cotton Outlook Report July 2026
  • ICAC Monthly Cotton Market Review August 2026
  • Cotton Prices Slip on Global Supply Surplus - Reuters July 24, 2026
  • Energy Costs and Textile Demand Weigh on Cotton Futures - Bloomberg August 1, 2026
  • As of mid-2026, global cotton supply has tightened due to adverse weather conditions reducing yields in major producers like the U.S. and India. Demand remains firm driven by recovering textile sector growth and expanding apparel exports, tightening stock levels worldwide. Key risk centers on escalating input costs and potential geopolitical trade tensions affecting export flows, which could exacerbate volatility in cotton availability and pricing through late 2026.
  • USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade Monthly Report July 2026
  • ICAC August 2026 Cotton Supply and Demand Brief
  • Bloomberg: Global Cotton Stocks Shrink on Lower Yields July 2026
  • Reuters: Cotton Prices Rally on Demand Recovery and Supply Concerns August 1, 2026
  • ICAC Monthly Newsletter July 2026
  • As of August 2026, the global cotton cost curve is flattening amid rising input costs and regional supply shifts. Higher energy and fertilizer prices, particularly in major producing regions such as India and the US, are pushing up average break-even costs. Lower crop yields in some key areas due to adverse weather have also tightened supplies, moving production up the curve. A key uncertainty remains the potential impact of emerging demand slowdowns in China and textile industry decarbonization pressures, which may compress margins for higher-cost producers.
  • USDA August 2026 Cotton Outlook Report
  • ICAC July 2026 Quarterly Cotton Market Review
  • Rabobank: Rising Cost Pressures Shift Global Cotton Cost Curve - July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Cotton Production Costs Rise Amid Weather & Supply Shocks - Aug 2026
  • Morgan Stanley Commodity Strategy: Cotton Cost Dynamics and Supply Outlook - July 2026

    • Lumber 0.00 (USD/1000 board feet)

  • Lumber prices in mid-2026 have experienced modest stabilization after volatile swings earlier in the year, driven primarily by a combination of slowing U.S. housing starts and recovering supply chains in Canada and the U.S. Recent price pressures reflect concerns about persistently elevated mortgage rates dampening demand, while ongoing wildfire impacts in key producing regions pose supply-side risks. Inventory levels remain above the five-year average, suggesting limited immediate upside but heightened sensitivity to shifts in construction activity or forest-related disruptions.
  • Lumber Market Update July 2026 - Random Lengths
  • USDA Forest Service July 2026 Timber Market Report
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Lumber Prices Snapshot August 2026
  • Reuters: Lumber prices steady as U.S. homebuilding slows, supply fears linger
  • Lumber supply-demand dynamics in mid-2026 reflect tightening inventories amid rising residential construction activity in the US and Canada. Limited timber harvests driven by environmental restrictions and wildfire impacts constrain supply expansion, leading to upward price pressure. Demand uncertainty remains elevated due to potential mortgage rate volatility and recession risks, which could curb housing starts and weigh on future lumber consumption.
  • North American Lumber Market Update July 2026
  • US Census: July 2026 New Residential Construction Report
  • Wildfire Impacts on Timber Supply - USFS Report July 2026
  • Lumber Prices Reflect Supply Constraints, Barclays Analysis August 2026
  • Canada Forestry Outlook Q2 2026 – Natural Resources Canada
  • As of August 2026, the lumber cost curve is experiencing upward pressure driven primarily by constrained Canadian softwood timber supplies amid export restrictions and rising transportation expenses. U.S. housing starts have stabilized but remain below peak, limiting demand expansion. Key uncertainty stems from potential renewed trade policy shifts between the U.S. and Canada, which could further disrupt supply chains and alter cost dynamics in the near term.
  • Canadian Softwood Lumber Export Report July 2026
  • Lumber Futures Prices and Cost Drivers in Q2 2026
  • US Housing Starts and Timber Demand Update July 2026
  • Forest Products Annual Market Review Mid-2026
  • Trade Policy Impact on Lumber Supply Chains August 2026

    • Ethanol 2.16 (USD/gal.)

  • Ethanol prices have declined modestly in July 2026 following a seasonal slowdown in U.S. summer fuel demand and rising corn input costs amid adverse Midwest weather conditions. The key driver remains corn price volatility, which has elevated production costs, constraining ethanol output gains despite continued policy support for renewable fuels. Downside risk persists from potential shifts in U.S. biofuel blending mandates and tightening export prospects due to international trade uncertainties, which may cap upside in ethanol pricing near term.
  • USDA July 2026 Ethanol Market Update
  • EIA June 2026 Monthly Biofuels Review
  • Reuters: Corn Costs Weigh on Ethanol Margins July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Renewable Fuel Mandate Uncertainty Limits Ethanol Gains
  • As of August 2026, ethanol supply growth in the U.S. has moderated due to lingering corn price inflation and tighter feedstock availability, while demand remains robust with steady gasoline blending mandates and rising exports, particularly to Asia. The EPA's recent reaffirmation of Renewable Fuel Standard targets supports sustained demand but biofuel producers face risks from potential upcoming changes in federal blending policies and drought impacts on corn yields. Inventory levels are stable but carry downside pressures if adverse weather effects persist into the fall.
  • August 2026 USDA WASDE Report - Ethanol Outlook
  • EPA Reaffirms 2026 RFS Volumes with Support for Biofuel Demand
  • EIA Ethanol Production and Inventories - July 2026 Data
  • Corn Crop Conditions and Impact on Ethanol Feedstock - USDA Weekly Report July 2026
  • Reuters: Rising Global Ethanol Demand Boosts U.S. Exports in Mid-2026
  • As of August 2026, the ethanol production cost curve is influenced by rising feedstock costs, notably corn prices elevated by global weather disruptions. Producers at the lower end of the cost curve benefit from improved processing efficiencies, but upward pressure on input costs constrains margins sector-wide. A key risk is potential shifts in US Renewable Fuel Standard policies and international trade tariffs, which could materially affect ethanol demand forecasts and thus cost curve dynamics.
  • USDA August 2026 Grain and Ethanol Report
  • IEA Biofuels Market Update July 2026
  • EIA August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook: Ethanol
  • Renewable Fuels Association: August 2026 Ethanol Cost Trends
  • Reuters: Rising Corn Prices Pressure Ethanol Margins, July 2026

    • Live Cattle 2.28 (USd/lb.)

  • Live cattle prices in early August 2026 have retreated modestly after peaking in mid-2026, pressured primarily by rising feed costs and subdued demand in key export markets, notably China and Mexico. The seasonal increase in cattle slaughter has added downward pressure, while ongoing drought conditions in major U.S. cattle-producing regions constrain herd rebuilding efforts. Key uncertainty remains around feed grain price volatility and international trade dynamics, which could influence summer and fall price trends.
  • USDA Cattle Market Outlook August 2026
  • CME Live Cattle Futures Price Update – August 2026
  • Rabobank Report: Livestock Market Outlook July 2026
  • Reuters: U.S. Live Cattle Prices Slip Amid Feed Cost Concerns – July 2026
  • Live cattle supply tightened in July 2026 due to slower-than-expected herd rebuilding following drought conditions earlier this year. Reduced placements and higher feed costs have limited feeder cattle availability, pressuring supply. Demand remains robust, supported by steady domestic beef consumption and export growth, particularly to Asia. Key uncertainty centers on weather patterns in the Midwest through Q3, which could either constrain or ease cattle supplies further, impacting market tightness and prices.
  • USDA July 2026 Cattle Report
  • CME Group Market Insight: Live Cattle Supply Trends August 2026
  • August 2026 USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
  • Rabobank Q3 2026 Livestock Sector Update
  • Reuters: US live cattle prices firm on supply concerns, August 2026
  • As of early August 2026, the live cattle cost curve reveals tightening supplies due to reduced feeding operations amid higher feed costs and increased drought impact in key US cattle regions driving production costs higher. This is pushing production towards higher-cost marginal producers and constraining market expansion. Pricing dynamics face uncertainty from potential feed grain price volatility and shifting export demand, which could widen the cost dispersion and pressure profitability at the lower end of the curve.
  • USDA August 2026 Livestock Report
  • CME Group: Live Cattle Futures Market Update August 2026
  • Rabobank Mid-Year Beef Market Outlook 2026
  • US Feed Grain Prices and Impact on Cattle Production Costs July 2026
  • Drought Monitor US: Livestock Regions August 2026

    • Feeder Cattle 3.46 (USd/lb.)

  • Feeder cattle prices have softened modestly in early August 2026 amid seasonal market pressures and elevated feed costs that constrain rancher buying interest. The recent decline reflects a cautious outlook from feedlot operators anticipating weaker demand for fed cattle and ongoing export uncertainties due to trade policy shifts. Key risks include weather-related forage conditions impacting supply and further trade policy changes out of major importing countries that could tighten market balances.
  • USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook – July 2026
  • CME Feeder Cattle Futures Prices and Market Commentary August 2026
  • August 2026 Cattle — Market Report: Feedlot Demand Softens Amid Uncertainty
  • Reuters: US Feeder Cattle Prices Slip as Export Trade Uncertainty Lingers - July 2026
  • Feeder cattle supply in mid-2026 has tightened slightly due to prolonged drought conditions in key U.S. cattle-producing regions, constraining pasture availability and prompting accelerated market placements. Demand remains steady but faces cost pressure from elevated feed prices and persistent inflation in input costs. The main risk for near-term price stability is the potential for weather disruptions and volatile feed grain markets, which could exacerbate supply constraints or dampen feeder demand amid tight margins.
  • USDA Cattle on Feed Report July 2026
  • USDA Weekly Livestock Market Report, July 2026
  • CME Group Feeder Cattle Futures Market Report - July 2026
  • Rabobank Agri Commodity Outlook August 2026: Cattle Supply Pressure
  • Reuters Analysis: US Cattle Supply Tightens As Drought Limits Pasture Gains, Aug 2026
  • In August 2026, the feeder cattle cost curve shows upward pressure on breakeven prices driven by rising feed costs, particularly corn prices, which surged due to adverse weather in key US grain regions. This has shifted the margin breakeven higher for most producers, compressing profitability despite stable feeder cattle futures. A key uncertainty remains demand elasticity amid tighter consumer beef budgets and potential export market volatility linked to recent trade policy shifts.
  • USDA Crop Progress Report - July 2026
  • USDA Cattle Cost of Production Estimates Q2 2026
  • August 2026 CME Feeder Cattle Futures Market Overview
  • Rabobank Livestock Quarterly Q3 2026
  • USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook July 2026

    • Lean Hogs 0.84 (USd/lb.)

  • As of early August 2026, Lean hog prices have softened moderately following a mid-2026 peak driven by elevated feed costs and strong export demand earlier in the year. The recent downward pressure stems largely from growing US domestic pork inventory levels and slowing demand growth in key export markets such as China. Weather disruptions in the US Midwest and potential tightening of feed grain supplies present ongoing supply-side risks that could limit further price declines.
  • USDA WASDE Report July 2026 - Pork and Feed Outlook
  • CME Lean Hog Futures Price Update August 2026
  • Rabobank: Global Pork Market Dynamics July 2026
  • Reuters: US Pork Exports Slow Amid Demand Concerns July 2026
  • As of August 2026, lean hog supply has tightened modestly due to slower-than-expected hog slaughter amid recent heatwaves affecting hog weights and processing throughput. Demand remains resilient domestically and in key export markets, notably China, supporting firmer futures prices. However, risks to the supply side persist, including ongoing feed cost inflation and potential disruptions from emerging animal health concerns, which could constrain hog output further and add volatility to market balances in the coming months.
  • USDA August Hogs and Pigs Report 2026
  • CME Group Lean Hogs Market Commentary August 2026
  • USDA WASDE Report July 2026 - Livestock Section
  • Rabobank Pork Quarterly August 2026
  • Reuters: China Pork Demand Supports Lean Hog Prices July 2026
  • As of August 2026, the lean hog cost curve reflects rising production costs driven primarily by higher feedgrain prices and increased energy expenses amid tight supply chains. Hog producers with efficient feed conversion and modern facilities remain better positioned, while smaller or less efficient operations face margin compression. A key uncertainty is potential shifts in export demand from top importers like China, where import quotas and disease outbreaks could disrupt market balances and pressure prices.
  • USDA August 2026 Pork Industry Cost Analysis
  • CME Group Lean Hog Futures Monthly Cost Curve Report – July 2026
  • Rabobank Livestock Outlook August 2026: Feed Cost Pressures Mount
  • China Hog Import Quotas and Impact on Global Cost Curves - USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, July 2026
  • Energy Price Trajectory and Effects on Hog Production Margins - EIA, August 2026

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    XAGUSD CurncySilver SpotUSD/t oz.-17.06-1.08-20.96101.1826.38
    SI1 ComdtySilver (Comex)USD/t oz.-16.31-1.18-19.0999.4526.39
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