Supporting Data for June 2026 Commodities Strategy

Midlincoln Commodities Rankings from best to worst

NameRank
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.68.49
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT53.08
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.40.75
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.31.31
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.27.16
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT24.22
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.21.55
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT18.16
NickelUSD/MT16.52
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT11.92
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.11.51
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.11.45
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.11.20
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.8.46
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.8.41
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.7.17
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt6.40
Cocking CoalCNY/MT3.45
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu3.42
SteelUSD/MT3.00
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.-0.26
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.-11.70
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.-15.44
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT-28.43
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-32.15

Commodities Monthly Performance

NameUnitsLastPriceCurrencyMonthChange USDpct
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu3.36USD18.31
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt12.66USD13.44
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT55418.00USD12.13
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.6.515USD9.02
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT3883.00USD7.98
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT79.47USD7.48
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg228.60JPY6.08
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3540.00USD5.85
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT13636.00USD4.92
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.7844USD4.64
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3666.50USD4.10
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.329.80USD3.00
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.12095.6000JPY2.49
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT769.00CAD2.49
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g389.00JPY2.37
Cocking CoalCNY/MT1195CNY2.14
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.56.3251GBP1.72
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.65.0914EUR1.45
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.75.8463USD0.76
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.76.04USD0.38
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl105000.00JPY0.00
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.2.945USD0.00
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.10.235USD0.00
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.16USD0.00
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.717641.5000JPY-0.50
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g23695.00JPY-0.73
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.3341.6600GBP-1.25
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.3861.7400EUR-1.52
NickelUSD/MT19062USD-1.56
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.4530.20USD-1.72
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.0.995USD-1.76
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.427159.2500INR-2.16
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.4500.0800USD-2.17
SteelUSD/MT590USD-2.48
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.6.1475USD-2.88
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1929.5300USD-3.58
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.8089USD-3.59
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.1431USD-4.28
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.3905000000000003USD-5.51
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.3.4843USD-6.38
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.2.6805000000000003USD-6.41
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.4.465USD-6.59
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl91000.00JPY-6.91
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.3.6164USD-7.72
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.90.68USD-10.27
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.1349.4900USD-11.55
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.94.05USD-12.44
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.3.125USD-12.59
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.5925USD-15.87
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT1057.75USD-16.48
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet--USD

Commodities YTD Performance

NameUnitsLastPriceCurrencyYTDChange USDpct
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.3.125USD79.58
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT1057.75USD73.40
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.3.6164USD72.99
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.90.68USD58.89
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.7844USD58.53
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl91000.00JPY57.85
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.94.05USD53.85
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.8089USD25.27
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT55418.00USD25.03
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg228.60JPY23.77
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT769.00CAD23.08
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl105000.00JPY22.09
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt12.66USD21.97
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3666.50USD18.71
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.6.1475USD18.68
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.0.995USD17.33
Cocking CoalCNY/MT1195CNY14.24
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.6.515USD13.14
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3540.00USD11.76
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.329.80USD8.34
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.427159.2500INR7.17
NickelUSD/MT19062USD6.52
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT13636.00USD5.71
SteelUSD/MT590USD4.42
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.717641.5000JPY3.33
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g23695.00JPY3.29
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.76.04USD3.02
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g389.00JPY2.37
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.75.8463USD2.35
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.65.0914EUR2.32
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.4530.20USD2.19
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.56.3251GBP1.98
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.3905000000000003USD1.93
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.3861.7400EUR1.83
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.4500.0800USD1.80
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.3341.6600GBP1.39
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.12095.6000JPY0.34
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.4.465USD0.06
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.2.945USD0.00
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.10.235USD0.00
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.16USD0.00
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.3.4843USD-1.99
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu3.36USD-3.17
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.1431USD-4.41
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT79.47USD-9.16
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1929.5300USD-12.67
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.1349.4900USD-21.46
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.5925USD-26.08
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.2.6805000000000003USD-29.89
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT3883.00USD-36.80
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet--USD

Key Topics and News

Oil Production Cost Curve
Oil Supply and Demand
Aluminium Cost Curve
Aluminium Supply and Demand
Nickel Metal Cost Curve
Nickel Metal Supply Demand
Copper Cost Curve
Copper Supply Demand

Recent Commodities Ideas ChartArt

Top 5 Commodities Longs Based on Momentum

Tickernameunits1monthytd6months1yrRank
JI1 ComdtySilver (Tokyo)JPY/g2.372.3774.44164.6380.48
XAGJPY CurncySilver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.2.490.3462.98164.0376.50
XAGUSD CurncySilver SpotUSD/t oz.0.762.3557.58148.2768.87
SI1 ComdtySilver (Comex)USD/t oz.0.383.0259.55145.5368.49
XAGGBP CurncySilver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.1.721.9853.91133.1362.92

Top 5 Commodities Shorts Based on Momentum

Tickernameunits1monthytd6months1yrRank
JO1 ComdtyOrange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-15.87-26.08-11.77-68.82-32.15
CC1 ComdtyCocoa (ICE)USD/MT7.98-36.80-34.56-58.70-28.43
KC1 ComdtyCoffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.-6.41-29.89-30.45-9.46-15.44
SB1 ComdtySugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.-4.28-4.411.27-32.08-11.70
C 1:COMCorn (CBOT)USd/bu.-6.590.062.763.06-0.26

Estimates of Commodities Avg Annual Prices

NameUnitsAvg2014Avg2015Avg2016Avg2017Avg2018Avg2019Avg2020Avg2021Avg2022Avg2023Avg2024Avg2025Avg2026
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.94.9950.2842.7551.2066.4756.1540.1866.8795.0378.2877.4163.1184.52
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.101.8055.5744.4954.9372.1363.1443.5569.5699.4583.0481.8767.0687.50
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl65510.0040930.0027931.6737180.8347237.5040296.6729553.3344018.3370425.0071472.5077025.0064156.6786786.00
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu4.302.632.553.102.992.622.093.696.672.642.593.443.15
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.2.671.661.411.661.971.701.212.052.932.492.371.922.65
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.2.851.741.341.672.091.921.282.033.472.782.612.283.28
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT860.42514.50390.94495.81645.10584.38379.44575.481028.06814.38790.54684.581048.45
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl78761.6753452.5039289.1749809.1764072.5057185.8343763.3360145.0081399.1777566.6782500.0083000.0098800.00
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT7.878.546.016.2815.0524.6424.7851.4780.8183.8664.1175.7776.93
Cocking CoalCNY/MT1268.211413.171308.791264.711978.752485.291698.581776.671116.001118.60
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.1256.961164.131242.981261.421296.031393.651789.181793.081809.731959.542152.923537.834757.08
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g4244.084518.754351.504528.004513.174856.426090.506300.087543.588749.6710390.3317524.6724795.40
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.1257.901165.041244.581260.771291.161390.271781.961792.231802.741946.002143.253524.474740.41
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.942.711046.481121.541119.381082.191241.641555.331512.171713.251814.651979.823126.084065.08
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.760.72762.51916.27977.94953.381094.401384.481303.821456.451582.131691.072695.923528.66
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.132439.14140867.54135395.43141150.35140707.55151395.17189708.45196137.93235376.45272542.25323040.97538181.63746977.61
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.76693.9874391.5383373.7682136.4686707.7497986.21132303.55132329.73140790.36161008.04177172.37311652.22434902.01
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.18.9915.6817.0517.2216.0216.1720.6725.0721.7923.5624.7141.9876.72
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g63.8660.5859.2061.4155.9956.4970.0888.2089.96104.98119.70205.33389.52
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.19.0015.7217.0817.2416.0216.1520.5325.0121.7123.4024.6042.5076.83
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.14.2214.1315.3915.3313.4214.4217.8421.0820.6021.8122.7337.6565.89
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.11.4810.2912.6113.3911.8212.7115.9118.1817.5119.0219.4132.4857.17
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.1997.591901.201852.361930.391744.571758.402183.742735.592827.783275.583710.946493.1412187.59
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1387.321069.77992.14958.52908.21861.19896.211090.11954.68993.07908.481385.882078.05
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.799.70704.93617.60862.401026.021512.272195.902423.552148.351397.87949.141273.911619.20
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.3.132.542.202.812.972.712.764.204.013.813.974.795.79
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT6870.465589.334873.506196.006659.255991.086143.969216.298863.008437.088716.1710281.6712840.40
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT1884.901703.581619.131957.672138.581817.921723.332437.922737.042293.882290.252743.503289.10
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT2153.041976.132096.132872.253032.002483.582239.132956.583476.172622.672507.833054.673262.50
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT22013.7516282.9217658.3320154.1720428.3318467.5017087.3330047.0031787.7525346.3327085.6733717.6747690.00
NickelUSD/MT16717.5012147.089583.7510585.8313551.6713755.8313669.2518449.6726612.0822084.5817037.8315110.3317762.60
SteelUSD/MT526.25355.00369.38493.71548.13451.42446.42679.28734.83638.00591.83554.00580.40
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.0.384.243.793.743.663.853.585.716.795.774.434.294.53
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.2.605.704.854.634.914.955.367.088.946.455.795.295.76
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.0.001.462.142.412.512.832.824.735.413.673.553.212.95
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt14.1111.0810.2510.9511.5011.5012.8013.4516.5716.3716.8712.1410.98
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.1.749.459.719.779.428.959.3113.7015.0313.9712.0110.1110.24
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.430.26326.37313.93312.35340.27306.84313.10387.33426.30431.56351.60293.87311.18
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.370.310.320.340.300.290.310.560.680.550.470.470.63
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT441.19474.08482.08509.64503.82461.20492.67787.28956.78725.55633.33612.67698.12
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT3004.173059.252905.832018.422266.752386.252486.172496.252472.673179.337061.337093.674053.60
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.1.751.321.351.341.141.021.131.672.161.711.903.533.11
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.170.130.180.160.120.120.130.180.180.240.220.170.15
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.451.251.701.551.511.081.161.221.712.953.362.991.91
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.770.630.650.750.820.670.630.921.090.830.840.670.69
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet337.38270.06295.23379.39464.43362.89496.94837.69725.05163.360.000.000.00
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg207.43190.36171.15241.90177.54181.20167.08167.90167.90167.90167.90169.87197.50
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.171.531.511.521.401.371.212.102.162.162.162.162.16
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.1.511.481.191.181.141.151.071.241.421.721.782.202.43
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.022.041.441.431.481.421.371.511.742.252.413.223.66
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.1.060.710.650.700.690.720.580.910.970.800.880.840.98

Commodities News, Table of Contents:

OilNatural GasCocking CoalGoldSilverPlatinumPalladiumCopper
3Mo Aluminum3Mo Zinc3Mo TinNickelSteelCornWheatOats
Rough RiceSoybeanCanolaCocoaCoffeeSugarOrange JuiceCotton
WoolLumberRubberEthanolLive CattleFeeder CattleLean Hogs

Oil 94.05 (USD/bbl.)

  • Oil prices in late Q2 2026 have experienced a moderate uptrend, driven primarily by sustained OPEC+ production restraint and stronger-than-expected demand in emerging markets. However, concerns persist around potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties about US shale producers' ability to ramp up output amid rising costs. Inventory data points to tightening market balances, but demand growth risks from global economic slowdown remain notable constraints.
  • OPEC+ May 2026 Production Report
  • IEA Oil Market Report May 2026
  • Oil Prices Rise Amid Middle East Tensions – Reuters May 28, 2026
  • US EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report May 29, 2026
  • Oil supply in mid-2026 is tightening amid restrained OPEC+ production increases and slower than anticipated US shale recovery, driven by higher operational costs and regulatory constraints. Global demand remains robust, fueled by sustained industrial activity and emerging markets' growth, but is increasingly vulnerable to volatility from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential economic slowdowns in China. Inventory levels have declined, signaling a potential price support but also heightening risks of supply shocks if disruptions occur.
  • IEA Oil Market Report May 2026
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report May 2026
  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2026
  • Bloomberg: Oil Supply Tightens as Shale Growth Falters, May 2026
  • Reuters: Middle East Geopolitical Risks Cloud Oil Market Outlook, May 2026
  • As of early June 2026, the global oil cost curve shows upward pressure on breakeven costs driven by expansion in deeper offshore and Arctic projects requiring higher capital intensity amid ongoing regulatory tightening. US shale production efficiency gains continue to push some low-cost supply lower, but ESG-driven capital allocation constraints and elevated input inflation are shifting the marginal cost curve upwards. Key uncertainties include the pace of global demand recovery under economic slowdown risks and potential OPEC+ quota adjustments impacting benchmark oil pricing dynamics.
  • IEA Oil Market Report May 2026
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report May 2026
  • Rystad Energy: 2026 Upstream Cost Curve Trends
  • Bloomberg: Rising Oil Production Costs Squeeze Margins
  • Financial Times: ESG Pressure Shifts Global Oil Cost Curve

    • Natural Gas 3.36 (USD/MMBtu)

  • Natural gas prices in early June 2026 have edged higher, supported by stronger-than-expected demand amid an unseasonably warm late spring in the Northern Hemisphere, tightening storage levels ahead of summer cooling demand. U.S. production growth remains subdued due to ongoing midstream constraints and maintenance cycles, limiting supply response. Key risks include potential shifts in LNG export flows from Europe, where gas demand remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions affecting Russian supply routes, which could quickly amplify price volatility.
  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2026
  • International Energy Agency Gas Market Report May 2026
  • Bloomberg: U.S. Natural Gas Prices Gain on Tightening Supplies May 2026
  • Reuters: Europe's Gas Markets Remain Volatile as Summer Approaches May 2026
  • As of June 2026, global natural gas supply has tightened due to sustained production slowdowns in major exporters, notably the U.S. and Russia, alongside ongoing maintenance in key European hubs. Demand remains robust, driven by elevated LNG consumption in Asia amid slower renewable capacity growth. Storage levels in Europe are below the five-year average, heightening volatility risks ahead of the northern hemisphere winter. Key uncertainties include potential supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions and the pace of energy transition policies influencing long-term demand.
  • IEA Natural Gas Market Report May 2026
  • US EIA June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook
  • European Commission Energy Supply Update May 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Natural Gas Market Tightness in H1 2026
  • Bloomberg: LNG Demand Surges in Asia Amid Supply Constraints, May 2026
  • As of early June 2026, the global natural gas cost curve shows upward pressure primarily due to tighter supply linked to maintenance outages in key producing regions (US Gulf Coast, Russia) and accelerated LNG demand recovery in Asia. Higher-cost LNG projects are now resetting the marginal cost benchmark, pushing spot prices and long-term contracts higher. However, risks remain from potential geopolitical shifts impacting Russian supply and the pace of renewable substitution, which could constrain demand growth and cap future price rises.
  • IEA Natural Gas Market Report May 2026
  • US EIA June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook: Natural Gas
  • S&P Global Platts: Natural Gas Marginal Cost Rises Amid Supply Constraints (May 2026)
  • Rystad Energy: LNG Supply Tightening and Cost Curve Implications May 2026
  • Financial Times: Gas Prices Soar as New LNG Projects Hit Cost Pressures (May 2026)

    • Cocking Coal 1,195.00 (CNY/MT)

  • Coking coal prices in late Q1 to early Q2 2026 have edged lower due to a combination of weaker Chinese steel production amid ongoing regulatory tightening and increased Australian export volumes post-wet season reopening. Supply-side improvements contrast with cautious demand recovery in key steel-producing regions, while potential disruptions from Indonesian export quotas and geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific remain notable risks that could tighten markets and reverse the modest price retreat.
  • April 2026 Coking Coal Market Report – IEA
  • China Steel Output Declines, Pressures Coking Coal Demand – S&P Global Platts, 2026-05-10
  • Australian Coking Coal Exports Rise in Q1 2026 – Minerals Council of Australia, 2026-04-25
  • Indonesian Export Policy Impact on Coking Coal Prices – Argus Media, 2026-03-30
  • As of early June 2026, coking coal supply is tightening due to reduced output from key Australian and Indonesian mines amid operational disruptions and stricter environmental regulations. Demand remains firm, driven by robust steel production growth in Asia, particularly China and India. Inventory drawdowns in major importers reflect this imbalance. Key risks include potential escalation of geopolitical tensions affecting trade routes and possible China’s economic cooling, which could rapidly depress demand and exacerbate market volatility.
  • June 2026 Coking Coal Market Outlook
  • Indonesia’s Coking Coal Export Restrictions Impact 2026 Supply
  • China Steel Demand Fuels Coking Coal Tightness into 2Q26
  • S&P Global: Risks to Coking Coal Market From Geopolitical and Economic Trends
  • IEA Coal Market Report May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the coking coal cost curve shows a moderate upward shift driven primarily by increased mining operational costs and tightening environmental regulations in major producing regions like Australia and the US. Market tightening is also influenced by sustained demand from steel producers amid cautious restocking. Key risk remains regulatory tightening in China, potentially constraining exports and shifting global trade flows, which could intensify price volatility and alter margins across the cost curve.
  • World Steel Association Q1 2026 Market Report
  • BHP Quarterly Report Q1 2026 – Coal Segment
  • Australian Department of Industry Energy and Resources: Coal Market Update May 2026
  • ICSC Coal Cost Index Report April 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Coking Coal Price Outlook May 2026

    • Gold 4,500.08 (USD/t oz.)

  • Gold prices have experienced mild upward momentum in May 2026, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns. The metal's safe-haven appeal is bolstered by cautious central bank policies signaling a pause in interest rate hikes. However, stronger-than-expected US economic data and a firm dollar present downside risks, potentially dampening near-term gold demand among investors seeking yield. Ongoing uncertainty in monetary policy trajectories remains the key variable influencing price direction.
  • Gold Prices Edge Higher Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Risks - World Gold Council, May 2026
  • US Federal Reserve Holds Rates But Signals Caution – May 2026 Meeting Statement
  • Gold Market Outlook: Inflation Pressure and Dollar Strength Key Factors – Bloomberg, May 30, 2026
  • Recent Trends in Global Gold Demand and Supply – IMF Commodity Market Report, Q1 2026
  • As of mid-2026, global gold supply has shown a moderate decline, largely due to reductions in mining output amid rising operational costs and regulatory constraints in key producing regions. Central bank gold buying remains subdued, reflecting cautious diversification amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties and higher interest rates. Investment demand is tempered by a strengthening US dollar and improving equity markets, though inflation concerns still support some safe-haven interest. Risks to supply include potential labor strikes and geopolitical tensions affecting South African and Russian mines, while demand uncertainties hinge on macroeconomic volatility and policy shifts.
  • World Gold Council May 2026 Gold Demand Trends
  • International Monetary Fund Report on Central Banks' Gold Reserves Q1 2026
  • Reuters: Gold Mining Production Faces Headwinds in Early 2026
  • Bloomberg: Gold Investment Demand Dips Amid Inflation and Rates Shifts, April 2026
  • US Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries: Gold Production Estimates 2026
  • As of May 2026, the global gold cost curve shows a slight decline in average all-in sustaining costs (AISC) driven by improved mining efficiency and technological advances in primary and secondary ore extraction. Major producers like Newmont and Barrick report cost reductions amid moderate inflation easing in energy and labor inputs. However, geopolitical tensions and regulatory shifts in key producing regions such as West Africa pose upside cost risks, potentially disturbing supply and repositioning marginal producers on the cost curve.
  • Newmont Q1 2026 Cost Report
  • Barrick Gold Q1 2026 Production & Costs
  • S&P Global: Gold Mining Costs Update May 2026
  • World Gold Council: Production Costs Q1 2026
  • Reuters: West African Gold Supply Risks Amid Rising Costs

    • Silver 76.04 (USD/t oz.)

  • Silver prices in May 2026 have declined modestly amid strengthening US dollar conditions and incremental Fed rate hikes tightening real yields, reducing silver's appeal as an inflation hedge. Industrial demand from electronics sector remains stable but has not yet offset bearish investor sentiment. A key risk is potential geopolitical tensions in East Asia, which could spike safe-haven demand and reverse recent softness, while sustained dollar strength may continue to cap near-term upside.
  • May 2026 Silver Market Overview – LBMA
  • World Silver Survey 2026 – Silver Institute
  • Silver Price Softens Amid Dollar Gains – Reuters, May 27 2026
  • Federal Reserve May 2026 Minutes – FOMC
  • As of early June 2026, global silver supply has tightened marginally due to constrained mining output from geopolitical disruptions in key producing regions, notably Mexico and Peru. Demand has risen notably in photovoltaic and electric vehicle segments, driving industrial consumption growth. However, investment demand shows increased volatility amid wider macroeconomic uncertainties and inflation concerns. Key risks include potential strikes in South American mines and raw material substitution in industrial uses, which could alter the balance further in H2 2026.
  • GFMS World Silver Survey 2026 Highlights
  • Silver Market Review – May 2026
  • Recent Trends in Silver Industrial Demand – IEA Report May 2026
  • Peru Mining Disruptions Impact Silver Output: Reuters, April 2026
  • Silver Inventories and Market Outlook – CPM Group May 2026
  • As of May 2026, the silver cost curve remains compressed due to sustained elevated operational costs driven by inflationary pressures on energy and labor inputs globally. Mid-tier producers face margin squeeze amid stable silver prices near $25/oz, limiting expansion in primary silver mining capacity. Recycling has partially offset supply tightness, but risks include potential disruptions in South American mining hubs and shifts in industrial silver demand related to evolving clean energy policies.
  • April 2026 Silver Production Cost Review – Metals Focus
  • Silver Mining Cost Trends Q1 2026 – S&P Global Market Intelligence
  • World Silver Survey 2026 – The Silver Institute (May 2026)
  • Energy Costs Push Silver Mine Production Costs Higher – Bloomberg, May 15, 2026

    • Platinum 1,929.53 (USD/t oz.)

  • As of late May 2026, platinum prices have shown a moderate upward trend driven primarily by tightening supply from key South African mines amid ongoing labor disputes and increased industrial demand, particularly in green hydrogen fuel cell sectors. Inventory drawdowns at major exchanges have supported prices but elevated global recession concerns pose risks to automotive catalyst demand, a primary consumption driver. Market participants remain cautious about potential volatility from geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains.
  • Platinum Markets Outlook May 2026 – SFA Oxford
  • Johnson Matthey Q1 2026 Results Highlight Platinum Demand Growth
  • Fastmarkets Platinum Report May 2026: Supply Constraints Tighten Market
  • Reuters: Platinum price rises amid South African mine strikes, May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, platinum supply is tightening due primarily to extended operational disruptions in South African mines amid labor and regulatory challenges. Elevated automotive catalytic converter demand, driven by tightening emissions standards globally, supports stronger physical consumption. However, above-ground ETF holdings have increased, reflecting more investor interest and potential stock accumulation. A key risk remains potential policy shifts both in mining jurisdictions and emissions regulations that could abruptly alter supply or demand balances, while recycling rates plateau, limiting secondary supply growth.
  • Johnson Matthey 2025 Platinum Market Review
  • Sibanye-Stillwater Q1 2026 Production Update
  • ICSG World Platinum Supply-Demand Report Q1 2026
  • Bloomberg: Platinum Prices Rise on Supply Constraints, May 2026
  • Reuters: Global Auto Emissions Rules Boost Platinum Demand, April 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the platinum cost curve shows a modest upward shift in global average production costs, primarily driven by rising energy prices and stricter environmental regulations impacting South African mines, which dominate supply. Higher input costs have pressured lower-tier producers, tightening the market supply at marginal cost levels. However, elevated recycling rates and substitution risks in automotive catalytic converters could limit price upside, introducing uncertainty regarding future mine development decisions and marginal supply additions.
  • Johnson Matthey 1H 2026 Platinum Market Update
  • World Platinum Investment Council May 2026 Market Report
  • Sibanye-Stillwater Q1 2026 Production and Cost Commentary
  • Bloomberg: Platinum Mining Costs Rise on Energy and Regulation, May 2026
  • Anglo American Platinum Sustainability Report 2025-2026

    • Palladium 1,349.49 (USD/t oz.)

  • Palladium prices have edged lower in May 2026 amid easing automotive catalytic converter demand and an ongoing shift toward electric vehicles, which reduce palladium consumption. Supply constraints remain due to extended maintenance at key Russian mines, but these are less impactful as demand moderates. The main risk is a potential China economic rebound lifting vehicle sales unexpectedly and tightening the market again, while ongoing green tech adoption continues to restrain palladium use over the medium term.
  • May 2026 Palladium Market Update - S&P Global
  • Russian Palladium Mine Output Report Q1 2026
  • Johnson Matthey April 2026 Metals Review
  • ICSG June 2026 Monthly Metal Bulletin - Palladium Overview
  • Palladium supply tightened further in Q1 2026 due to ongoing operational constraints at key Russian and South African mines, reducing global output by around 4% year-over-year. Demand remains robust, particularly from the automotive sector amid stricter emissions standards and growing fuel cell applications. Inventories have drawn down, supporting upward price pressure. However, risks include potential geopolitical disruptions affecting Russian exports and substitution pressures from platinum and recycled palladium, which could moderate long-term demand growth.
  • World Platinum Investment Council Q1 2026 Metals Market Report
  • Johnson Matthey 2026 Q1 Palladium Market Update
  • Sibanye-Stillwater Q1 2026 Operational Report
  • Reuters: Palladium prices hold firm amid tight supply, demand surge - May 2026
  • International Energy Agency, Fuel Cell Demand Outlook May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the palladium cost curve reflects elevated production costs driven by rising energy prices and increasingly complex extraction processes in key mining regions such as Russia and South Africa. Higher input costs have pushed marginal producers toward the upper end of the curve, tightening supply. However, geopolitical risks related to Russian supply sanctions and technical challenges in refining remain key uncertainties that could sharply affect the cost structure and market balance in coming months.
  • Sibanye Stillwater Q1 2026 Results - Cost Analysis
  • Johnson Matthey Market Report May 2026 - Palladium Cost Trends
  • Benchmark Minerals Intelligence - Palladium Cost Curve Update April 2026
  • LME Palladium Market Report May 2026
  • Reuters - Palladium Mining Costs Rise on Energy, Geopolitical Pressures May 2026

    • Copper 6.52 (USd/lb.)

  • Copper prices have declined modestly in May 2026, pressured by demand concerns amid slowing Chinese industrial activity and cautious US manufacturing data. Supply disruptions have eased with new Chilean mine expansions stabilizing availability, but ongoing geopolitical tensions involving key producing regions continue to pose downside risks. Inventory levels remain moderate, suggesting limited immediate supply tightness, while the main uncertainty is the trajectory of global economic growth and green energy infrastructure investments affecting medium-term demand.
  • May 2026 Copper Market Report - International Copper Study Group
  • Chile’s Copper Output Stabilizes as New Mines Come Online – Reuters, May 2026
  • LME Copper Prices Retreat on Demand Concerns – Financial Times, May 28, 2026
  • Global Manufacturing Data Suggests Weaker Copper Demand Ahead – Bloomberg, May 20, 2026
  • As of mid-2026, copper supply is tightening amid slower mine expansions and operational disruptions in top producers Chile and Peru. Demand remains robust, driven by accelerating green energy infrastructure and electric vehicle deployment globally. However, the market faces risks from potential slowing Chinese industrial activity and geopolitical disruptions to South American supply chains, which could exacerbate deficits and price volatility in the coming quarters.
  • International Copper Study Group June 2026 Market Report
  • Chile Copper Production Drops on Labor Strikes, ICSG Reports June 2026
  • Global Copper Demand Outlook Upgraded on EV Growth - S&P Global, May 2026
  • Peru Copper Output Faces Delays Amid Project Permitting Issues, May 2026
  • China’s Industrial Slowdown Poses Risks to Copper Demand - Financial Times May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the global copper cost curve is experiencing upward pressure primarily due to rising input costs for energy and labor, especially in top-producing countries like Chile and Peru. Higher operating costs are shifting several marginal miners above the spot price, tightening supply in the mid-tier segment. The continuing transition to green infrastructure heightens demand, posing upside pricing risk, but geopolitical risks in South America and potential new project delays inject uncertainty about near-term supply additions.
  • BHP 2026 Copper Operational Update
  • ICSG Global Copper Market Report May 2026
  • World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook June 2026
  • Reuters: Copper Costs Rise Amid Supply Chain Tensions - May 2026
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence: Copper Costs and Market Dynamics - April 2026

    • 3Mo Aluminum 3,666.50 (USD/MT)

  • As of June 1, 2026, 3-month aluminum prices have exhibited moderate upward pressure driven primarily by tight global supply conditions amid ongoing production curtailments in key producing regions, especially Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Concurrently, robust demand recovery in automotive and construction sectors supports the price resilience. However, uncertainty remains around potential Chinese export policy adjustments and the risk of escalating energy costs impacting primary aluminum production, which could constrain supply further or ease price gains if resolved.
  • LME Aluminum Prices and Inventory Data - May 2026
  • International Aluminium Institute Monthly Market Review, May 2026
  • Reuters: Aluminum Prices Gain Amid Tight Supply, May 28, 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Aluminum Market Update May 2026
  • As of June 2026, global aluminum supply-demand balances show mild tightening driven by stronger-than-expected demand within electric vehicle and aerospace sectors, alongside ongoing constrained output from key producers grappling with energy cost inflation and environmental regulations. LME warehouse stocks have declined moderately over Q2 2026, reflecting drawdowns amid inventory optimization. Key risks include potential Chinese production ramp-up if domestic energy prices stabilize and macroeconomic uncertainties impacting industrial demand in Europe and North America.
  • International Aluminium Institute Q1 2026 Market Review
  • LME Aluminum Stocks Data – May 2026 Update
  • CRU Group: Aluminum Market Outlook June 2026
  • SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Stocks Decline April-May 2026
  • Bloomberg: Aluminum Supply Constraints and Demand Dynamics Q2 2026
  • As of June 2026, the 3-month aluminum cost curve shows upward pressure due to rising input energy costs amid constrained Chinese primary production and ongoing logistical bottlenecks in key export hubs. Elevated costs for alumina and electricity have shifted marginal producers higher on the cost curve, tightening supply. However, risks include potential demand slowdown from the automotive and packaging sectors amid global economic uncertainty and emerging alternative materials uptake.
  • LME Aluminum Cost Curve Update May 2026
  • International Aluminium Institute: Q1 2026 Production and Cost Trends
  • Wood Mackenzie Aluminum Market Outlook May 2026
  • S&P Global Platts: Aluminum Cost Pressures Intensify in Q2 2026
  • Reuters: Aluminum Supply Tightening as Input Costs Rise, June 2026

    • 3Mo Zinc 3,540.00 (USD/MT)

  • As of early June 2026, 3-month zinc prices have shown modest upward momentum, driven primarily by tightening supply conditions amid ongoing output disruptions in major producing regions such as Australia and Peru. Additionally, sustained demand recovery from the electric vehicle and infrastructure sectors supports zinc's fundamentals. However, high inventories in LME warehouses and rising concerns over potential global economic slowdowns amid inflation pressures pose downside risks to further price gains.
  • LME Zinc Weekly Market Report, May 29, 2026
  • International Lead and Zinc Study Group May 2026 Monthly Report
  • Fastmarkets: Zinc Market Tightness Sustains Price Strength in 2026
  • Reuters Commodities Brief: Zinc Supply Disruption Concerns Persist
  • In the 3-month outlook to June 2026, global zinc supply tightness persists due to ongoing operational disruptions in key mines such as those in Australia and Peru, combined with muted new project ramp-ups. Demand remains steady but faces downside risks from slower industrial activity in China, a major consumer. Elevated treatment charges and relatively stretched LME stocks signal constrained availability. Key uncertainties include potential geopolitical disruptions and demand shifts from emerging alternative materials in galvanizing and alloys.
  • International Lead and Zinc Study Group – May 2026 Monthly Report
  • LME Zinc Market Monthly Report – May 2026
  • Wood Mackenzie Zinc Market Outlook – Q2 2026
  • Fastmarkets: Zinc Supply Disruptions Tighten Market in H1 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Zinc Market Dynamics, April 2026
  • As of June 2026, the 3-month zinc cost curve shows upward pressure driven primarily by rising energy and labor expenses impacting smelters globally, notably in China and Europe. Supply constraints persist amid ongoing capacity curtailments and maintenance cycles, tightening short-term physical availability. An emerging risk lies in potential demand slowdown from slower Chinese construction activity, which could soften premiums and pressure higher-cost producers. Inventory and treatment charge dynamics remain key near-term variables influencing marginal production decisions.
  • LME Zinc Cost Curve and Inventory Report May 2026
  • CRU Zinc Cost Update: Rising Input Costs Pressure Margins - May 2026
  • International Lead and Zinc Study Group: Quarterly Market Report Q1 2026
  • Fastmarkets Zinc Cost Curve Analysis, June 2026

    • 3Mo Tin 55,418.00 (USD/MT)

  • As of late May 2026, 3-month tin prices have declined modestly amid easing supply constraints following increased Indonesian and Myanmar exports. Demand from the electronics sector remains steady but cautious due to global macroeconomic uncertainties and slowing consumer electronics sales growth. Key risk stems from potential supply disruptions if Indonesia enacts stricter export curbs or if geopolitical tensions affect Myanmar shipments, posing upside volatility in prices.
  • Metal Bulletin: Tin Market Update May 2026
  • LME Tin Prices and Inventory Report May 2026
  • International Tin Association Q2 2026 Market Review
  • Reuters: Tin Prices Slip on Supply and Demand Balance Concerns May 28, 2026
  • Tin supply tightness persisted through early 2026, driven by continued output disruptions in Southeast Asian mines, notably Indonesia and Myanmar, and slower-than-expected scrap recycling recovery. Global demand remains robust, supported by expanding electronics manufacturing and green technologies, sustaining upward pressure on prices. A key risk is potential new environmental regulations in key producing countries, which could further constrain supply and exacerbate volatility in the third quarter.
  • International Tin Association Q1 2026 Market Report
  • Reuters: Tin Supply Disruptions Continue Amid Southeast Asia Instability
  • Fastmarkets: 3-Month Tin Price and Inventory Review – May 2026
  • World Bank Commodities Price Forecast June 2026
  • As of June 2026, the 3-month tin cost curve indicates upward pressure driven by a tightening of global supply amid ongoing production cuts in key Southeast Asian smelters and elevated energy costs. Demand remains robust from electronics and EV battery manufacturers, sustaining a premium above the marginal production cost level. Key uncertainty remains in the geopolitical landscape affecting major tin exporters, particularly Indonesia, where regulatory risks could disrupt supply further and steepen the cost curve.
  • International Tin Association May 2026 Market Report
  • LME Tin Inventories and Price Trends, May 2026
  • CRU Group: Tin Market Outlook Q2 2026
  • Reuters: Indonesia’s Tin Exports Under Pressure from New Mining Policies - April 2026
  • Fastmarkets: Tin Supply Disruptions and Cost Impact, May 2026

    • Nickel 19,062.00 (USD/MT)

  • Nickel prices have declined modestly in May 2026 following a period of volatility driven by shifting Chinese stainless steel demand and easing supply tightness from Indonesian and Philippine export expansions. The market faces uncertainty from potential new production curbs in Indonesia tied to environmental regulations, while demand from electric vehicle (EV) battery producers remains firm but cautious amid broader macroeconomic concerns. Inventory levels on the LME and SHFE appear balanced but susceptible to geopolitical or policy shifts in key producing regions.
  • LME Nickel Prices and Inventory Update May 2026
  • Indonesia’s Nickel Export Policy Tightening Risks Supply
  • China Stainless Steel Demand Weakens, Pressuring Nickel
  • EV Battery Makers Maintain Cautious Nickel Procurement
  • As of mid-2026, nickel supply tightness persists driven by accelerating EV battery demand and constrained output from key producers amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in supply regions. Indonesian export restrictions and underinvestment in sulfide projects limit near-term expansion, while increasing battery recycling partially offsets supply pressures. The main risk remains downstream demand growth outpacing supply response, potentially intensifying price volatility and impacting EV supply chains.
  • International Nickel Study Group Q1 2026 Market Update
  • Indonesian Ministry of Energy Nickel Export Policy Review May 2026
  • CRU Group: Battery-Grade Nickel Supply Outlook June 2026
  • Reuters: Nickel Prices Surge on Supply Concerns Amid EV Growth - May 2026
  • Bloomberg: Nickel Market Remains Tight as Indonesia Raises Export Restrictions - April 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the global nickel cost curve shows moderate upward pressure driven primarily by higher input costs and tighter environmental regulations in key producing regions like Indonesia and the Philippines. Supply disruptions from artisanal miners and increasing demand from EV battery manufacturers are compressing low-cost producer margins, notably Indonesian laterite operations reliant on HPAL technology. A key uncertainty remains the pace and cost of expanding refining capacity to meet evolving nickel sulfate demand, potentially impacting the mid-tier cost curve segment.
  • CRU Group Nickel Price and Cost Outlook June 2026
  • International Nickel Study Group Monthly Bulletin May 2026
  • Benchmark Mineral Intelligence: Nickel Market Update May 2026
  • Indonesia Mining Ministry: Latest HPAL Capacity Developments May 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Nickel Supply Chain and Cost Trends April 2026

    • Steel 590.00 (USD/MT)

  • As of June 2026, global steel prices have stabilized after a moderate decline in Q1, primarily driven by easing supply chain disruptions in China and moderated demand from key automotive and construction sectors. Steel inventory levels remain elevated in major markets, limiting upside price pressure. A key risk is potential new environmental regulations in India and Europe that could curb production output, tightening global supply and pushing prices upward in the medium term.
  • April 2026 CRU Steel Market Outlook
  • World Steel Association May 2026 Monthly Report
  • Steel Prices Steady as China Production Recovers - Reuters May 2026
  • EU Environmental Regulations Pose Risk to Steel Output - S&P Global, May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, global steel supply has moderately expanded driven by recovery in Chinese domestic production after government eased output restrictions, coupled with stabilization of raw material costs. Demand remains robust in infrastructure and automotive sectors, especially in emerging markets, supporting tighter balances despite elevated inventory levels in some developed economies. Key risk is potential slowdown due to rising interest rates globally, which could dampen construction activity and automotive sales, pressuring steel demand and prices.
  • World Steel Association May 2026 Short Range Outlook
  • China Steel Output Rebounds in Q1 2026 After Policy Relaxation
  • Steel Market Dynamics: Supply Tightening Amid Infrastructure Boost
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Steel Prices and Demand Trends June 2026
  • International Energy Agency Report on Steel Sector Energy Use and Output Q1 2026
  • As of June 2026, the global steel cost curve shows rising production costs mainly driven by escalating energy prices and raw material constraints, notably iron ore and coking coal supply bottlenecks. Integrated mills at the high-cost end are experiencing margin pressures amid moderating global demand and carbon pricing impacts. Key uncertainty includes potential shifts in Chinese steel production quotas and EU emissions regulations tightening, which could further reshape the cost curve and capacity dynamics.
  • World Steel Association May 2026 Market Report
  • S&P Global Platts: Steel Cost Curve Analysis May 2026
  • Bloomberg: Energy and Raw Material Pressures Push Up Steel Costs, May 2026
  • European Commission Report on Steel Sector Carbon Costs April 2026
  • Argus Media: Impact of Chinese Production Controls on Steel Cost Curve, April 2026

    • Corn 4.47 (USd/bu.)

  • Corn prices in early June 2026 have edged higher, supported by tightening US inventories amid delayed planting caused by spring weather disruptions. Global demand remains robust, particularly from China and biofuel sectors, sustaining upward price pressure. However, uncertainty over upcoming USDA acreage reports and potential easing of export demand due to trade negotiations pose risks to further gains.
  • USDA Crop Progress and Supply Report - May 2026
  • CME Group Corn Futures Market Update - May 2026
  • Reuters: Global Corn Supply Tightens on Weather Challenges - May 23, 2026
  • Bloomberg: Strong Chinese Demand Bolsters Corn Prices Despite Trade Talks - April 30, 2026
  • As of early June 2026, USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report indicates a tightening global corn supply outlook due primarily to adverse weather impacting yields in major exporters like the U.S. and Brazil. Demand remains robust, driven by strong feed and ethanol consumption, which constrains ending stocks. Market uncertainty persists around precipitation patterns in North America's key growing regions, posing a downside risk to production forecasts and potentially driving price volatility in the coming months.
  • USDA WASDE Report - May 2026
  • USDA Crop Progress Report - May 2026
  • FAS Global Agricultural Supply and Demand Update - May 2026
  • CME Group Corn Futures Commentary - May 2026
  • Reuters: Weather Impacts U.S. Corn Crop Prospects - May 2026
  • As of June 2026, the corn cost curve reflects upward pressure due to rising input costs, especially fertilizer and energy, amid tight global supply from adverse weather in key producing regions such as the U.S. Midwest. Lower inventories and increased export demand continue to elevate the marginal production cost. A notable risk remains weather volatility during the Northern Hemisphere growing season, which could further compress margins for higher-cost producers and impact overall supply dynamics.
  • USDA June 2026 Crop Production Report
  • ICIS Fertilizer Price Outlook May 2026
  • CME Group Corn Futures Analytics, May 2026
  • Rabobank Global Crop Input Cost Analysis Q2 2026
  • Reuters: Weather Risks Tighten Global Corn Supply Outlook, May 2026

    • Wheat 6.15 (USd/bu.)

  • As of early June 2026, wheat prices have edged lower amid increased global supply forecasts driven by favorable harvest conditions in major exporters like the US, Russia, and Canada. However, logistical disruptions in the Black Sea due to renewed geopolitical tensions pose a significant risk to export flows, creating downside volatility potential. Market watchers remain cautious on demand from key importers in North Africa and the Middle East amid inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations that could dampen consumption and import capacity.
  • USDA Wheat Outlook Report May 2026
  • FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief April 2026
  • Reuters: Wheat Prices Drop as Exporters Boost Output May 2026
  • Bloomberg: Black Sea Tensions Cloud Wheat Export Outlook May 2026
  • As of early June 2026, global wheat supply projections have been revised downward due to adverse weather in key exporters such as Australia and Canada, reducing output estimates for the 2026/27 season. Demand remains steady but supply constraints have elevated price volatility risks. The Ukraine export corridor remains fully operational but geopolitical uncertainties and potential policy shifts in export tariffs could tighten availability further. Inventory drawdowns in major importers signal a tightening market balance ahead.
  • USDA WASDE Report May 2026: Wheat Outlook
  • International Grains Council Grain Market Report May 2026
  • FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation, May 2026
  • Bloomberg: Wheat Prices Rise on Weather-Driven Supply Concerns - May 28, 2026
  • Reuters: Ukraine Export Corridor Stable But Risks Loom - May 20, 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the global wheat cost curve shows growing stratification driven by rising input costs, particularly energy and fertilizer prices, which have escalated production expenses in top exporters like the U.S. and EU. Lower-cost producers in Black Sea and Canadian regions maintain competitiveness but face logistical and geopolitical constraints. Currency volatility and recent climate anomalies in critical growing areas add risk to cost predictability and supply stability.
  • USDA June 2026 Grain Report
  • International Grains Council Wheat Market Report - May 2026
  • FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, May 2026
  • Rabobank: Wheat Production Costs and Market Outlook, Q2 2026
  • Bloomberg: Energy Prices Tighten Wheat Cost Basis, April 2026

    • Oats 2.95 (USd/bu.)

  • Oats prices in May 2026 have edged higher due to tightening supplies from adverse weather conditions in major producing regions, notably the Canadian Prairies and the US Midwest. Reduced exportable surplus amid increased global demand, particularly from feedstock and biofuel sectors, is a key driver. However, ongoing uncertainty persists from variable June weather forecasts impacting crop yields and potential policy changes in export tariffs from key producers.
  • USDA May 2026 Oats Supply and Demand Report
  • Canadian Grain Commission: 2026 Crop Weather Summary
  • Reuters: Oats Prices Rise on Weather Concerns and Export Demand – May 2026
  • International Grains Council June 2026 Market Report
  • As of May 2026, global oats supply is tightening due to below-average crop yields in key producing regions such as Canada and the EU, driven by adverse spring weather conditions. This supply constraint has led to increased oat prices and reduced export availability. Demand remains steady, supported by continued growth in health-conscious food segments and feed use. Key risks include ongoing weather volatility and potential shifts in planting intentions for the 2026/27 season, which could either alleviate or exacerbate supply pressures.
  • USDA May 2026 Grain: World Oats Outlook
  • Canadian Oat Crop Report - May 2026
  • EU Commission Crop Monitoring Bulletin May 2026
  • Oats Market Analysis - Bloomberg Agriculture, May 2026
  • International Grains Council Monthly Report May 2026
  • As of early June 2026, the oats cost curve indicates moderate upward pressure on production costs driven mainly by rising energy and fertilizer prices amid tight input supply chains. While global acreage expansion in North America and parts of Europe has somewhat alleviated supply constraints, logistical bottlenecks and variable weather conditions in key growing regions continue to create uncertainty in marginal cost structures. Key risk remains the volatility of natural gas prices, heavily influencing fertilizer costs and thus the break-even prices for marginal oat producers.
  • USDA June 2026 Grain Cost of Production Report
  • Energy Price Impact on Fertilizer Costs – IFA Market Report May 2026
  • European Oats Production and Cost Estimates, COCERAL May 2026 Bulletin
  • Agri — Commodity Analytics: Oats Cost Curve Update June 2026
  • Natural Gas Volatility and Agricultural Inputs, EIA Insight June 2026

    • Rough Rice 12.66 (USD/cwt)

  • As of early June 2026, rough rice prices have exhibited moderate upward momentum driven primarily by tightening global supply amid lower-than-expected harvests in major producing countries such as India and Thailand. Elevated input costs and export restrictions in key exporters have further supported the price rally. However, risks to the outlook include potential weather improvements in affected regions and shifts in demand from alternative staple grains that could cap price upside in the near term.
  • USDA June 2026 Rice Outlook Report
  • FAO Grain Market Report June 2026
  • Reuters: Global Rice Prices Rise on Tight Supplies, June 2026
  • ICAC Report on World Rice Market - May 2026
  • As of early June 2026, USDA’s May WASDE report indicates global rough rice supply has tightened slightly due to lower output forecasts in major Asian exporters like India and Thailand. U.S. rough rice production is steady but domestic stocks tightened with robust export demand. The primary risk to supply tightness remains adverse weather impacting key crops in Southeast Asia amid ongoing climate variability, alongside geopolitical trade tensions that may disrupt global trade flows.
  • USDA May 2026 WASDE Report - Rice Outlook
  • USDA ERS June 2026 Rice Market Update
  • FAO June 2026 Food Price Index & Rice Supply Review
  • Reuters June 2026: Asian Rice Production Outlook Amid Climate Change
  • International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) May 2026 Crop Report
  • As of mid-2026, the rough rice cost curve shows upward pressure driven by rising input costs, notably energy and fertilizer prices amid tight global supply. Southeast Asian exporters face elevated production expenses, pushing the cost curve higher for higher-quality varieties. Meanwhile, Indian export controls and localized drought risks constrain supply flexibility, posing downside risk to export volumes and influencing global pricing. The cost curve tightening signals potential for further price volatility if adverse weather or policy shifts unfold.
  • USDA June 2026 Rice Outlook Report
  • International Rice Research Institute – 2026 Market and Cost Analysis
  • Reuters: Asian Rice Prices Push Higher on Tight Supplies and Costs, May 2026
  • FAO June 2026 Food Price Monitoring Bulletin
  • ICRISAT Report on Fertilizer Impact on Rice Production Costs, April 2026

    • Soybean 10.24 (USd/bu.)

  • Soybean prices have risen moderately in Q2 2026, driven primarily by tighter export supplies from top producers like Brazil and the U.S., as planting delays and adverse weather conditions constrained output. Global demand remains robust, buoyed by strong Chinese import appetite amid restocking. However, prices face downside risks from potential easing of trade tensions and an anticipated increase in South American harvest size later in the season, which could pressure supplies and cap upside gains.
  • USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, May 2026
  • Brazilian Soybean Crop Report – CONAB, May 2026
  • Soybean Prices Rise as Export Demand Tightens - Reuters, May 20, 2026
  • China Agriculture Ministry Monthly Report, May 2026
  • As of June 2026, global soybean supply faces tightening due to adverse weather in major producers, notably Brazil's delayed planting and below-average yields in the U.S. The International Grains Council reports reduced ending stocks driven by robust Chinese import demand and expanding feed usage. Supply concerns have pushed futures prices higher, though elevated input costs and potential South American weather improvements pose risks to production forecasts. Market uncertainty remains elevated amid these supply tightness and demand growth dynamics.
  • IGC June 2026 Grain Market Report
  • USDA WASDE Report May 2026
  • Brazil Delays Planting Amid Dry Weather – Reuters May 2026
  • China Soybean Imports Remain Strong in Q1 2026 – S&P Global Platts May 2026
  • Crop Weather Update: U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields Below Average – USDA May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the soybean cost curve is trending upward due to rising input costs notably fertilizer and labor, compounded by ongoing supply chain disruptions and adverse weather impacting key growing regions such as Brazil and the U.S. Technological advances in yield improvement partially mitigate cost pressures but remain unevenly adopted. A significant risk to producers and traders is heightened volatility from unpredictable climate events, which may reshape cost competitiveness and pressures on margins into the next planting cycle.
  • USDA May 2026 Crop Cost and Return Report
  • Brazilian Agriculture Ministry April 2026 Crop Cost Analysis
  • International Grains Council May 2026 Outlook
  • Bloomberg: Soybean Production Costs Rise Amid Global Input Inflation (May 2026)
  • Reuters: Weather Risks Cloud Soybean Cost Structure Ahead of 2026 Harvest

    • Canola 769.00 (CAD/MT)

  • As of early June 2026, canola prices have slightly softened following a strong rally in prior months driven by tight global supplies and reduced Canadian acreage due to unfavorable spring weather. Export demand from Asia remains robust but is facing headwinds from recent currency volatility and slower biofuel mandates growth in key markets. A major risk is the potential for adverse weather in Canada’s key growing regions this summer, which could further tighten supplies or disrupt harvest timing, adding volatility to prices.
  • Canadian Canola Seed Exports Update May 2026
  • USDA June 2026 Oilseeds Outlook
  • Bloomberg: Canola Prices Hit Seasonal Highs Amid Supply Concerns
  • Ag — Canada: Weather Impact on 2026 Canola Crop Prospects
  • As of mid-2026, global canola supply-demand balances reflect continued tightening, driven by tighter Canadian output due to adverse weather impacting yields. Strong export demand from Asia coupled with higher global vegetable oil prices has pressured inventories lower. However, ongoing geopolitical supply chain risks and variable acreage decisions in key regions create uncertainty around the second half of the year’s availability and pricing. Monitoring Canadian crop progress through June will be critical for near-term market expectations.
  • Canadian Canola Supply-Demand Update May 2026
  • May 2026 USDA Oilseeds Report: Canola Supply Dynamics
  • ICE Canola Futures Market Report June 1, 2026
  • Global Vegetable Oil Demand Tightens Canola Inventories - Bloomberg, May 2026
  • Canola Crop Progress and Condition Report - Alberta Agriculture May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the global canola cost curve is increasingly shaped by rising input costs—fertilizer and energy pressures have pushed production expenses upward, particularly for higher-yield regions. Canadian farmers remain near the lower end of the cost curve due to improved seed technology and scale efficiencies, supporting competitive exports. However, volatility in natural gas prices and potential tightening of export logistics present key downside risks to supply cost predictability and margins.
  • Canola Production Costs and Outlook Q1 2026
  • 2026 Global Oilseed Cost Curve Review - Oil World Report April 2026
  • Fertilizer Price Pressures and Impact on Canadian Canola - Statistics Canada, May 2026
  • Global Edible Oil Market Constraints Weigh on Canola Margins - S&P Global Commodity Insights, May 2026

    • Cocoa 3,883.00 (USD/MT)

  • As of early June 2026, cocoa prices have shown modest gains driven by tighter supply forecasts from major West African producers, particularly Ivory Coast and Ghana, following reports of reduced crop yields linked to adverse weather and pest pressures. Demand remains stable, supported by seasonal upticks in chocolate consumption ahead of mid-year holidays. Key risks include potential rainy season disruptions affecting harvesting logistics and evolving geopolitical tensions that may impact export flows from the region.
  • April 2026 ICCO Quarterly Report on Cocoa Market
  • Cocoa Prices Climb on West African Production Concerns - Reuters May 2026
  • Ghana Cocoa Board Issues 2026 Crop Outlook Update - May 2026
  • Market — Watch Commodity Corner: Cocoa Supply and Demand Tightening - May 2026
  • As of May 2026, global cocoa supply remains tight, driven by extended dry conditions impacting West African harvests, primarily in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together produce over 60% of global cocoa. Demand from confectionery manufacturers is stable but poised for moderate growth amid inflationary pressures on consumer markets. Inventory drawdowns at key exchanges signal constrained availability. Risks include potential production disruptions from weather volatility and political instability in West Africa, which could exacerbate supply constraints and price volatility.
  • World Cocoa Foundation Annual Supply Report May 2026
  • International Cocoa Organization Quarterly Market Report April 2026
  • FAO Cocoa Production Update May 2026
  • Reuters: Cocoa Prices Edge Higher on Ghana Rainfall Concerns April 2026
  • Bloomberg: Cocoa Inventory Declines Signal Tight Market May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the cocoa cost curve indicates rising production costs largely driven by increased labor expenses and climate-related yield volatility in West African hubs, particularly Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. This has shifted the cost curve upward, tightening supply at lower cost points and supporting prices despite global demand uncertainties. Key risks include unpredictable weather patterns exacerbating production costs and geopolitical tensions impacting West African export logistics, which could further distort the cost structure and market balance.
  • ICCO Quarterly Bulletin April 2026
  • World Cocoa Foundation 2026 Market Outlook Report
  • Reuters: Cocoa Prices Supported by Supply Cost Pressures, May 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Cocoa Cost Curve Analysis Q1 2026
  • FAO Crop Prospects Report May 2026: Cocoa Production Risks

    • Coffee 2.68 (USd/lb.)

  • As of June 2026, coffee prices have increased modestly amidst forecasts of tighter supply due to adverse weather conditions in Brazil, the world's largest exporter. Recent dry spells and La Niña effects have raised concerns about Arabica crop yields, tightening global inventories. However, demand uncertainty linked to economic slowdowns in key consumer markets like the US and Europe could limit upside potential. Risks remain elevated regarding the severity of weather impacts and their persistence into the next harvest season.
  • ICE Coffee Futures Report May 2026
  • Brazil Weather Impact Coffee Crop 2026 – USDA May 2026
  • Coffee Prices Steady Amid Supply Concerns and Demand Risks
  • International Coffee Organization April 2026 Monthly Market Report
  • As of mid-2026, global coffee supply is facing tightening due to adverse weather impacts in key producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, decreasing crop yields notably for Arabica varieties. Demand remains robust, driven by strong consumption growth in emerging markets and specialty coffee sectors. Inventory levels are tightening, exerting upward pressure on prices. Key risks include unpredictable climatic conditions going forward and potential socio-political unrest in producing regions, which may further disrupt supply chains and exacerbate volatility.
  • ICO Quarterly Coffee Market Report Q1 2026
  • Brazil Coffee Crop Outlook May 2026
  • Vietnam Coffee Export Review April 2026
  • Bloomberg: Coffee Prices Climb Amid Supply Concerns - May 2026
  • Rabobank Coffee Market Update May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the coffee cost curve reflects upward pressure driven by rising input costs, including labor and fertilizer prices, alongside adverse weather impacts in key Brazilian and Vietnamese growing regions. While supply chain disruptions have eased compared to 2025, persistent climate variability and escalating sustainability compliance costs continue to elevate production thresholds for mid- and high-grade arabica. Key uncertainty remains demand resilience amid elevated consumer prices and substitution risks in major consuming markets.
  • International Coffee Organization Quarterly Cost Update April 2026
  • Brazil Coffee Harvest Report May 2026 – CONAB
  • Fertilizer Price Impact on Coffee Production Costs, Rabobank April 2026
  • Reuters: Global Coffee Supply Tightening in 2026 on Weather Risks, May 2026
  • Sustainability Certification Costs and Coffee Producer Margins, ITC Report March 2026

    • Sugar 0.14 (USd/lb.)

  • Sugar prices have declined modestly in May 2026 due to increased output forecasts from Brazil, the world's largest producer, driven by favorable weather and expanding harvested area. Concurrently, improving Indian export policies have eased regional supply tightness. However, ongoing uncertainty remains from potential El Niño effects that could disrupt production in key Asian suppliers later this year, alongside global energy price volatility affecting ethanol demand and sugarcane allocation.
  • USDA May 2026 Sugar Outlook Report
  • Brazil’s 2026 Sugarcane Crop Expansion Boosts Global Supply
  • Indian Sugar Exports Set to Moderate in 2026 on Policy Shifts
  • El Niño Risks Weigh on Sugar Market Outlook, ICAC Report May 2026
  • As of early June 2026, global sugar supply tightness persists due to a combination of lower output in key producers like Brazil and India, mainly driven by adverse weather conditions and slowing crop yields. Consumption growth remains steady, particularly from emerging markets, sustaining firm spot prices. The main risk hinges on upcoming monsoon performance in India and weather in Southeast Asia, which could either alleviate or exacerbate supply constraints during the peak marketing season.
  • USDA June 2026 Sugar Supply and Demand Report
  • International Sugar Organization Monthly Market Report June 2026
  • Brazil's 2026 Sugar Output Revised Down on Weather Concerns - Reuters May 2026
  • India’s Sugarcane Crop Faces Monsoon Challenges, Impact on Supply - Bloomberg May 2026
  • Global Sugar Demand Steady Amid Tight Supplies - Financial Times May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the global sugar cost curve reflects tighter supplies driven by adverse weather impacts in Brazil and India’s regulatory export restrictions, lifting production costs at higher-cost mills. Brazilian drought and Indian export curbs have pushed mid-tier producers up the cost curve, reducing available surplus sugar. A key risk remains the volatility in energy prices impacting ethanol production economics in Brazil, which can shift cane allocation and thus sugar supply, adding uncertainty to future cost curve dynamics.
  • USDA Sugar Market Outlook, May 2026
  • International Sugar Organization Monthly Market Report May 2026
  • Rabobank 2026 Sugar Cost Curve Analysis, April 2026
  • Bloomberg: Sugar Supply Tightens Amid Brazil Drought and India Export Limits, May 2026
  • Reuters: Ethanol Price Volatility Adds Risk to Sugar Cost Mix, April 2026

    • Orange Juice 1.59 (USd/lb.)

  • As of mid-2026, orange juice prices have edged up driven primarily by lower-than-expected Brazilian orange harvests due to adverse weather disrupting flowering and fruit set. Supply tightness contrasts with steady demand, especially from North American and European buyers. However, prices face uncertainty from potential easing of weather conditions during the key Brazilian crop development phase and risks of logistical disruptions in export channels, which could further constrain supply or cause volatility.
  • USDA June 2026 Citrus Quarterly Outlook
  • Brazil’s Orange Crop Reduced as Frost and Drought Hit, Rabobank Report, May 2026
  • Orange Juice Prices Climb on Supply Concerns - Bloomberg, May 28, 2026
  • ICE Futures U.S. Orange Juice Contract Price Summary - May 2026
  • As of early June 2026, orange juice supply remains constrained due to adverse weather impacts in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, notably drought conditions reducing citrus yields. This tightening supply has pushed futures prices higher despite steady global consumption, driven by demand growth in North America and Europe. A key risk remains the potential for further climatic disruptions in Brazil’s second half of the year, which could exacerbate supply deficits and increase price volatility.
  • Brazil Citrus Crop Outlook - May 2026
  • Orange Juice Prices Rally Amid Supply Concerns
  • International Citrus Growers Association May 2026 Report
  • ICE Orange Juice Futures Daily Market Update - May 2026
  • European Orange Juice Consumption Trends Q1 2026
  • As of mid-2026, orange juice production costs have edged higher, primarily due to rising labor expenses and input cost inflation in Brazil, the world's leading supplier. Weather disruptions in key growing regions have constrained output, tightening supply and elevating breakeven prices along the cost curve. A key risk remains the potential for adverse weather events in the coming months and any shifts in Brazilian export policies that could further compress margins or disrupt global supplies.
  • Brazil Orange Juice Production Costs Rise Q1 2026
  • USDA Citrus Production Report May 2026
  • Rabobank: Orange Juice Cost Curve Tightens Amid Supply Constraints
  • Bloomberg: Weather Impacts Brazil Orange Crop and Juice Prices
  • CME Group: Orange Juice Futures Market Overview, May 2026

    • Cotton 0.81 (USd/lb.)

  • Cotton prices in May 2026 have edged higher, driven primarily by tightening global supply amid adverse weather impacts in major producing regions like India and the US. Inventory drawdowns have supported firmer prices, while sustained demand from textile manufacturers in Asia continues to underpin the market. However, risks remain from potential yield rebounds due to upcoming monsoon patterns and the ongoing uncertainty in international trade policies that could affect export flows.
  • USDA May 2026 Cotton Outlook Report
  • ICAC Cotton Market Review - May 2026
  • Bloomberg: Global Cotton Prices Rise on Supply Concerns, May 2026
  • Reuters: Textile Demand Sustains Cotton Price Rally, May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, global cotton supply is tightening due to below-average outputs in major producers like India and the US, driven by weather disruptions and input cost pressures. Demand remains firm, particularly from textile industries in Asia, sustaining robust price levels. Key risk includes potential shifts in China’s import policies or unseasonal weather affecting crop yields in major exporting countries, which could exacerbate supply constraints and volatility.
  • USDA Cotton Outlook - May 2026
  • ICAC Cotton Market Review April 2026
  • India Cotton Production Hit by Dry Weather - Reuters May 2026
  • China's Textile Demand Supports Cotton Prices - Bloomberg May 2026
  • International Cotton Advisory Committee: Seasonal Risks Remain High
  • As of mid-2026, the global cotton cost curve reflects tightening supply with rising input costs, especially for energy and fertilizer, pushing the curve upward mainly among smaller producers. Large-scale producers with technological efficiencies maintain lower cost positioning, preserving market share. Recent advances in irrigation and pest management help flatten some producers’ cost curves, but weather-related yield risks and trade policy uncertainties pose significant constraints on cost competitiveness and market dynamics.
  • ICAC 2026 Mid-Year Cotton Market Review
  • USDA Cotton Cost of Production Estimates, May 2026
  • Bloomberg: Cotton Prices and Producer Cost Curves Update – April 2026
  • International Cotton Advisory Committee Report: Inputs Cost Pressures, March 2026
  • Reuters: Weather Variability Adds Risk to Cotton Cost Efficiency, May 2026

    • Lumber 0.00 (USD/1000 board feet)

  • Lumber prices in May 2026 have edged modestly higher amid tightening supply from North American mills, where production cuts due to rising energy costs continue to constrain output. Demand remains robust, driven by sustained residential construction activity in the U.S. and Canada. However, risks persist from potential interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could dampen housing starts and weigh on lumber consumption.
  • May 2026 Lumber Market Update - Random Lengths
  • US Lumber Production Cuts Signal Supply Tightness - US Forest Service
  • Residential Construction Trends and Lumber Demand - NAHB Report May 2026
  • Federal Reserve May 2026 Meeting Minutes - Impact on Housing and Lumber
  • As of mid-2026, lumber supply constraints persist due to ongoing reduced harvesting in key North American forests, exacerbated by tight environmental regulations. Demand remains robust, driven by sustained residential construction despite higher mortgage rates. Inventory levels are tight, supporting firm prices. Key risk involves potential regulatory changes or severe wildfire seasons disrupting supply further, while demand could soften if housing starts decline sharply amid rising borrowing costs.
  • NA Hardwood Lumber Supply Tight Amid Environmental Restrictions
  • Lumber Prices Hold on Supply Constraints and Steady Construction
  • US Housing Starts Remain Resilient, Supporting Lumber Demand
  • Canadian Lumber Exports Impacted by Production Delays in Q1 2026
  • Wildfire Impact on Pacific Northwest Timber Supply Risks Heightened
  • As of mid-2026, the lumber cost curve reflects rising production costs driven by heightened environmental regulations and supply chain constraints in North America. Softwood lumber prices remain elevated due to sustained strong demand in residential construction and renovation amid tight inventory levels. However, risks persist from potential interest rate hikes curbing housing demand and from volatility in transportation costs, which could alter the cost dynamics and compress margins for lumber producers.
  • North American Lumber Market Report - May 2026
  • U.S. Forest Service Timber Products Output 2025 Report
  • May 2026 Wood Markets Monthly Lumber Cost Update
  • Analysis: Timber Logistics and Cost Pressures in 2026
  • RISI Wood Fiber and Lumber Cost Trends Q1 2026

    • Ethanol 2.16 (USD/gal.)

  • As of June 2026, ethanol prices have softened moderately after peaking in Q1 due to elevated corn feedstock costs and sustained high energy prices. The main driver remains tight corn supply amid adverse weather limiting crop prospects. However, increased ethanol export restrictions from key consuming countries and U.S. EPA mandate uncertainties are constraining further price gains. Risks include potential shifts in U.S. biofuel policy and weather developments impacting corn yields, which could re-tighten or ease the supply-demand balance rapidly.
  • USDA June Crop and Ethanol Outlook 2026
  • EIA Monthly Energy Review: Biofuels Prices May 2026
  • Reuters: U.S. Ethanol Prices Ease Amid Corn Supply Concerns - May 2026
  • Bloomberg: EPA Biofuel Mandate Uncertainty Weighs on Ethanol Futures – April 2026
  • As of mid-2026, ethanol supply tightness has intensified due to reduced Midwest corn harvest estimates and cautious production ramp-up amid elevated energy prices. Demand growth is supported by robust biofuel blending mandates in the U.S. and Brazil, yet export uncertainties remain amid shifting trade policies and logistical constraints. A key risk to supply-demand balance is weather variability affecting feedstock availability and regulatory shifts impacting renewable fuel standards.
  • USDA Monthly Ethanol Report - May 2026
  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2026
  • Renewable Fuel Standard Update – EPA April 2026 Notice
  • Brazilian Ethanol Export Slowdown Amid Corn Crop Concerns
  • Bloomberg: Ethanol Market Faces Supply Pressure from Corn Shortfall
  • As of mid-2026, the ethanol cost curve remains pressured by rising corn prices driven by sustained demand for biofuels and tightening agricultural supply conditions linked to recent adverse weather trends. Producer margins are compressing especially for higher-cost facilities reliant on less efficient feedstocks. The key risk is regulatory uncertainty around blending mandates post-2026, which could alter demand forecasts materially and reshape the cost curve hierarchy through shifts in mandated volumes and import tariff adjustments.
  • USDA June 2026 Biofuels Sector Outlook
  • EIA Monthly Energy Review: Ethanol Production Costs, May 2026
  • Renewable Fuels Association Q1 2026 Ethanol Cost and Margin Update
  • Bloomberg: Corn Prices Pressure Ethanol Margins in H1 2026
  • IEA Bioenergy Task 39 Report: Global Ethanol Production Costs 2026

    • Live Cattle 2.39 (USd/lb.)

  • Live cattle prices have edged slightly lower in May 2026, pressured primarily by ample supplies from herd rebuilding efforts and subdued export demand, especially to key Asian markets. Rising feed costs and lingering concerns about consumer beef demand amid inflationary pressures are weighing on margins. A key uncertainty remains the trajectory of U.S. retail beef consumption and how global trade negotiations may influence future export flows.
  • USDA May 2026 Cattle on Feed Report
  • Live Cattle Futures Retreat on Expanding Supplies - CME Group
  • May 2026 USDA Meat Export Update
  • Rising Feed Costs Pressure Live Cattle Margins - Bloomberg, May 2026
  • As of May 2026, live cattle supplies have tightened, driven by ongoing herd rebuilding efforts and slower-than-expected placements of feeder cattle from drought-affected regions. Demand remains stable but is pressured by higher feed costs and consumer meat price sensitivity. Key risk includes potential adverse weather impacting pasture conditions, which could constrain future cattle availability and disrupt the supply-demand balance through the second half of 2026.
  • USDA May 2026 Cattle Inventory Report
  • CME Group May 2026 Live Cattle Market Update
  • USDA Cattle on Feed Report - May 2026
  • Rabobank Livestock Quarterly: May 2026
  • Reuters - US Live Cattle Market Tightens on Herd Rebuild, May 2026
  • As of early June 2026, the live cattle cost curve shows upward pressure driven primarily by rising feed grain prices and tightening fed cattle supplies following weather-related drought impacts in key U.S. producing regions. Production cost increases have narrowed margins for smaller feedlots, concentrating profitable operations in lower-cost, large-scale producers. Key uncertainties include evolving drought conditions and export demand shifts, which could further compress supply or trigger price volatility in live cattle markets.
  • USDA May 2026 Feedlot Cost Report
  • CME Group: Live Cattle Futures and Cost Structure Analysis, May 2026
  • Rabobank Livestock Quarterly Q2 2026
  • USDA Cattle on Feed Report May 2026
  • Reuters: Higher Feed Costs Pressure US Live Cattle Market, June 2026

    • Feeder Cattle 3.48 (USd/lb.)

  • Feeder cattle prices in May 2026 have shown a modest decline, pressured by continued high feed costs and uncertain export demand amid global economic slowdowns. Retail beef demand softness and an expanding feeder cattle supply have also contributed to price weakness. Upcoming U.S. weather conditions and corn price volatility pose downside risks to prices in the near term, especially if feed costs rise further or drought conditions expand in key cattle-growing regions.
  • USDA May 2026 Cattle Report
  • CME Group Feeder Cattle Price Update, May 2026
  • USDA Grain and Feed Outlook, May 2026
  • Reuters: Feeder Cattle Prices Face Pressure Amid Feed Cost Rally
  • As of June 2026, feeder cattle supplies remain tight amid ongoing herd rebuilding efforts accelerated by higher beef prices and favorable feed costs. Demand from feedlots continues strong but faces pressure from rising feed grain prices and potential export uncertainties due to tightening global protein markets. Weather variability in key Plains states introduces supply risk. The main constraint is balancing accelerated restocking with herd health amid volatile input costs, which could influence feeder cattle placements in the coming months.
  • USDA AMS Weekly Feeder Cattle Report May 2026
  • USDA Cattle on Feed Report May 2026
  • Livestock Market Report - May 2026, CME Group
  • Rabobank: US Feeder Cattle Market Outlook June 2026
  • Reuters: US Feeder Cattle Prices Face Margin Pressure from Feed Costs May 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the feeder cattle cost curve shows upward pressure on break-even prices driven by elevated feed costs and tighter calf supplies following drought-impacted breeding seasons in key U.S. cattle states. Margins remain squeezed especially for producers relying on corn-based rations amid recent volatility in grain markets. A key uncertainty is ongoing weather patterns affecting pasture recovery and feedlot input costs, which could either exacerbate or alleviate cost pressures in coming months.
  • USDA Feedlot Enterprise Cost Estimates - Q1 2026
  • CME Group Feeder Cattle Cost Trends Report - April 2026
  • USDA May 2026 Crop Progress and Conditions Report
  • Rabobank Midyear Cattle Market Outlook - May 2026
  • Reuters: Rising Feed Costs Challenge U.S. Feeder Cattle Margins - May 2026

    • Lean Hogs 1.00 (USd/lb.)

  • Lean hog prices have firmed modestly in May 2026, supported by tightening US pork supplies due to recent herd reductions prompted by rising feed costs and disease management efforts. Export demand, particularly from Asia, remains a key price support amid global protein tightness. However, downside risks include potential production increases if feed costs ease and ongoing geopolitical tensions that could disrupt trade flows.
  • USDA Pork Outlook May 2026
  • CME Lean Hog Futures Price Update May 2026
  • Global Pork Market Tightness to Support Prices - Rabobank May 2026
  • China Pork Import Demand Lifts US Exports - USDA FAS Report April 2026
  • As of June 2026, lean hog supply is tightening due to prolonged supply chain disruptions and reduced herd inventories following recent disease outbreaks in key producing regions. Demand remains resilient, supported by strong domestic consumption and export growth to Asia, but rising feed costs and inflationary pressures pose risks to producer margins and could constrain supply recovery. Market volatility may increase as weather uncertainties and trade tensions continue to influence supply-demand balances.
  • USDA May 2026 Hogs & Pigs Report
  • USDA Cattle on Feed and Hogs Reports - April 2026
  • Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q2 2026
  • Bloomberg: Lean Hog Futures Volatility in Q2 2026
  • USDA Livestock Market News - June 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the lean hog cost curve shows moderate upward pressure driven primarily by rising feed grain prices and tighter packer margins amid strong export demand from Asia. Production costs are elevated due to persistent inflation in energy and labor, constraining profitability for smaller producers. A key uncertainty remains input cost volatility, particularly corn and soybean meal prices, which could compress margins further if supply disruptions persist or demand weakens.
  • USDA June 2026 Feed Cost and Hog Production Analysis
  • CME Group Lean Hog Margins and Cost Structure – May 2026 Report
  • Rabobank Livestock Quarterly – June 2026 Update
  • Bloomberg: Rising Feed Costs Pressure U.S. Hog Producers, May 2026
  • USDA ERS Quarterly Hog Cost of Production Review, Q1 2026

    • Best Commodities 1yr

    Tickernameunitsytd1month6months1yrRank
    JI1 ComdtySilver (Tokyo)JPY/g2.372.3774.44164.6380.48
    XAGJPY CurncySilver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.0.342.4962.98164.0376.50
    XAGUSD CurncySilver SpotUSD/t oz.2.350.7657.58148.2768.87
    SI1 ComdtySilver (Comex)USD/t oz.3.020.3859.55145.5368.49
    XAGGBP CurncySilver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.1.981.7253.91133.1362.92

    Worst Commodities 1yr

    Tickernameunitsytd1month6months1yrRank
    JO1 ComdtyOrange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-26.08-15.87-11.77-68.82-32.15
    CC1 ComdtyCocoa (ICE)USD/MT-36.807.98-34.56-58.70-28.43
    SB1 ComdtySugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.-4.41-4.281.27-32.08-11.70
    RR1 ComdtyRough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt21.9713.4422.79-17.046.40
    KC1 ComdtyCoffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.-29.89-6.41-30.45-9.46-15.44