Supporting Data for May 2026 Commodities Strategy

Midlincoln Commodities Rankings from best to worst

NameRank
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.69.22
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.46.32
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT38.79
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.38.23
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.29.48
NickelUSD/MT23.24
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.22.69
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.21.92
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.21.27
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT19.83
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.18.74
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT16.32
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.15.54
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.13.84
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.11.80
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.8.58
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT6.55
SteelUSD/MT5.56
Cocking CoalCNY/MT3.73
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt-6.06
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.-7.84
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.-10.95
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu-12.23
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-21.29
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT-29.88

Commodities Monthly Performance

NameUnitsLastPriceCurrencyMonthChange USDpct
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.8390000000000001USD17.00
NickelUSD/MT19365USD14.59
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT3596.00USD11.50
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g380.00JPY10.59
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.3.5753USD8.78
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.7495999999999999USD7.67
Cocking CoalCNY/MT1170CNY7.34
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT49423.00USD6.80
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.5.976USD6.74
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.6.33USD6.48
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg215.50JPY6.00
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.4.78USD5.40
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT12996.50USD5.15
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.75.75USD4.14
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.75.2727USD3.55
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT73.94USD3.14
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT750.30CAD3.09
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3344.50USD2.45
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.53USD2.43
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.1525.6400USD2.30
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.64.1637EUR1.89
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.11801.3800JPY1.67
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3522.00USD1.51
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu2.84USD1.07
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.320.20USD1.04
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.2001.2000USD1.01
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.55.3732GBP0.83
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt11.16USD0.45
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.436597.1250INR0.37
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.2.945USD0.00
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.10.235USD0.00
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.16USD0.00
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.3.7218USD-0.11
SteelUSD/MT605USD-0.17
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.1495USD-0.27
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.4599.9000USD-1.50
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.4609.50USD-1.71
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.107.41USD-1.77
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.3921.1500EUR-3.02
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.721227.5625JPY-3.23
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g23870.00JPY-3.43
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.2.864USD-3.91
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.3384.0800GBP-4.08
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.1.0128USD-5.15
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.893USD-5.82
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl105000.00JPY-8.70
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.101.06USD-9.48
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.3.9189999999999996USD-10.15
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT1266.50USD-15.74
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl97760.00JPY-19.17
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet--USD

Commodities YTD Performance

NameUnitsLastPriceCurrencyYTDChange USDpct
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT1266.50USD107.62
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.3.5753USD105.45
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.3.9189999999999996USD87.47
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.101.06USD77.08
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.107.41USD75.71
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl97760.00JPY69.58
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.7495999999999999USD51.50
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.8390000000000001USD29.94
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.6.33USD22.20
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl105000.00JPY22.09
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT750.30CAD20.09
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.1.0128USD19.43
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg215.50JPY16.68
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3522.00USD14.04
Cocking CoalCNY/MT1170CNY11.85
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT49423.00USD11.51
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.436597.1250INR9.54
NickelUSD/MT19365USD8.21
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.53USD7.88
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt11.16USD7.51
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.4.78USD7.11
SteelUSD/MT605USD7.08
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3344.50USD5.59
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.320.20USD5.19
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.3.7218USD4.69
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g23870.00JPY4.05
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.4599.9000USD4.05
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.4609.50USD3.98
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.721227.5625JPY3.84
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.5.976USD3.78
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.3921.1500EUR3.40
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.3384.0800GBP2.68
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.75.75USD2.63
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.75.2727USD1.58
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.64.1637EUR0.86
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT12996.50USD0.75
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.55.3732GBP0.26
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g380.00JPY0.00
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.2.945USD0.00
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.10.235USD0.00
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.16USD0.00
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.1495USD-0.13
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.11801.3800JPY-2.10
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.2001.2000USD-9.42
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.1525.6400USD-11.21
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.893USD-12.14
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT73.94USD-15.48
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu2.84USD-18.16
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.2.864USD-25.09
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT3596.00USD-41.47
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet--USD

Key Topics and News

Oil Production Cost Curve
Oil Supply and Demand
Aluminium Cost Curve
Aluminium Supply and Demand
Nickel Metal Cost Curve
Nickel Metal Supply Demand
Copper Cost Curve
Copper Supply Demand

Recent Commodities Ideas ChartArt

Top 5 Commodities Longs Based on Momentum

Tickernameunits1monthytd6months1yrRank
JI1 ComdtySilver (Tokyo)JPY/g10.590.0070.40158.5079.83
XAGJPY CurncySilver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.1.67-2.1059.01157.6172.76
SI1 ComdtySilver (Comex)USD/t oz.4.142.6358.94144.5969.22
XAGUSD CurncySilver SpotUSD/t oz.3.551.5856.38146.3968.77
XAGGBP CurncySilver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.0.830.2651.31129.1960.44

Top 5 Commodities Shorts Based on Momentum

Tickernameunits1monthytd6months1yrRank
CC1 ComdtyCocoa (ICE)USD/MT11.50-41.47-39.40-61.75-29.88
JO1 ComdtyOrange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-5.82-12.144.88-62.93-21.29
NG1 ComdtyNatural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu1.07-18.16-26.23-11.53-12.23
KC1 ComdtyCoffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.-3.91-25.09-25.69-3.26-10.95
SB1 ComdtySugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.-0.27-0.135.80-29.05-7.84

Estimates of Commodities Avg Annual Prices

NameUnitsAvg2014Avg2015Avg2016Avg2017Avg2018Avg2019Avg2020Avg2021Avg2022Avg2023Avg2024Avg2025Avg2026
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.94.9950.2842.7551.2066.4756.1540.1866.8795.0378.2877.4163.1180.39
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.101.8055.5744.4954.9372.1363.1443.5569.5699.4583.0481.8767.0682.52
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl65510.0040930.0027931.6737180.8347237.5040296.6729553.3344018.3370425.0071472.5077025.0064156.6784042.50
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu4.302.632.553.102.992.622.093.696.672.642.593.443.23
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.2.671.661.411.661.971.701.212.052.932.492.371.922.42
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.2.851.741.341.672.091.921.282.033.472.782.612.283.13
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT860.42514.50390.94495.81645.10584.38379.44575.481028.06814.38790.54684.58993.94
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl78761.6753452.5039289.1749809.1764072.5057185.8343763.3360145.0081399.1777566.6782500.0083000.0097250.00
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT7.878.546.016.2815.0524.6424.7851.4780.8183.8664.1175.7777.68
Cocking CoalCNY/MT1268.211413.171308.791264.711978.752485.291698.581776.671116.001105.75
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.1256.961164.131242.981261.421296.031393.651789.181793.081809.731959.542152.923537.834793.98
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g4244.084518.754351.504528.004513.174856.426090.506300.087543.588749.6710390.3317524.6725026.75
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.1257.901165.041244.581260.771291.161390.271781.961792.231802.741946.002143.253524.474775.54
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.942.711046.481121.541119.381082.191241.641555.331512.171713.251814.651979.823126.084101.07
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.760.72762.51916.27977.94953.381094.401384.481303.821456.451582.131691.072695.923564.81
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.132439.14140867.54135395.43141150.35140707.55151395.17189708.45196137.93235376.45272542.25323040.97538181.63753415.13
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.76693.9874391.5383373.7682136.4686707.7497986.21132303.55132329.73140790.36161008.04177172.37311652.22434478.23
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.18.9915.6817.0517.2216.0216.1720.6725.0721.7923.5624.7141.9876.96
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g63.8660.5859.2061.4155.9956.4970.0888.2089.96104.98119.70205.33391.90
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.19.0015.7217.0817.2416.0216.1520.5325.0121.7123.4024.6042.5077.22
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.14.2214.1315.3915.3313.4214.4217.8421.0820.6021.8122.7337.6566.32
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.11.4810.2912.6113.3911.8212.7115.9118.1817.5119.0219.4132.4857.61
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.1997.591901.201852.361930.391744.571758.402183.742735.592827.783275.583710.946493.1412284.15
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1387.321069.77992.14958.52908.21861.19896.211090.11954.68993.07908.481385.882097.26
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.799.70704.93617.60862.401026.021512.272195.902423.552148.351397.87949.141273.911642.59
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.3.132.542.202.812.972.712.764.204.013.813.974.795.74
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT6870.465589.334873.506196.006659.255991.086143.969216.298863.008437.088716.1710281.6712801.38
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT1884.901703.581619.131957.672138.581817.921723.332437.922737.042293.882290.252743.503230.88
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT2153.041976.132096.132872.253032.002483.582239.132956.583476.172622.672507.833054.673242.00
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT22013.7516282.9217658.3320154.1720428.3318467.5017087.3330047.0031787.7525346.3327085.6733717.6747256.75
NickelUSD/MT16717.5012147.089583.7510585.8313551.6713755.8313669.2518449.6726612.0822084.5817037.8315110.3317362.00
SteelUSD/MT526.25355.00369.38493.71548.13451.42446.42679.28734.83638.00591.83554.00574.25
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.0.384.243.793.743.663.853.585.716.795.774.434.294.46
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.2.605.704.854.634.914.955.367.088.946.455.795.295.61
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.0.001.462.142.412.512.832.824.735.413.673.553.212.95
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt14.1111.0810.2510.9511.5011.5012.8013.4516.5716.3716.8712.1410.94
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.1.749.459.719.779.428.959.3113.7015.0313.9712.0110.1110.24
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.430.26326.37313.93312.35340.27306.84313.10387.33426.30431.56351.60293.87308.93
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.370.310.320.340.300.290.310.560.680.550.470.470.60
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT441.19474.08482.08509.64503.82461.20492.67787.28956.78725.55633.33612.67685.08
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT3004.173059.252905.832018.422266.752386.252486.172496.252472.673179.337061.337093.674168.00
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.1.751.321.351.341.141.021.131.672.161.711.903.533.17
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.170.130.180.160.120.120.130.180.180.240.220.170.15
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.451.251.701.551.511.081.161.221.712.953.362.991.91
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.770.630.650.750.820.670.630.921.090.830.840.670.66
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet337.38270.06295.23379.39464.43362.89496.94837.69725.05163.360.000.000.00
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg207.43190.36171.15241.90177.54181.20167.08167.90167.90167.90167.90169.87193.00
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.171.531.511.521.401.371.212.102.162.162.162.162.16
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.1.511.481.191.181.141.151.071.241.421.721.782.202.41
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.022.041.441.431.481.421.371.511.742.252.413.223.64
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.1.060.710.650.700.690.720.580.910.970.800.880.840.97

Commodities News, Table of Contents:

OilNatural GasCocking CoalGoldSilverPlatinumPalladiumCopper
3Mo Aluminum3Mo Zinc3Mo TinNickelSteelCornWheatOats
Rough RiceSoybeanCanolaCocoaCoffeeSugarOrange JuiceCotton
WoolLumberRubberEthanolLive CattleFeeder CattleLean Hogs

Oil 107.41 (USD/bbl.)

  • Oil prices have edged higher in recent weeks, supported by robust demand recovery and ongoing supply discipline by OPEC+. Key drivers include resilient global economic activity, especially in Asia, and tighter supply due to geopolitical tensions in major exporting regions. However, risks remain elevated with potential demand slowdown from emerging market inflation and the threat of increased US shale output which could cap further gains.
  • IEA Oil Market Report June 2024
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report June 2024
  • Oil Prices Rise as Demand Outlook Improves, Supply Tightness Persists - Bloomberg June 2024
  • US EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report June 2024
  • Recent oil supply-demand dynamics show tightening due to a combination of sustained OPEC+ production cuts and resilient global demand, despite ongoing inflation pressures and slower economic growth in some regions. The main driver remains coordinated supply restraint to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties, chiefly Russia-Ukraine tensions and Middle East risks. Key risks include demand destruction from aggressive monetary tightening and potential policy shifts in major consuming countries, which could rapidly alter the balance and price outlook.
  • IEA Oil Market Report June 2024
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report June 2024
  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2024
  • Bloomberg: Oil Rallies as OPEC+ Cuts Tighten Supply
  • Reuters: Global Oil Demand Growth Faces Headwinds Amid Inflation Concerns
  • The oil cost curve remains elevated amid ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict impacting major producers. Costs for new developments are rising due to inflationary pressures on materials and labor. While high prices incentivize increased production from higher-cost producers, demand uncertainty from global economic slowdown and energy transition policies pose constraints. Near-term curves show upward pressure, but medium-term trajectories depend on demand resilience and technological advances lowering production costs.
  • IEA Oil Market Report May 2024
  • IEA Analysis on Oil Supply Costs and Market Dynamics
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report June 2024
  • Bloomberg: Inflation Drives Up Oil Production Costs Despite Demand Threats
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Oil Cost Curve Adjusts Amid Tight Margins

    • Natural Gas 2.84 (USD/MMBtu)

  • Natural gas prices have recently experienced moderate volatility amid fluctuating demand driven by shifts in global industrial activity and seasonal weather changes. Supply-side constraints persist due to maintenance issues in key production regions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties affecting European market dynamics. A major risk remains the pace of economic recovery in Asia, which could either tighten or alleviate global LNG demand, impacting future price stability and contributing to market uncertainty.
  • EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
  • IEA Natural Gas Market Report – April 2024
  • Natural Gas Prices Slip Amid Mild Weather, Supply Bullish Sentiment - Reuters April 2024
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration Monthly Energy Review April 2024
  • Global natural gas supply is tightening due to higher-than-expected demand recovery post-pandemic, especially from Asia and Europe amid energy security concerns. Supply constraints persist in key producing regions like the US and Russia, exacerbated by maintenance outages and geopolitical tensions. The main risk remains the potential for unexpected weather disruptions or geopolitical escalations that could further limit exports, putting upward pressure on prices and market volatility.
  • IEA Gas Market Report October 2023
  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook November 2023
  • BP Energy Outlook 2024: Natural Gas Trends
  • Reuters: Global LNG Supply Tightness to Persist into 2024
  • Bloomberg: European Gas Markets Face Supply Challenges Amid Cold Winter
  • The natural gas cost curve has shifted upward in early 2024 due to rising feedstock prices and regulatory constraints on hydraulic fracturing in key US basins. Supply growth is increasingly concentrated in lower-cost shale plays, but infrastructure bottlenecks and global LNG demand uncertainties pose notable risks to cost stability and curve flattening. Market tightness may persist if environmental policies further restrict production or if export demand fluctuates significantly.
  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook - Natural Gas Pricing
  • IEA Gas Market Report 2024 - Supply and Cost Analysis
  • Rystad Energy: US Gas Supply Cost Curve Update Q1 2024
  • S&P Global: The Impact of Infrastructure Constraints on Gas Costs
  • Bloomberg: LNG Demand Uncertainty Pressures Natural Gas Cost Curve

    • Cocking Coal 1,170.00 (CNY/MT)

  • Coking coal prices have experienced moderate volatility recently, influenced primarily by shifts in demand from China’s steel production sector as it balances post-COVID economic recovery with ongoing government restrictions. Supply-side constraints remain due to logistical issues and mining export regulations in key producer countries. Key risks include the potential for further Chinese policy tightening or economic slowdown, which would depress coal demand, and supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions or regulatory changes in major exporting nations.
  • China's Steel Output and Impact on Coking Coal Prices - Platts
  • Global Coking Coal Market Update - International Energy Agency
  • Coking Coal Prices and Supply Constraints - Reuters
  • Steel Production and Coal Demand Risks in 2024 - Bloomberg
  • Cocking coal supply is tightening amid increased export demand from key Asian markets and sustained domestic energy requirements. Limited new mining investments and regulatory constraints are constraining output growth, while infrastructure bottlenecks affect logistics. The primary risk remains geopolitical tensions and stricter environmental policies that could disrupt supply chains or dampen demand, adding uncertainty to market balance and pricing dynamics.
  • IEA Coal Market Update April 2024
  • Australia Coal Exports Hit New High in Q1 2024
  • China’s Coal Import Demand Drives Market Tightness
  • Coal Logistics Constraints Affect Supply Growth in 2024
  • Environmental Policies Challenge Global Coal Supply Outlook
  • Recent analysis of the Cocking coal cost curve indicates a moderate upward shift driven by rising input costs such as labor and transportation amid tightening regulatory compliance. This adjustment suggests higher marginal production costs, affecting coal supply dynamics and pricing strategies. An important uncertainty remains around future environmental policy tightenings and potential carbon pricing that could further elevate costs or restrict extraction feasibility, thereby impacting the curve's slope and competitive positioning of this coal basin.
  • Annual Coal Cost Report by U.S. EIA 2024
  • IEA Coal Market Report Q1 2024
  • S&P Global: Coal Cost Dynamics and Basin Competitiveness, March 2024
  • Bloomberg: Coal Supply Cost Pressures Amid Regulation Changes, Apr 2024
  • Energy Information Administration: Coal Producer Survey Data 2023

    • Gold 4,599.90 (USD/t oz.)

  • Gold prices have experienced modest gains over the past quarter, driven primarily by lingering inflation concerns and cautious Federal Reserve signaling on future interest rate hikes. The metal continues to benefit from geopolitical uncertainties and weak real yields, which support its status as a safe haven. However, the strength of the US dollar and potential aggressive monetary tightening remain key constraints, posing downside risks to further upward momentum in gold prices.
  • Gold prices rise amid inflation worries and Fed caution
  • World Gold Council Q1 2024 Gold Market Insight
  • US Dollar Strength Limits Gold Rally - Reuters
  • Federal Reserve Beige Book Highlights Economic Uncertainty
  • Gold supply and demand in early 2024 show moderate growth in mine production but slower recycling flows due to elevated prices, while investment demand remains cautious amid tightening monetary policies and geopolitical uncertainties. Central bank purchases continue to support demand, particularly from emerging markets, but elevated real interest rates constrain speculative buying. Key risks include potential shifts in US interest rate policy and economic growth that could significantly alter investment appetite.
  • World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q1 2024
  • USGS Mineral Commodity Summary: Gold 2024
  • IMF Working Paper on Gold Demand Drivers March 2024
  • Bloomberg: Central Banks Add Gold Amid Market Volatility
  • Reuters: Gold Stocks and Recycling Trends H1 2024
  • The gold cost curve currently shows a moderate upward shift driven by higher input costs, including rising energy prices and labor costs, which put pressure on lower-tier producers. The tightening cost structure favors mines with lower production costs, potentially leading to supply consolidation in the near term. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and gold price volatility remain key risks, as sudden price drops could impair higher-cost operations and disrupt planned output.
  • Gold Miners’ Cost Curves Tighten Amid Rising Costs
  • Energy Inflation Reshapes Gold Production Costs
  • Barrick Gold 2023 Cost Guidance and Production Outlook
  • Gold Cost-Curve Dynamics Under Uncertain Macroeconomic Conditions
  • Gold Cost Curves and Mine Viability Update

    • Silver 75.75 (USD/t oz.)

  • Silver prices have experienced moderate volatility recently, largely influenced by fluctuating dollar strength and interest rate policy signals from the Federal Reserve. Inflation concerns and industrial demand, particularly in electronics and solar sectors, support prices, while rising real yields and potential economic slowdown pose downside risks. Market liquidity and geopolitical tensions remain key uncertainties affecting near-term price direction.
  • Silver Market Summary and Latest Prices - LBMA
  • Comex Silver Futures Prices and Analysis - CME Group
  • Silver Price Forecast: Inflation Support Amid Fed Tightening - Reuters June 2024
  • Gold and Silver Prices React to Fed Comments, June 2024 - Bloomberg
  • Silver supply-demand dynamics in early 2024 show constrained mine production growth amid rising industrial demand, especially from the electronics and renewable energy sectors. Inventory drawdowns continue as ETF holdings decline, reflecting tight physical availability. Primary risks include potential shifts in Chinese government stockpile policies and inflation-driven cost pressures affecting mining output. Limited recent primary data suggests monitoring official reports for updates on supply chain disruptions and technological changes impacting silver consumption.
  • World Silver Survey 2024
  • USGS Mineral Commodity Summary: Silver 2024
  • Silver Market Tightness and ETF Flows - Reuters March 2024
  • Industrial Demand Driving Silver Prices – Bloomberg April 2024
  • IMF Report on Silver Commodity Outlook Q1 2024
  • The silver cost curve has shown modest upward pressure recently, driven mainly by rising energy and labor costs impacting major producing countries. While primary silver mine supply remains relatively stable, inflationary pressures in key markets like Mexico and Peru contribute to rising operating expenses. However, uncertainties in environmental regulations and geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains and shift cost dynamics further, potentially squeezing higher-cost producers out of the market.
  • Silver Cost Curve and Production Trends - CPM Group Q1 2024 Report
  • Metal — Miner: Inflationary Pressures Impact Silver Production Costs
  • Metals Focus Silver Mine Cost Analysis – April 2024 Update
  • Reuters: Rising Energy Prices Weigh on Silver Mining Costs
  • USGS Silver Statistics and Historical Mine Costs - 2023 Annual Review

    • Platinum 2,001.20 (USD/t oz.)

  • Platinum prices have exhibited moderate recovery in recent months, mainly driven by rising automotive demand amid tightening emission regulations and supply constraints from South African mines. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in energy policies pose significant risks to demand forecasts, while labor unrest in key production regions could further limit supply. Market participants remain cautious about economic growth uncertainties, which may temper industrial consumption of platinum.
  • Platinum Market Report Q1 2024
  • Recent Trends in Platinum Prices and Supply-Demand Outlook
  • Sasol Highlights Platinum Price Impact on Industrial Demand
  • Johnson Matthey Q1 2024 Results Discuss Platinum Pricing Drivers
  • Platinum supply tightness persists amid rising automotive demand, driven by stricter emission regulations increasing catalytic converter use. South African labor unrest and operational disruptions constrain mine output, exacerbating supply risks. Meanwhile, investment demand remains subdued due to high prices and economic uncertainty, creating a delicate balance. Key uncertainty lies in potential resolution of South African labor issues and global economic resilience influencing industrial and investment demands.
  • WWSA Platinum Market Report Q1 2024
  • Johnson Matthey Interim Results Highlight Demand Growth
  • South African Platinum Producers Face Supply Risks in 2024
  • Platinum Prices Hover Near Multi-Year High on Tight Supply
  • LME Metals Weekly: Platinum Market Tightness Persists
  • The platinum cost curve has seen upward pressure recently due to inflationary input costs and tighter supply conditions in major mining regions, particularly South Africa. Rising labor and energy expenses have shifted the marginal cost higher, reducing low-cost surplus production. This dynamic may constrain supply flexibility amid fluctuating demand from the automotive and industrial sectors. Key risks include geopolitical disruptions in mining hubs and potential changes in environmental regulations affecting operational costs. Recent data on cash cost per ounce is pivotal for near-term market positioning.
  • Anglo American Q1 2024 Platinum Cost Analysis
  • Sibanye-Stillwater Q1 2024 Platinum Production and Costs Report
  • Metals Focus Platinum Cost Curve Analysis, May 2024
  • Mining Weekly: South African Platinum Costs Rise on Energy Inflation
  • Reuters: Platinum Prices Impacted by Rising Mining Costs and Supply Risks

    • Palladium 1,525.64 (USD/t oz.)

  • Palladium prices have softened modestly in recent weeks amid easing semiconductor shortages and improved automotive production forecasts, reducing immediate industrial demand pressures. The shift toward electric vehicles and tighter emissions regulations continue to support palladium's long-term appeal. However, demand uncertainty remains elevated due to potential supply disruptions in key producing regions like Russia and South Africa, which could prompt renewed volatility.
  • Palladium Prices Pull Back as Auto Demand Outlook Changes
  • Johnson Matthey: Outlook for Palladium Demand in 2024
  • World Platinum Investment Council: Mid-2024 Palladium Market Update
  • Metal Focus Quarterly Review: Palladium Market Dynamics Q1 2024
  • Palladium supply has tightened recently due to production disruptions in key mining regions, notably Russia and South Africa, impacting global availability. Demand remains robust, driven primarily by automotive catalytic converters amid ongoing emissions regulations, though substitution with platinum is rising as a cost mitigant. Key risks include geopolitical tensions affecting Russian exports and potential slowdown in vehicle production, which could curb demand or exacerbate supply imbalances.
  • 2024 Palladium Market Outlook – Johnson Matthey
  • Sibanye-Stillwater Q1 2024 Production Update
  • Bloomberg: Palladium Price Pressured by Substitution Risks
  • World Platinum Investment Council April 2024 Market Report
  • S&P Global: Palladium Supply Constraints Amid Geopolitical Risks
  • Palladium's cost curve shows production is increasingly pressured by higher input and energy costs amid tight supply-demand dynamics. Elevated costs have shifted the marginal producer upwards, tightening the supply base as South African mines face operational challenges and rising inflation impacts Russian output. The tight market is supported by ongoing automotive demand for catalytic converters. Key risks include potential geopolitical disruptions to supply and fluctuations in demand driven by evolving emissions regulations and the shift to electric vehicles.
  • Johnson Matthey 2024 PGMs Market Outlook
  • Sibanye-Stillwater Q4 2023 Results and Cost Analysis
  • World Platinum Investment Council Q1 2024 Market Commentary
  • Reuters: Palladium Prices Rise on Supply Concerns and Cost Pressures
  • S&P Global: Palladium Mining Cost Trends and Market Outlook April 2024

    • Copper 5.98 (USd/lb.)

  • Copper prices have moderated recently after hitting multi-year highs driven by sustained demand from the electric vehicle sector and gradual easing of supply chain disruptions. Market sentiment is currently cautious amid concerns over a potential global economic slowdown and rising interest rates, which may dampen industrial demand. Additionally, upcoming supply expansions in key producing countries pose a risk of price stabilization or decline if demand growth weakens.
  • Copper Prices Retreat on Economic Growth Concerns
  • International Copper Study Group: Market Report May 2024
  • LME Copper Trends: Supply, Demand, and Price Outlook April 2024
  • Bloomberg: Copper Demand Faces Uncertainty Amid Rate Hikes
  • Copper supply-demand dynamics in early 2024 indicate tightening due to sustained strong demand from the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors, while supply growth remains constrained by operational disruptions and delayed mining projects. Inventory drawdowns at key exchanges underline underlying deficits. However, risks include potential economic slowdown in China, the largest copper consumer, which could soften demand and impact global balances. Longer-term uncertainty persists around new mine approvals and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains.
  • International Copper Study Group February 2024 Market Report
  • World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook April 2024: Base Metals
  • Copper Market Tightness Persists Amid Supply Constraints - S&P Global 2024
  • Reuters: Copper Market Outlook Faces Chinese Demand Uncertainty
  • Freeport-Mc — Mo — Ran Q1 2024 Production Report
  • The copper cost curve has been impacted by rising energy and labor costs, driving production expenses higher in early 2024, particularly in Chile and Peru, the largest producing countries. This has tightened supply-side margins amid robust demand from green energy and electric vehicle sectors. However, uncertainty remains from potential Chinese demand fluctuations and geopolitical risks affecting key mining operations, posing downside risks to cost structure stability and market balance.
  • Wood Mackenzie Q1 2024 Copper Cost Analysis
  • International Copper Study Group Quarterly Report April 2024
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Copper Market Costs and Outlook, Mar 2024
  • Chile Mining Association Cost Trends for Copper, March 2024
  • Reuters: Copper Cost Pressures Amid Demand Uncertainty, Apr 2024

    • 3Mo Aluminum 3,522.00 (USD/MT)

  • 3-month aluminum prices have recently experienced volatility due to a combination of easing supply constraints from Chinese producers and ongoing uncertainty in global demand, especially from the automotive and construction sectors. Market participants are closely watching Chinese policy on energy curbs and export quotas, which remain key drivers of potential price rebounds. Risks include renewed supply chain disruptions or tightening environmental regulations in major producing regions, which could tighten availability and push prices higher.
  • Aluminum prices fluctuate amid easing China supply pressures
  • LME 3-month Aluminium Price Chart and Market Analysis
  • China’s energy policies weigh on aluminum market outlook
  • Global aluminum market faces demand uncertainties in 2024
  • Over the past three months, aluminum supply has tightened modestly due to ongoing production curbs in key producing regions such as China and constrained output in energy-intensive refining areas. Meanwhile, demand has shown resilience, supported by recovering automotive and construction sectors amid cautious inventory restocking. The main downside risk remains energy cost volatility, which could pressure smelter economics and disrupt supply dynamic further, while geopolitical tensions and logistics constraints also pose ongoing uncertainties.
  • International Aluminium Institute Q1 2024 Supply-Demand Report
  • LME Aluminum Market Update April 2024
  • S&P Global Platts: Aluminum Production Cuts in China Tighten Global Supply
  • Reuters: Aluminum Prices Buoyed by Supply Concerns Despite Demand Caution
  • World Bank Commodities Price Forecast April 2024
  • The 3-month aluminum cost curve in mid-2024 has shown a moderate upward trend driven primarily by rising raw material and energy costs coupled with tightening supply amid reduced Chinese output. These dynamics have led to increased premiums over LME reference prices, reflecting elevated producer break-even costs. However, risks remain from potential demand shocks due to slower global manufacturing growth and policy-driven shifts toward recycling and alternative materials, which could weigh on prices and alter cost curve positioning.
  • LME Aluminum Market Report May 2024
  • Aluminum Costs Rise on Energy, Supply Limits - S&P Global Platts Apr 2024
  • International Aluminium Institute Q1 2024 Statistics
  • Aluminium Price and Cost Outlook - CRU Group April 2024
  • Bloomberg: Aluminum Supply Tightness Drives Cost Curve Shift May 2024

    • 3Mo Zinc 3,344.50 (USD/MT)

  • 3-month zinc prices have experienced volatility recently, driven by fluctuating demand from the construction and automotive sectors amid global economic uncertainties. Supply constraints persist due to disruptions in major producing regions and ongoing mine maintenance. Key downside risks include potential slowdown in China’s industrial output and increased recycling rates, which could temper zinc demand and pressure prices lower.
  • Zinc Prices and Market Analysis - International Lead and Zinc Study Group, April 2024
  • Recent Trends in Zinc Prices - London Metal Exchange, May 2024
  • Copper and Zinc Markets Face Uncertainties Amid Demand Slowdown - Reuters, May 2024
  • Base Metals Weekly Market Commentary - S&P Global Platts, April 2024
  • Over the past three months, zinc supply has been tightening primarily due to inventory withdrawals from key LME warehouses and production disruptions at major mines such as Glencore's Mt Isa. Demand remains steady, supported by ongoing industrial activity and inventory restocking by consumers. However, supply-side volatility persists given geopolitical tensions and potential strikes in mining regions, posing risk to near-term availability. Market participants are closely monitoring LME inventory trends and Chinese zinc consumption for further directional cues.
  • LME Zinc Inventory Trends and Market Impact - LME Weekly Report Apr 2024
  • Glencore Mt Isa Zinc Mine Update and Production Outlook
  • Zinc Market Fundamentals and Price Drivers - CRU Group April 2024
  • China Zinc Demand Outlook and Industrial Activity - Reuters, May 2024
  • Potential Strike Risks at Zinc Mines in Australia - Mining Weekly, March 2024
  • The 3-month zinc cost curve reflects a recent modest upward shift driven by rising energy and raw material prices impacting mining and processing costs. Elevated input costs have tightened margins, especially for higher-cost producers, constraining supply growth despite resilient demand. Key risks include ongoing volatility in electricity and fuel prices, potential supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions, and uncertain demand trajectories amid slow global economic growth.
  • CRU Zinc Cost Curves Update Q1 2024
  • LME Zinc Futures and Cost Curves Report, April 2024
  • Zinc Mining Costs Pressure Margins Amid Energy Inflation – S&P Global
  • World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook April 2024: Base Metals
  • Metal Bulletin: Zinc Cost Curve Shifts as Input Prices Surge

    • 3Mo Tin 49,423.00 (USD/MT)

  • 3-month tin prices have shown volatility in recent months, primarily driven by fluctuations in global demand from the electronics and soldering sectors alongside supply concerns from key producers due to mining disruptions. LME tin prices spiked briefly in early 2024 but moderated as inventories stabilized. Risks to the outlook include potential geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains and the pace of industrial demand recovery in Asia, which remains uncertain amid slowing manufacturing growth.
  • LME Tin Prices and Inventory Report March 2024
  • Tin Market Outlook Q1 2024 - International Tin Association
  • Tin Price Volatility Driven by Supply Disruptions - Reuters, March 2024
  • Over the past three months, global tin supply has faced tightening due to ongoing disruptions in major producing countries, notably Indonesia and Myanmar, driven by regulatory changes and logistical challenges. Demand remains robust, propelled mainly by electronics and solder sectors amid persistent technology manufacturing growth. However, supply constraints risk further price volatility given geopolitical uncertainties and potential export restrictions that could exacerbate shortages if unmitigated.
  • International Tin Association Q1 2024 Market Report
  • Indonesia’s Tin Export Policy Shifts Impact Market
  • Global Tin Demand Outlook Amid Electronics Industry Growth
  • Tin Production in Myanmar Faces Regulatory Hurdles
  • LME Tin Inventory Trends Q1 2024
  • Recent 3-month tin cost curve analyses indicate a moderate upward shift driven primarily by elevated inputs costs and supply constraints from key producers, notably in Southeast Asia. Smelter operating costs have increased due to higher energy prices and stricter environmental regulations, tightening supply margins. However, demand uncertainties linked to slower manufacturing growth and inventory adjustments pose a downside risk, potentially compressing premium spreads and impacting cost curve positioning going forward.
  • LME Tin Cost Curve Overview April 2024
  • International Tin Association Quarterly Market Report Q1 2024
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Tin Cost Trends Update May 2024
  • Metal Bulletin: Southeast Asia Tin Smelters Face Cost Pressures
  • Reuters: Tin Prices Under Pressure From Demand Uncertainty - April 2024

    • Nickel 19,365.00 (USD/MT)

  • Nickel prices have experienced volatile movements in recent months, driven primarily by fluctuating demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector and ongoing supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations in key producing countries like Indonesia and the Philippines. The recent easing of Chinese nickel inventories has also weighed on prices. Key risks include potential policy changes in major producing regions and shifts in global EV demand, which could significantly affect supply-demand balance and price stability.
  • LME Nickel Market Report April 2024
  • Nickel Prices Slide as Chinese Inventories Ease - Bloomberg, May 2024
  • Indonesia Nickel Export Policy Update - Reuters, March 2024
  • Impact of EV Demand on Nickel Markets - IEA, June 2024
  • Nickel supply remains tight in early 2024 as sustained demand from the stainless steel and EV battery sectors outpaces output growth. Production constraints are driven by geopolitical tensions affecting major exporters like Indonesia and the Philippines, and regulatory delays in new mining projects. Inventory drawdowns have increased price volatility, with potential risks including Indonesian export policy shifts and slower EV adoption impacting demand forecasts.
  • International Nickel Study Group Market Report Apr 2024
  • Indonesia’s Nickel Export Policy and Market Impact – S&P Global, March 2024
  • Nickel Prices Surge Amid EV Battery Demand, Bloomberg, April 2024
  • World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook April 2024
  • Glencore Q1 2024 Production Report Highlights Constrained Nickel Output
  • The nickel cost curve has seen upward pressure in 2024 driven primarily by escalating input costs, particularly energy and labor, amid supply tightening due to Indonesian export restrictions and reduced output from legacy mines. This dynamic has pushed higher-cost producers closer to the margin, intensifying supply risk and price volatility. However, uncertainties remain around demand trajectory from the EV battery sector, which could reshape cost competitiveness if slower adoption or substitution patterns emerge.
  • Wood Mackenzie Nickel Cost Curve Update 2024
  • LME Nickel Market Report April 2024
  • IMF Commodity Market Outlook April 2024 – Nickel Section
  • Reuters: Nickel Prices Strengthen on Indonesian Export Limits
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence: Cost Pressures Impacting Nickel Producers

    • Steel 605.00 (USD/MT)

  • Steel prices have shown recent volatility, driven primarily by fluctuating global demand and ongoing supply chain disruptions, especially from key producers like China and India. Elevated raw material costs and persistent energy price pressures continue to constrain profitability for steelmakers. The market faces uncertainty from potential demand slowdown due to tighter monetary policies globally and variable infrastructure spending commitments, which may cap price upside in the near term.
  • World Steel Association Short Range Outlook April 2024
  • Fastmarkets Steel Price Update April 2024
  • Bloomberg: Steel Rally Faces Risks From Global Demand Slowdown
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Steel Market Overview March 2024
  • Global steel supply-demand balance in early 2024 shows cautious recovery with demand supported by ongoing infrastructure and automotive production, while supply is constrained by environmental regulations and high input costs. Key drivers include slowing Chinese production cuts and resilient Western construction activity. Risks include potential volatility from fluctuating iron ore prices and geopolitical tensions impacting raw material supply chains, which could pressure cost and availability dynamics in coming months.
  • World Steel Association Short Range Outlook Apr 2024
  • Steel Market Monitor March 2024 – International Energy Agency
  • BHP Quarterly Report Q1 2024 – Steelmaking Raw Materials Update
  • Bloomberg: Steel Prices Rise Amid Supply Constraints and Robust Demand – March 2024
  • Reuters: Global Steel Production Faces Headwinds from China Policy Shifts – Feb 2024
  • The steel cost curve remains under pressure due to fluctuating raw material prices, notably iron ore and coking coal, influenced by supply constraints and geopolitical factors. Leading integrated producers maintain cost advantages through scale and feedstock integration, while smaller mills face margin compression. Recent shifts in global demand, particularly from China and Europe, have introduced uncertainty around capacity utilization and pricing power, posing risks to steelmakers' profitability amid potential Chinese stimulus or policy shifts affecting steel exports.
  • World Steel Association Monthly Statistics April 2024
  • Iron Ore Prices Impact Steel Cost Curves, S&P Global 2024 Report
  • Steelmaking Economics: Integrated vs. Mini Mills – CRU Analysis March 2024
  • Bloomberg: Steel Margins Squeeze Amid Raw Material Volatility April 2024
  • Reuters: China’s Steel Output and Impact on Global Cost Landscape April 2024

    • Corn 4.78 (USd/bu.)

  • Corn prices have recently edged higher, driven by tightening U.S. supply forecasts amid weather-related concerns affecting crop yields, particularly in key Midwestern states. Additionally, strong global demand for feed and ethanol production supports elevated prices. However, downside risks include potential easing of export restrictions from major competitors like Ukraine and Brazil, and the impact of monetary policy tightening which could weaken commodity demand overall.
  • USDA May Crop Report Tightens U.S. Corn Supply Outlook
  • Corn Prices Rise on Weather Risks and Export Demand
  • CBOT Corn Futures Daily Update
  • FAO Cereals Market Monitor - April 2024
  • Corn supply-demand dynamics have been tightening recently due to adverse weather conditions in major producing regions such as the U.S. Midwest, leading to lower yield prospects. Strong export demand, especially from China and Mexico, has further pressured inventories. Key risks include potential weather shifts altering crop outcomes and evolving global trade policies that could disrupt demand patterns, making supply projections volatile amid ongoing seasonal uncertainties.
  • USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - May 2024
  • Corn Crop Conditions Report - USDA NASS May 2024
  • Corn Exports Propel Prices Amid Supply Concerns - Reuters April 2024
  • Weather-induced Yield Cuts in Corn Growing Areas - Bloomberg May 2024
  • China's Corn Import Surge Adds Pressure on Global Supplies - Financial Times April 2024
  • Recent analyses of the corn cost curve indicate a moderate upward shift driven primarily by rising input costs, including fertilizer prices and energy expenses. Supply chain disruptions and adverse weather patterns have further tightened margins for lower-cost producers. A key uncertainty remains the potential for changes in U.S. farm policy and export demand from China, which could alter planting incentives and price dynamics, impacting the cost curve's shape through 2024.
  • USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Cost Analysis
  • Fertilizer Prices Push Up Corn Production Costs - CME Group
  • Crop Cost Curves Amid Weather Challenges – Farm Journal Insights
  • China's Corn Import Demand Shapes Global Cost Curves
  • USDA Economic Research Service: Corn Costs and Returns

    • Wheat 6.33 (USd/bu.)

  • Wheat prices have experienced moderate volatility recently due to fluctuating weather conditions in key producing regions like the US Plains and parts of Europe, affecting harvest expectations. Supply concerns prompted by ongoing geopolitical tensions—especially disruptions related to Black Sea exports—continue to underpin price support. However, rising global wheat inventories and generally favorable weather forecasts for major exporters pose a constraint on sharp price gains. Market participants remain cautious amid uncertain demand outlook amid inflationary pressures and potential policy shifts in major consuming countries.
  • USDA Wheat Price Outlook - June 2024
  • Black Sea Export Risks Keep Wheat Prices Firm
  • Weather Impacts Wheat Yield Expectations in US and Europe
  • FAO Cereal Price Index Declines Amid Mixed Wheat Signals
  • Global wheat supply has tightened in recent months primarily due to adverse weather conditions in major producing regions like the US and Russia, constraining yields. This reduction in output has pushed prices higher despite relatively stable demand. Key risks include ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting Black Sea exports and potential weather disruptions in the Northern Hemisphere's upcoming planting season, which could further exacerbate supply uncertainties.
  • USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates April 2024
  • International Grains Council Grain Market Report, April 2024
  • FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation – April 2024
  • Reuters: Wheat Prices Rise on Drought Concerns in US and Europe
  • Bloomberg: Black Sea Wheat Export Risks Persist Amid Russia-Ukraine Conflict
  • Wheat cost curves for 2024 reflect tighter production economics amid variable input costs and climatic stress in major growing regions. Rising fertilizer and fuel prices have elevated break-even costs, shifting many producers upward on the cost curve. Weather disruptions in North America and Europe constrain supply, reinforcing the position of lower-cost exporters like Russia and Ukraine. Key risks include potential demand shifts from geopolitical tensions and further input cost volatility, which could compress margins or alter global trade flows.
  • USDA Wheat Outlook April 2024
  • FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, March 2024
  • Reuters: Global Wheat Cost Curves Shift Amid Rising Input Prices
  • Rabobank Grain Market Outlook Q1 2024
  • International Grains Council Grain Market Report No. 479 – April 2024

    • Oats 2.95 (USd/bu.)

  • Oats prices have generally remained stable with slight upward pressure driven by concerns over lower-than-expected yields in key growing regions due to dry weather conditions. Market participants are monitoring US and Canadian crop reports closely, given these countries' significant global oat exports. A key uncertainty remains the demand trajectory, especially from the feed grain sector, which could soften if livestock producers shift feed mixes. Limited recent volatility reflects balanced supply-demand expectations amid cautious weather outlooks.
  • USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - May 2024
  • Oats Outlook - USDA Agricultural Marketing Service May 2024
  • Dry Weather Worries Impacting US Oat Crops - Reuters Apr 2024
  • Grain Market Report: Oats Price Trends - CME Group May 2024
  • Oats supply-demand dynamics in 2024 show tightening availability due to lower planted acreage in major producing regions driven by increased competition from other crops and challenging weather conditions in Canada and the US. Demand remains stable, supported by steady feed use and moderate growth in human consumption for health-conscious markets. A key risk is weather volatility continuing to impair yields, alongside potential policy shifts in crop subsidies affecting planting decisions.
  • USDA April 2024 Oats Outlook Report
  • Agriculture Canada March 2024 Supply and Demand Estimates
  • Oats Prices Rise on Tight US Supply, Reuters, May 2024
  • US Cattle Feed Demand Supports Oats Usage, Agri-Pulse, April 2024
  • Recent analysis of the oats cost curve shows upward pressure driven by rising input costs, especially fertilizer and energy, which have increased production expenses for top-growing regions in North America and Europe. Weather variability, including drought risks in key oat-producing areas, adds uncertainty to supply and cost structures. Limited recent specialized studies suggest tightening market conditions but a lack of detailed updated cost curve models poses uncertainty for precise futures pricing.
  • USDA Oats Annual Report 2024
  • Ag — Rural Fertilizer Costs Report April 2024
  • Chicago Board of Trade Oats Futures Overview
  • European Commission Agricultural Market Report May 2024
  • Reuters: Rising Energy Costs Pressure Grain Production

    • Rough Rice 11.16 (USD/cwt)

  • Rough rice prices have shown moderate volatility in recent months, largely driven by weather conditions affecting crop yields in key producing regions and fluctuating export demand from major buyers like Mexico and the Middle East. Supply disruptions due to unpredictable monsoon patterns and logistic constraints remain key downside risks. Meanwhile, ongoing concerns over inflation and currency fluctuations in Asian producing countries continue to add uncertainty to price trajectories.
  • USDA Rice Outlook Report May 2024
  • CME Group Rough Rice Futures Recent Prices
  • Rice Exporters Face Weather-Related Supply Risks – Bloomberg
  • FAO Food Price Index and Grain Market Updates April 2024
  • Recent USDA reports indicate a slight tightening in the 2023-24 U.S. rough rice supply as production forecasts were lowered due to adverse weather impacts in key growing regions. Domestic and export demand remain stable but sensitive to potential weather disruptions or trade policy changes. A critical risk remains the evolving South Asian monsoon pattern, which may affect global rice supply and consequently U.S. export competitiveness amid shifting export dynamics in Asia.
  • USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports May 2024
  • USDA Weekly Rice Stocks Highlights April 2024
  • USDA Grain and Oilseed Outlook April 2024
  • Reuters: Global Rice Market Faces Uncertainty from Weather and Trade in 2024
  • Bloomberg: U.S. Rough Rice Exports Holding Despite Global Supply Volatility
  • The rough rice cost curve, reflecting production expenses ranked by unit cost, shows recent upward pressure driven by rising input costs such as fertilizer and fuel amid tightening agricultural supply chains. This has compressed margins for higher-cost producers while benefiting cost-leader farmers. However, weather variability and potential trade policy changes introduce uncertainty, potentially affecting planting decisions and global supply balances going forward. Current market data on cost curves remain limited in public sources, posing a challenge to definitive analysis.
  • USDA Rice Outlook Report May 2024
  • Cost of Production Estimates for U.S. Rice, 2023 – University of Arkansas
  • ICE Futures U.S. Rough Rice Futures Overview – CME Group
  • Reuters: Fertilizer Costs Pressuring U.S. Rice Growers April 2024
  • FAO Rice Market Monitor – April 2024

    • Soybean 10.24 (USd/bu.)

  • Soybean prices have trended lower in recent months due to improving weather conditions in key producing areas like Brazil and the US, easing concerns over crop yields. Additionally, slowing Chinese demand amid broader economic uncertainties has dampened buying interest. However, risks remain from potential geopolitical tensions affecting trade flows and variable South American planting progress, which could tighten supply unexpectedly.
  • USDA June Crop Production Report
  • Brazilian Soybean Planting Progress - CONAB Report June 2024
  • Soybean Prices Retreat on Demand Slowdown, Weather Improvements - Reuters June 2024
  • China's Import Demand for Soybeans Slows Amid Economic Headwinds - Bloomberg June 2024
  • Soybean supply-demand dynamics in 2024 are marked by tightening US and Brazilian exports due to slower crop progress and weather concerns, restricting global availability. Demand remains firm, especially from China, supporting higher prices. However, downside risks include potential shifts in Chinese import policies and uncertain South American weather impacting next season’s crop. Market participants are closely monitoring South American planting and US export pace as key supply signals.
  • USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - Apr 2024
  • Brazil Soybean Planting Progress and Weather Outlook - CONAB Apr 2024
  • China’s Soybean Imports Slow with New Trade Policies - Reuters Apr 2024
  • IBGE Crop Forecasts and Impact on Soybean Exports - Brazil, Mar 2024
  • CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Soybean Futures Positioning, Apr 2024
  • Recent soybean cost curve analysis shows upward pressure on production breakeven prices due to rising input costs, notably fertilizer and energy expenses, driven by supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions. This rise impacts global exporters differently, with higher-cost producers at risk of market exit. Key uncertainties include weather variability in major growing regions and potential shifts in Chinese demand patterns, which could alter global supply-demand balances and affect prices further.
  • USDA Crop Production: Soybean Costs and Returns 2023
  • IGC Grains and Oilseeds Report - April 2024
  • Rabobank Quarterly Agricultural Outlook: Soybean Cost Pressures
  • Bloomberg: Rising Fertilizer Costs Push Soybean Margins Lower
  • CME Group: Soybean Cost of Production Trends 2024

    • Canola 750.30 (CAD/MT)

  • Canola prices have recently experienced moderate volatility driven by tightening global supply due to lower crop yields in key producing regions like Canada and adverse weather in Europe. Demand remains supported by strong biofuel use and edible oil consumption, although elevated input costs and geopolitical uncertainties, including trade tensions and export restrictions, pose risks to price stability in the near term.
  • Statistics Canada: April 2024 Canola Production Report
  • Canola Council of Canada Market Overview April 2024
  • Reuters: Canola Prices Edge Up on Crop Concerns - April 2024
  • USDA Oilseeds Outlook April 2024
  • Global canola supply is under pressure due to weather-related yield declines in key growing regions including Canada and the EU, driving tighter stocks and upward price pressure. Demand remains steady, supported by strong biofuel mandates and rising edible oil consumption, though the pace of demand growth could be constrained by higher vegetable oil prices impacting feedstock cost competitiveness. Market risk includes weather volatility in the Northern Hemisphere and geopolitical disruptions affecting export flows, which could exacerbate supply tightness or cause price volatility.
  • USDA Oilseeds Outlook June 2024
  • Canola Market Update – Canadian Grain Commission May 2024
  • Oilseeds Forward Outlook by International Grains Council, April 2024
  • Reuters: Canola Prices Rise on Tightening Global Supplies, June 2024
  • Bloomberg: Weather Pressures Canola Output as Demand Holds Through 2024
  • The global canola cost curve remains under pressure due to rising input costs such as fertilizers and energy, which have increased growers' breakeven prices in the 2024 season. Additionally, supply chain constraints and adverse weather conditions in key producing regions have tightened production, pushing the mid to high-cost producers closer to the margin. A key risk is volatile commodity prices exacerbated by geopolitical tensions affecting export routes, which could further squeeze margins and reshape the cost curve dynamics.
  • Canola Market and Cost Conditions – USDA Report May 2024
  • Global Canola Supply Tightness Raises Production Costs – Agriculture.com Jun 2024
  • Energy Price Spike Boosts Canola Production Costs – Bloomberg, May 2024
  • Impact of Weather and Trade Disruptions on Canola Cost Curve – Rabobank Insights May 2024
  • Canola Price Volatility and Cost Structure – CME Group Report June 2024

    • Cocoa 3,596.00 (USD/MT)

  • Cocoa prices have experienced upward pressure recently, driven primarily by supply concerns from West African producers amid adverse weather and logistical challenges. Additionally, rising demand from major chocolate manufacturers supports the price strength. However, significant risks remain tied to potential easing of export restrictions in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which could increase supply and weigh on prices. Currency fluctuations and broader macroeconomic uncertainties also underscore volatility risks in the cocoa market.
  • Cocoa Prices Rise on Supply Concerns in West Africa
  • ICCO Quarterly Bulletin: Cocoa Market Outlook – Q1 2024
  • Côte d’Ivoire Considers Export Policies as Cocoa Prices Surge
  • Chocolate Makers Brace for Cocoa Price Volatility Amid Currency Swings
  • Cocoa supply remains tight in 2024 due to weather-related disruptions in West Africa, primarily Ivory Coast and Ghana, which produce over 60% of global output. Demand is stable but sensitive to global economic growth and consumer trends in key markets like Europe and the US. A critical risk is the potential for further climate-related impacts and pests, which could exacerbate production deficits and heighten volatility in prices amid ongoing supply chain constraints.
  • ICCQ Quarterly Report April 2024
  • Cocoa Market Outlook - International Cocoa Organization March 2024
  • Weather and Cocoa Production Risks in West Africa - Bloomberg, May 2024
  • Rabobank Cocoa Supply-Demand Dynamics Review, April 2024
  • Cocoa Prices Stable Despite Supply Concerns - Reuters, March 2024
  • The cocoa cost curve has shifted modestly higher in early 2024 due to increased input costs, including fertilizer and labor shortages in West Africa, which remains the dominant producing region. These cost pressures have compressed margins for smallholder farmers, potentially curbing near-term supply growth. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and adverse weather in key origins introduce supply uncertainties, elevating risks for supply tightening. Market participants should watch for changes in production incentives and potential volatility driven by weather and policy interventions.
  • ICCO Quarterly Report on Cocoa Market, Q1 2024
  • World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2024
  • Update on Cocoa Supply and Costs from Olam International, Q1 2024
  • Charting Cocoa Producers' Cost Curves, S&P Global Commodity Insights, May 2024
  • Cocoa Prices and Cost Pressures Amid West African Weather Risks, Bloomberg, April 2024

    • Coffee 2.86 (USd/lb.)

  • Coffee prices have recently experienced volatility driven primarily by concerns over weather disruptions in key producing countries, notably Brazil and Vietnam, impacting supply expectations. Additionally, global demand trends amid economic uncertainty and rising input costs have contributed to price fluctuations. A notable risk remains the potential for adverse climate events and policy shifts affecting export logistics, which could further tighten supply and exacerbate price swings.
  • Coffee Prices Navigate Weather Worries in Brazil
  • International Coffee Organization Monthly Coffee Market Report, May 2024
  • Coffee Futures See Mixed Pressure on Supply Concerns, Demand Outlook
  • USDA Outlook: Coffee Production and Export Forecast, April 2024
  • Global coffee supply is tightening due to adverse weather conditions in key producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, constraining output growth. Demand remains resilient, buoyed by recovering consumption in major markets and steady specialty coffee demand. Price volatility persists amid logistical challenges and uncertain crop forecasts, with climate risk and geopolitical tensions posing potential supply disruptions that could exacerbate scarcity or inflation in coffee markets.
  • ICO Coffee Market Report May 2024
  • USDA April 2024 Coffee Outlook
  • Bloomberg: Coffee Prices Surge on Brazil Drought Concerns - April 2024
  • Reuters: Global Coffee Supply Tightens as Demand Holds Firm - March 2024
  • International Coffee Organization: Weather Risks Threaten Crop Prospects
  • The coffee cost curve reflects input and production cost variations across global coffee producers, with recent upward pressure driven mainly by elevated fertilizer prices and adverse weather conditions in key regions such as Brazil and Vietnam. These factors have squeezed lower-cost producers’ margins, potentially reducing supply from marginal growers. However, risks remain around possible weather improvements and shifts in currency fluctuations that could alter cost dynamics rapidly, making the cost curve sensitive to macroeconomic and climatic variables.
  • USDA Coffee Production Cost Insights - June 2024
  • International Coffee Organization Monthly Market Report - May 2024
  • Rabobank Coffee Cost Curve Commentary - April 2024
  • Bloomberg: Coffee Producers Face Rising Input Costs Amid Weather Risks - May 2024
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Coffee Supply and Production Cost Dynamics - June 2024

    • Sugar 0.15 (USd/lb.)

  • Sugar prices have seen moderate volatility recently due to fluctuating weather patterns impacting key producing regions such as Brazil and India. Strong exports from Brazil have exerted downward pressure, while concerns over lower planting intentions in India supported prices earlier in the quarter. Additionally, emerging inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations pose risks to global sugar trade dynamics, potentially constraining price stability in the near term. Market participants remain watchful of crop reports and policy changes in major economies.
  • USDA Sugar Price Outlook - June 2024
  • Brazil Sugar Exports Influence Global Market - Reuters June 2024
  • India's Planting Forecast Shifts Sugar Price Dynamics - Bloomberg June 2024
  • Impact of Inflation and FX on Sugar Trade - International Sugar Organization Report June 2024
  • Global sugar supply-demand balance tightened in early 2024 due to adverse weather in top producers like Brazil and India, reducing output forecasts. This has supported prices amid steady consumption growth, driven by emerging markets. However, risks include potential policy shifts on export tariffs and currency volatility impacting trade flows. Monitoring crop reports and geopolitical developments remains essential for near-term market outlook.
  • USDA Sugar 2023/24 Supply-Demand Estimates
  • International Sugar Organization: January 2024 Market Report
  • Brazil Harvest Delays Cut 2023/24 Sugar Output Outlook - Reuters
  • India Sugar Production Faces Weather Headwinds - Bloomberg
  • Sugar Prices Gain as Supply Concerns Mount - Financial Times
  • The sugar cost curve is currently under upward pressure driven primarily by tightening global supply due to adverse weather impacts in key producing countries like Brazil and India, coupled with rising input costs such as energy and fertilizers. These factors have shifted marginal production costs higher, tightening the low-cost supply base. A key risk remains policy-driven export restrictions from major producers, which could further disrupt supply-demand balance and exacerbate price volatility.
  • FAO Sugar Market Review - April 2024
  • Sugar Price Pressure from Costlier Production, Rabobank, March 2024
  • ICE Sugar Futures and Cost Curve Analysis, April 2024
  • Reuters: Brazil Drought Raises Marginal Sugar Costs, April 2024
  • USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, April 2024

    • Orange Juice 1.89 (USd/lb.)

  • Orange juice prices have recently firmed due to supply pressures stemming from adverse weather impacts in key Brazilian growing regions and ongoing logistic constraints. Brazil’s lower-than-expected orange harvest combined with rising production costs have tightened global supply, supporting prices near multi-year highs. However, demand uncertainty remains amid inflationary pressures on consumers and potential shifts in beverage preferences, posing a risk to sustained price strength.
  • USDA Crop Progress Report on Orange Harvest
  • Brazil's Citrus Production Outlook Q1 2024
  • Orange Juice Futures Respond to Supply Constraints
  • Bloomberg: Inflation Pressures Weigh on Commodity Demand
  • Orange juice supply has tightened in early 2024 due to adverse weather conditions in Brazil, the world's largest producer, notably frost damage impacting crop yields. Demand remains steady to slightly higher amid ongoing inflation-driven consumer caution, keeping price volatility elevated. Key uncertainties include potential further weather disruptions during the main harvest and currency fluctuations affecting export competitiveness, which could constrain supply outlook and global pricing dynamics.
  • USDA 2024 Citrus Crop Report
  • Brazil's Frost Hits Orange Production Outlook
  • Orange Juice Futures Point to Volatility Amid Supply Concerns
  • Citrus Growers Warn of Production Risks in Brazil
  • Weather-Driven Price Moves in Orange Juice Markets
  • Orange juice cost curves have recently shifted upward due to adverse weather impacting key producing regions like Brazil and Florida, leading to tighter supply and higher raw material costs. Currency fluctuations, particularly BRL weakness against the USD, compounded price pressures on input costs. Ongoing uncertainties include climate volatility affecting crop yields and potential logistical disruptions, which could exacerbate supply constraints and cost inflation in the near term.
  • USDA Citrus Reports Highlight Brazil Frost Impact
  • Brazil Currency Fluctuations Pressure Orange Juice Costs
  • Florida Citrus Production Faces Continued Weather Risks
  • Orange Juice Futures Reflect Supply Tightness

    • Cotton 0.84 (USd/lb.)

  • Cotton prices have experienced moderate volatility recently, driven primarily by fluctuating global demand and supply chain constraints amid variable weather patterns in key producing regions like the US and India. Strong export demand from China supports price levels, but uncertainties such as potential changes in US crop yields and evolving trade policies pose risks. Market watchers remain cautious given the interplay of macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions influencing commodity flows.
  • USDA Monthly Cotton Outlook Report May 2024
  • Cotton Prices Rally on China Demand, Weather Risks - Reuters Apr 2024
  • ICAC Cotton Market Review April 2024
  • Bloomberg Commodity Outlook: Cotton Outlook Q2 2024
  • Recent cotton supply-demand dynamics indicate tightening global supplies driven by reduced plantings in key producing countries, notably the US and India, amidst logistic constraints and input cost inflation. Demand remains steady with resilient textile industry buying but is sensitive to rising garment sector costs and potential consumer demand softness. A key uncertainty is how macroeconomic pressures and currency volatility in major consuming countries will influence import levels and global price stability in the near term.
  • USDA Cotton Outlook Report May 2024
  • ICAC Cotton Supply and Use Estimates - April 2024
  • Cotton Price Trends and Forecast Q2 2024 - Bloomberg
  • India Cotton Production Drop Raises Global Supply Concerns - Reuters
  • China Cotton Imports Slowed on Yuan Weakness - S&P Global
  • The cotton cost curve in early 2024 shows rising production costs primarily driven by higher input prices such as fertilizers and labor shortages. These increased costs are pressuring marginal producers and are likely elevating the global price floor. Key risks include potential volatility in energy prices, which could disproportionately affect energy-intensive cotton farming regions, and uncertainties in government subsidy policies that might alter cost structures.
  • Cotton Production Costs Rise amid Input Price Inflation
  • USDA Cotton and Wool Yearbook 2023-24
  • Rabobank 2024 Cotton Cost Curve Outlook
  • Bloomberg: Cotton Prices Supported By Rising Global Cost Curve
  • International Cotton Advisory Committee March 2024 Report

    • Lumber 0.00 (USD/1000 board feet)

  • Lumber prices have trended downward in recent months, driven primarily by slowing housing starts and increased supply from resumed mill production after pandemic disruptions. Despite moderate improvement in construction activity, demand remains subdued due to rising mortgage rates restraining homebuyer affordability. A key uncertainty is the potential impact of ongoing inflationary pressures on production costs, which could support prices if raw material expenses rise, though housing market weakness currently exerts downward pressure.
  • Lumber Prices Decline on Housing Slowdown
  • US Lumber Production Trends and Market Outlook, USDA Report
  • Housing Starts Fall, Pressuring Lumber Demand - NAHB
  • Lumber Market Update: Inflation and Supply Chain Factors
  • Lumber supply-demand dynamics in mid-2024 show signs of stabilization after a sharp correction from highs in 2021-2022. Supply constraints caused by past production curtailments persist, but rising interest rates have dampened housing demand, reducing pressure on lumber prices. Key risks include potential supply chain disruptions from weather events and geopolitical trade tensions that could tighten supply unexpectedly, as well as uncertain housing market recovery amid macroeconomic headwinds.
  • USDA Wood Products Market Outlook May 2024
  • Lumber Prices and Supply Trends – CME Group Analysis June 2024
  • National Association of Home Builders: Lumber Market Impact Report Q2 2024
  • Reuters: Lumber Prices Fall Amid US Housing Slowdown – April 2024
  • Forest Economic Advisors: Lumber Supply Constraints Update, May 2024
  • Lumber costs have moderated from their 2021-22 peaks due to easing pandemic-driven supply constraints and slowing housing demand amid rising interest rates. Recent production increases in North America and improved logistics have flattened the cost curve, though ongoing wildfire risks and inflationary pressures on raw materials could drive episodic volatility. The primary uncertainty remains around U.S. housing market trajectory, which could sharply alter lumber demand and pricing dynamics in the coming quarters.
  • NAHB Lumber Price Update April 2024
  • USDA Forest Service Timber Market Reports Q1 2024
  • Lumber Prices and Supply Factors Ahead of 2024 Construction Season - Bloomberg
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: North American Lumber Market Dynamics April 2024
  • Federal Reserve Beige Book March 2024: Lumber and Building Materials Pricing

    • Ethanol 2.16 (USD/gal.)

  • Ethanol prices have recently experienced upward pressure driven primarily by tightening corn supplies and sustained demand for biofuels amid elevated crude oil prices. Seasonal maintenance and regulatory factors, such as Renewable Fuel Standard policy expectations, also influenced market sentiment. However, crop yield uncertainties and potential shifts in US ethanol export dynamics pose risks that could soften prices depending on the coming growing season outcomes and international trade developments.
  • USDA Crop Report Highlights Tight Corn Supply
  • EIA Monthly Energy Review: Ethanol Price Trends
  • Reuters: Ethanol Prices Gain Amid Corn Supply Concerns
  • Bloomberg: Biofuel Demand and Regulatory Impact on Ethanol Prices
  • Ethanol supply has recently tightened driven by increased corn prices and lower-than-expected production due to plant maintenance and weather disruptions in key US producing regions. On the demand side, ethanol consumption is supported by rising gasoline usage amid improved economic activity, though increased regulatory scrutiny and potential mandates for blending limits introduce uncertainty. Inventory levels remain tight, posing upside risk to ethanol prices if demand rebounds more strongly or supply disruptions persist.
  • USDA March Feed Grains Report on Corn and Ethanol Supply
  • EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report - Ethanol Inventories
  • RFA Fuel Ethanol Outlook Report Q1 2024
  • Reuters: US Ethanol Production Faces Headwinds from Corn Costs
  • Bloomberg: Ethanol Demand Growth Stalls Amid Regulatory Pressure
  • Recent shifts in the ethanol cost curve reflect escalating corn prices and supply chain disruptions, elevating production costs across key U.S. and Brazilian markets. This pressure tightens margins for ethanol producers amid fluctuating fuel demand post-COVID recovery and heightened regulatory attention on biofuel blending mandates. A principal uncertainty lies in volatile grain markets, which could either exacerbate cost pressures or improve profitability if prices moderate, while policy changes on renewable fuel standards remain a crucial constraint.
  • USDA Report Highlights Rising Ethanol Production Costs
  • IEA Bioenergy: Ethanol Cost Curves and Market Trends Q1 2024
  • EIA Monthly Energy Review: Ethanol Production and Prices March 2024
  • Bloomberg: Corn Prices Push Up Ethanol Production Costs
  • Reuters: Biofuel Mandates and Ethanol Cost Dynamics in 2024

    • Live Cattle 2.53 (USd/lb.)

  • Live cattle prices have shown moderate gains recently, driven primarily by tightening domestic supplies amid drought conditions in key U.S. cattle-producing regions. Increased feed costs and slower herd rebuilding constrain significant price rallies, while demand remains supported by steady beef consumption. Key risks include potential resolution of drought easing supply concerns and volatility in feed grain markets that could pressure production costs and futures prices.
  • USDA Cattle on Feed Report June 2024
  • Live Cattle Futures Edge Higher on Supply Tightness - CME Group June 2024
  • Drought Limits U.S. Cattle Herd Recovery, Supporting Prices - Reuters May 2024
  • Beef Demand Remains Firm Despite Costs - Bloomberg June 2024
  • Live cattle supplies remain relatively tight due to slower herd rebuilding and limited feedlot placements amid higher feeder cattle prices. Demand has shown resilience with strong domestic beef consumption and improving export markets, particularly to Asia. However, potential feed cost volatility and geopolitical risks in key export regions pose uncertainties that could constrain supply responsiveness and dampen demand growth in coming months.
  • USDA Cattle on Feed Report - April 2024
  • USDA Quarterly Cattle Inventory Report March 2024
  • Beef Demand Strong Despite Tight Supplies - CME Group Insights April 2024
  • FAS Livestock and Poultry Update March 2024
  • Reuters: U.S. beef exports resilient amid supply pressures April 2024
  • Recent analysis of the live cattle cost curve highlights rising feed costs and labor expenses as key upward pressure factors, pushing marginal production costs higher across major US cattle operations. This tightening reflects input cost inflation and ongoing supply chain constraints, challenging profitability for lower-efficiency producers. However, volatile feed grain markets and unpredictable weather remain significant uncertainties influencing cost dynamics and potentially reshaping producer behavior in the near term.
  • USDA Economic Research Service: Live Cattle Production Costs Outlook
  • CME Group Live Cattle Futures Cost of Production Analysis
  • Rabobank: Rising Input Costs Pressure US Live Cattle Margins, March 2024
  • Reuters: US Cattle Producers Face Profit Squeeze Amid Feed Price Volatility
  • Farm Journal’s Ag — Web: Live Cattle Cost Curve Shifts Amid Supply Chain Challenges

    • Feeder Cattle 3.72 (USd/lb.)

  • Feeder cattle prices have faced moderate pressure in early 2024 due to a combination of seasonally slower demand and elevated feed costs, which increase production expenses. Strong export demand and herd rebuilding efforts have provided some price support, but potential risks include feed price volatility and slower-than-expected beef demand growth. Additionally, fluctuating weather conditions pose uncertainty for grazing conditions, impacting supply dynamics.
  • USDA Feeder Cattle Market Outlook Mar 2024
  • Feeder Cattle Prices Decline Amid Rising Feed Costs - CME Group
  • Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle Prices and Futures Update - CME Group April 2024
  • Beef Market Liveries and Price Dynamics Amid USDA Forecasts - Reuters 2024
  • Feeder cattle supply has tightened recently due to lower cattle slaughter rates and drought-reduced pasture conditions limiting natural grazing. Demand remains strong amid continued recovery in beef processing throughput and robust domestic consumption, supporting feeder cattle prices. However, input cost inflation, especially feed prices and weather variability, poses downside risks to supply normalization and future feeder cattle placements. Limited recent comprehensive data constrains full outlook clarity but near-term fundamentals favor firm feeder cattle market dynamics.
  • USDA Cattle on Feed Report - Apr 2024
  • April 2024 USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
  • Feeder Cattle Futures Analysis - CME Group April 2024
  • Beef Processing and Cattle Market Update - Livestock Marketing Information Center Apr 2024
  • Reuters: US Feeder Cattle Prices Supported by Strong Demand Amid Drought
  • Recent feeder cattle cost curve analyses indicate rising break-even prices driven primarily by elevated feed grain costs and tight supply dynamics due to weather impacts on pasture availability. As feed expenses make up a substantial portion of total costs, volatility in corn and soybean meal prices remains a key uncertainty. Additionally, evolving export demand and input cost inflation pose risks to margin stability for feeder cattle producers in the near term.
  • USDA Feedlot Cost Reports May 2024
  • CME Group Feeder Cattle Futures Insight April 2024
  • Rabobank: Livestock and Feed Cost Analysis Q2 2024
  • USDA Economic Research Service: Feed Cost Pressures
  • Reuters: Corn Prices and Impact on Cattle Feeding April 2024

    • Lean Hogs 1.01 (USd/lb.)

  • Lean hog prices have recently trended higher due to strong domestic pork demand and supply tightening amid ongoing pork production adjustments related to feed costs. Live hog futures have responded to USDA reports indicating lower hog slaughter volumes, supporting bullish momentum. However, elevated grain prices and potential export market volatility remain key risks that could constrain further price gains amid uncertain global trade conditions.
  • USDA Hog Market Summary - June 2024
  • CME Lean Hogs Futures Pricing and Analysis
  • Pork Demand Supports Hog Prices Amid Feed Cost Concerns - Reuters June 2024
  • USDA WASDE Report Highlights Pork Production Adjustments - May 2024
  • Lean hog futures have faced downward pressure recently due to rising pork supplies driven by strong sow herd expansions and improved feed availability. Domestic slaughter rates remain robust, which is increasing short-term pork availability. However, the market remains sensitive to export demand fluctuations, particularly from China amid its economic reopening uncertainties and ASF (African Swine Fever) outbreak risks, representing a key downside risk to demand recovery.
  • USDA September Hogs and Pigs Report 2023
  • CME Group Lean Hogs Market Commentary - October 2023
  • USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, October 2023
  • FAO Food Price Index and Meat Market Outlook, Sep 2023
  • Reuters: China Pork Imports Outlook Mixed on ASF Uncertainty - Oct 2023
  • The lean hogs cost curve recently reflects rising production costs driven primarily by higher feed prices and labor shortages, tightening profit margins for hog producers. This upward cost pressure has reduced the price competitiveness of smaller producers, potentially consolidating industry structure. Key risk remains volatile feed commodity markets, which could abruptly shift cost dynamics and price signals, influencing slaughter volumes and export competitiveness amid ongoing global demand uncertainty.
  • USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report Apr 2024
  • CME Group Lean Hog Futures Market Commentary May 2024
  • Rabobank Pork Sector Outlook Q2 2024
  • Bloomberg: Feed Costs Push Hog Production Margins Lower
  • USDA Economic Research Service: Feed Grain Market Outlook

    • Best Commodities 1yr

    Tickernameunitsytd1month6months1yrRank
    JI1 ComdtySilver (Tokyo)JPY/g0.0010.5970.40158.5079.83
    XAGJPY CurncySilver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.-2.101.6759.01157.6172.76
    XAGUSD CurncySilver SpotUSD/t oz.1.583.5556.38146.3968.77
    SI1 ComdtySilver (Comex)USD/t oz.2.634.1458.94144.5969.22
    XAGGBP CurncySilver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.0.260.8351.31129.1960.44

    Worst Commodities 1yr

    Tickernameunitsytd1month6months1yrRank
    JO1 ComdtyOrange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-12.14-5.824.88-62.93-21.29
    CC1 ComdtyCocoa (ICE)USD/MT-41.4711.50-39.40-61.75-29.88
    SB1 ComdtySugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.-0.13-0.275.80-29.05-7.84
    RR1 ComdtyRough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt7.510.458.24-26.87-6.06
    NG1 ComdtyNatural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu-18.161.07-26.23-11.53-12.23