Report: ML Strategy


Broad sector buy intact based

Economies going back to normal

Some sectors missed a quarter of earnings

Missed earnings imply either shrinking equity or larger debt depending on fixed costs

In either way missed earnings imply higher debt to equity ratio

Missed earning in some cases imply dilution of current shareholders

Because debt is cheaper for companies in the current environment this means a lower WACC

Lower WACC could imply higher valuation for companies which managed not to increase their net debt

This supports a broad sector buy, buybacks and larger dividends for existing key shareholder to reinvest

On the negative side demand is weaker

Revenues are likely to be lower in the second half of 2020

Incomes lower

Multiples higher across the markets

Higher Debt EBITDA ratio

Covenants under pressure

Deleveraging

Cost cuts

Lower capex

and on balance probably lower cashflows
