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Key Info

United Wagon Co PJSC Web - www.uniwagon.com

Tel - 7-499-999-15-20

United Wagon Company 2017 Results (UWGN RM)

Share price Rub (UWGN RM)

Results were taken positively by the market

Consolidated Numbers

2017 Revenue grew to 62bn rub +27% Headline EBITDA declined by 7% but EBITDA less government support was up 14%. Net income was small negative.

Valuations metrics remain large with current debt load

Large EV/EBITDA numbers are explained by nature of the business half of which is essentially has financial leasing business model rather than industrial business model

Production growth of railcars is strong

Company has targeted c. 30% market share.

OVK has been able to post additional 20% rise in railcar production in 2017 increasing the total to 19100

Growth rates are not as steep as in the past but the base is much higher as well

Revenues from railcar sales in 2017 are close to 1bn$ and average unit railcar prices adjust nicely to post devaluation ruble rates

Theoretically revenue growth could decelerate in upcoming year but the chart doesn’t show it

EBITDA margin in production rerated last year

And is likely to remain strong as the business grows more vertically integrated

Revenues from leasing add additional 10% to total

And this is despite overall smaller fleet numbers

However despite smaller share of leasing revenues in total, EBITDA from leasing is roughly half of EBITDA from production

Theoretically OVK could sell its park of railcars reducing overall debt load, but its EBITDA will be halved

And this is due to very healthy EBITDA margin in leasing

OVK will have to find substitutes for leasing EBITDA if it decides To restructure business

Capex has been on decline

DEBT/EBITDA is down to levels of 8x

But high debt to EBITDA multiples do not imply financial susceptibility of the company. It could be compared to operating income to liabilities of the financial institution and yields 12% return on liabilities for OVK vs. only e.g. 2.8% for Sberbank. Even if EBITDA of OVK is accounted for interest expense which is roughly 8% of Net Debt, EBTDA/Net Debt comes to 4.2% and this is still higher number than for Sberbank

Select Equity Data Snapshot


Historic and Consesus Forecast numbers from Bloomberg USD mn




United Wagon Co PJSC, , Capital Goods





Fundamentals

Year2013201420152016201720182019
Revenue96.48451.74608.07728.021,122.891,183.111,252.18
Year2013201420152016201720182019
Operating Profit15.2911.9627.24120.61
Year2013201420152016201720182019
PTP-162.79-22.24-166.76-37.2114.1738.97113.35
Year2013201420152016201720182019
Net Income6.1911.6930.8290.15
Year2013201420152016201720182019
EPS0.06
Year2013201420152016201720182019
EBITDA44.0894.59115.03206.58324.12359.54398.50
Year2013201420152016201720182019
BPS10,516.2012,905.310.192.36
Year2013201420152016201720182019
Capex-336.41-412.74-67.52-89.38-61.99-53.13-35.42
Year2013201420152016201720182019
FCF-398.92-606.34-85.7260.71




Growth

Year201420152016201720182019
revenue Growth368.2%34.6%19.7%54.2%5.4%5.8%
Year201420152016201720182019
Operating Profit Growth-21.8%127.7%342.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Year201420152016201720182019
PTP Growth0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%175.0%190.9%
Year201420152016201720182019
Net Income Growth0.0%0.0%0.0%88.9%163.6%192.5%
Year201420152016201720182019
EBITDA Growth114.6%21.6%79.6%56.9%10.9%10.8%
Year201420152016201720182019
BPS Growth22.7%-100.0%1,112.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Year201420152016201720182019
Capex Growth22.7%-83.6%32.4%-30.6%-14.3%-33.3%




Ratios

Year2013201420152016
EV TO T12M EBIT109.0023.00
Year201720182019
BEST CURRENT EV BEST EBIT13.0013.0011.00
Year2013201420152016201720182019
EV/EBITDA26.0013.009.008.007.00
Year201320142015201620172018
P/S1.001.001.001.00
Year20132014201520162017201820192019
P/B52.005.001.00
Year2013201420152016201720182019
GROSS MARGIN45.0012.0010.0020.00
Year2013201420152016201720182019
ROA-9.000.00-8.000.00
Year2013201420152016201720182019
ROE-64.0010.00-210.006.00
Year2013201420152016
CUR RATIO0.001.000.000.00
Year201320142015
TOT DEBT TO TOT CAP94.0092.0098.00
Year2016
Debt/Equity1,591.00
Year20132014201520162017201820182019
EBITDA Margin45.0020.0018.0028.0028.0030.0031.00
Year20132014201520162017
Operating Margin15.002.004.0016.00
Year2013201420152016201720182019
Profit Margin-186.003.00-26.001.000.000.000.00
Year2017
Market Cap1,239.00
Year2018
1 month return-22.00
Year2018
6 month return-20.00