Industry/Sectors April 3, 2018
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Global Sector Last Month Performance

SectorMonthChangePct
Information Technology Sector-1.86
Consumer Discretionary Sector Sector-1.58
Health Care Sector-1.42
Energy Sector-1.19
Consumer Staples Sector-1.03
Industrials Sector-1.00
Financials Sector-0.95
Real Estate Sector-0.71
Materials Sector-0.55
Telecommunication Services Sector-0.52
Utilities Sector-0.34

Global Sector YTD

SectorYTDChangePct
Telecommunication Services Sector-6.46
Consumer Staples Sector-6.29
Energy Sector-5.59
Real Estate Sector-4.94
Materials Sector-4.84
Industrials Sector-2.98
Health Care Sector-2.90
Financials Sector-2.49
Utilities Sector-2.19
Consumer Discretionary Sector-0.90
Information Technology Sector1.02

Global Bond Yields By Sector Last Month

sectorAverageYTMYieldChange
Cash and/or Derivatives1.530.44
Banking4.490.85
Agency5.060.49
Financial Institutions5.110.34
Finance Companies5.140.67
Technology5.160.50
Capital Goods5.230.45
Reits5.430.66
Sovereign5.650.47
Owned No Guarantee5.820.54
Utility5.950.40
Financial Other6.060.32
Industrial6.090.64
Electric6.140.41
Insurance6.330.63
Transportation6.430.27
Industrial Other6.430.47
Consumer Cyclical6.460.82
Basic Industry6.510.53
Communications6.710.01
Energy6.730.64
Brokerage/Asset Managers/Exchanges7.160.76
Consumer Non-Cyclical7.30-0.25

Global Bond Yields By Yield Change YTD

sectorAverageYTMYieldChange
Consumer Cyclical6.450.74
Banking4.490.70
Brokerage/Asset Managers/Exchanges7.160.64
Energy6.710.63
Insurance6.330.62
Sovereign5.670.55
Industrial6.060.55
Basic Industry6.510.51
Transportation6.430.51
Industrial Other6.430.47
Reits5.370.46
Utility5.950.45
Technology5.160.45
Agency5.070.44
Finance Companies5.160.43
Financial Institutions5.120.42
Owned No Guarantee5.820.41
Consumer Non-Cyclical7.270.40
Capital Goods5.230.38
Cash and/or Derivatives1.530.30
Electric6.080.28
Financial Other6.060.15
Communications6.78-0.13

Fund flows Last Month

FocusObjectiveAsset ClassFlow USD mn
industryTECHNOLOGY SECTOREquity1146.71
industryFINANCIAL SECTOREquity755.07
industryENERGY SECTOREquity498.66
industryBASIC MATERIALS SECTOREquity342.63
industryCOMMUNICATIONS SECTOREquity293.24
industryENERGY SECTORMixed Allocation-0.13
industryMULTIPLE SECTOREquity-0.51
industryREAL ESTATE SECTORAlternative-1.26
industryINDUSTRIAL SECTOREquity-135.79
industryNATURAL RESOURCES SECTOREquity-208.12
industryUTILITIES SECTOREquity-576.05
CommoditiesPRECIOUS METAL SECTOREquity-1161.38
industryHEALTH CARE SECTOREquity-2410.13
industryREAL ESTATE SECTOREquity-3033.11

Fund flows YTD

FocusObjectiveAsset ClassFlow USD mn
industryTECHNOLOGY SECTOREquity5906.71
industryBASIC MATERIALS SECTOREquity2894.48
industryCOMMUNICATIONS SECTOREquity2257.91
industryFINANCIAL SECTOREquity1885.40
industryINDUSTRIAL SECTOREquity1486.87
industryREAL ESTATE SECTOREquity1127.24
industryENERGY SECTOREquity1061.56
industryHEALTH CARE SECTOREquity981.22
industryUTILITIES SECTOREquity376.41
industryNATURAL RESOURCES SECTOREquity35.40
industryMULTIPLE SECTOREquity9.11
industryENERGY SECTORMixed Allocation1.73
industryREAL ESTATE SECTORAlternative-3.71
CommoditiesPRECIOUS METAL SECTOREquity-250.64

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    • SectorPEFy1PEFy22018Growth
    Consumer Discretionary14.4512.5814.40
    Consumer Staples17.2715.8210.36
    Energy12.0610.4218.01
    Financials11.079.8711.85
    Health Care15.3713.7111.81
    Industrials14.3012.6212.96
    Information Technology15.5513.4215.18
    Materials11.1210.0810.99
    Real Estate14.6913.4112.93
    Telecommunication Services12.0510.6613.31
    Utilities11.3810.2711.74

    Chart: China Theme Continued. March sectors performance in focus. (18 slides)

    EPS sector growth highlighted

    Source: ML

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    April and next few months are likely be dominated by doubts about China growth.

    China is not looking that strong this year and is not like it will be a usual support for the global economy.

    China GDP growth estimate is down to the levels of 6%. Yuan is weaker. Inflation is higher. China rates are higher. Foreign exchange reserves are lower vs max levels. China Investment levels are lower. Savings levels are lower. The current account is getting less positive. Imports are growing fast and faster than exports. Budget balance is negative as usual. Public debt is rising and overall leverage is huge.

    The US hoped for a long time for revaluation of yuan. But the trade is ongoing in the wrong direction for the US trade balance.

    Now president Trump’s trade war with the US that is reminiscent of President Herbert Hoover’s Smoot Hawley Tariff Act that went into law in 1930 could weigh down on China overall weak growth and spin off the next leg of global cooling.

    The trade war is likely to have further weakening result on the yuan and stimulate farther capital flight from China, achieving counter results vs. US initial goals.

    MSCI China rebalancing could serve to offset capital flight but this argument not very strong.

    China has possibly further aggravated the US by launching oil price futures in yuan, which is supposed to undermine a bit US dollar dominance in energy markets.

    Hope that international Silk Road project will stimulate domestic China growth is acceptable, however.

    China market is still overall +1.8% YTD to the end of March, but it was weak in March down 3.2% and 70btps weaker than US markets.

    China is very straightforward in achieving its growth targets. Most of the growth comes from regional provinces. Their administrations are judged based on the criteria if the growth has been achieved or they get fired.

    Domestic China GDP Per capitals levels achieving 10K per person closer – moves China closer t be the biggest middle-class nation with subsequent political problems.

    China meddling in North Korea could overall reduce risk in South East Asia – another positive. But the risk reduction is unlikely to offset weaker China growth risk.



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    Materials: Dynamic Materials Corporation (BOOM) Plunges 5.23% on April 02


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    Performance is between 2018-03-30 and 2018-02-28

    Top Longs Based On Momentum in each Sector and Period Change

    sectorPick
    Information TechnologyVAKRANGEE LTD India 43.04%
    Consumer DiscretionaryLOTTE SHOPPING LTD Korea (South) 16.82%
    Health CareMEDY-TOX INC Korea (South) 24.47%
    FinancialsXL GROUP LTD United States 27.62%
    EnergyTOURMALINE OIL CORP Canada 19.03%
    Consumer StaplesNESTLE MALAYSIA Malaysia 21.05%
    IndustrialsHYUNDAI GLOVIS LTD Korea (South) 31.75%
    MaterialsSUZANO BAHIA SUL PAPEL E CELULOSE Brazil 50.07%
    UtilitiesRWE AG Germany 25.55%
    Real EstateVINGROUP JOINT STOCK COMPANY Vietnam 21.45%

    Top Shorts Based On Momentum in each Sector and Period Change

    sectorPick
    Information TechnologyMICRO FOCUS INTERNATIONAL PLC United Kingdom -49.45%
    Consumer DiscretionaryNEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LTD China -25.62%
    Health CareHARTALEGA HOLDINGS Malaysia -47.40%
    FinancialsAFLAC INC United States -49.99%
    EnergyINDIAN OIL CORP LTD India -53.68%
    Consumer StaplesBRF SA Brazil -27.38%
    IndustrialsWARTSILA Finland -67.80%
    MaterialsINDOCEMENT TUNGGAL PRAKARSA Indonesia -25.64%
    UtilitiesGAIL INDIA LTD India -27.59%
    Real EstateGREEN BAY PROPERTIES LTD Mauritius -27.27%

    Recent Industry/Sectors Ideas

    China Theme Continued. March sectors performance in focus. (18 slides)

    Download file in Power Point    		YTD Sector Performance

    Download file in Power Point    		Sector Bonds Performance and Yields

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