MidLincoln relaunches its Monthly GEM Strategy product in a new format called Monthly Global Strategy from Rural View.
Trumpeting markets... Global markets YTD put on solid performance -- Latam markets are in the lead up almost 9% YTD, overall GEMs are almost as strong too. US market is strong up c.5% up YTD while Europe is a laggard.
Single best market YTD is Kazakhstan. Best markets are also Turkey, Poland, Ukraine and Argentina all above 10%.
Russia unfortunately is the laggard and that's probably unjust, but nevertheless represents investors vote on Russia.
India, China Turkey and South Korea have all been doing well supported by long oil importers trade.
China strength is especially a good sign and may be the second key support driver for the markets this year after a US markets strength as a driver. Albeit US case is not hugely convincing
and mostly reliant on Trump's infrastructure spending promise.
Every Fed hike this year is likely to serve as a buying opportunity, including one tomorrow.
Oil price stood still in the first 2 months of the year while started falling in March. We think the key knock out driver for oil was US dollar strength. USD dollar strength is likely to continue for a while and there could be some more negative pressure on oil. Short oils long steels trade is therefore likely to continue.
Though there is still quite a lot to go through this year -
like Brexit and Turkey possibly getting closer to falling out of Nato, the year's positive tune is likely to continue.
The trade is long dollar, steel and long equities, short oil and bonds. Gold is supposed to be weaker, but it's also strong, probably behaving like equity in the higher inflation backdrop.
Best last month among various countries' equity markets were TURKEY +12.08%, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA +11.35%, KAZAKHSTAN +11.20%, JAMAICA +8.91%, EGYPT +8.59%, CROATIA +7.70%, POLAND +7.35%, ROMANIA +5.46%, MEXICO +4.99%, INDIA +4.99%,
While worst last month among various countries' equity markets were NIGERIA -10.32%, RUSSIA -8.69%, GHANA -7.71%, MOROCCO -5.45%, ZIMBABWE -5.10%, COLOMBIA -4.56%, BULGARIA -3.99%, NORWAY -3.60%, NEW ZEALAND -3.57%, PERU -2.83%,
Best YTD among various country equities were KAZAKHSTAN +30.11%, ARGENTINA +21.62%, UKRAINE +20.34%, JAMAICA +19.07%, POLAND +18.88%, BAHRAIN +17.42%, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA +14.11%, CROATIA +13.09%, BRAZIL +13.05%, ROMANIA +11.94%,
While worst YTD among various country equities were KENYA -11.89%, ZIMBABWE -11.35%, GHANA -8.81%, NIGERIA -8.27%, RUSSIA -5.97%, GREECE -3.78%, OMAN -3.14%, SRI LANKA -2.83%, SAUDI ARABIA DOMESTIC -1.70%, LEBANON -1.62%,
