Weekly Strategy

August 16, 2016

MidLincoln Research

Aggregates for Funds

BIG Data Global Investment Strategy with focus on GEMs

Midlincoln Aggregates for funds

for week ending last Friday (inclusive)

                                     
FocusObjectiveAsset ClassFlow USD mn
CommoditiesINDUSTRIAL METALSCommodity-0.12
CommoditiesPRECIOUS METAL SECTOREquity-49.29
CommoditiesPRECIOUS METALSCommodity-255.31
CommoditiesPRECIOUS METALSMixed Allocation1.11
countryAUSTRALIAEquity34.92
countryAUSTRALIAFixed Income5.24
countryAUSTRALIAMixed Allocation0.28
countryBRAZILEquity3.39
countryBRAZILFixed Income-1402.69
countryCHINAEquity-304.80
countryCHINAFixed Income15.71
countryINDIAEquity184.44
countryINDIAFixed Income-2.75
countryISRAELEquity-0.01
countryJAPANEquity-28347.99
countryJAPANFixed Income-7.85
countryKOREAEquity-80.69
countryPOLANDEquity0.91
countryRUSSIAEquity-22.85
countryRUSSIAFixed Income1.75
countrySOUTH AFRICAEquity2.43
countrySPAINEquity4.86
CountryTAIWANEquity5.98
countryTURKEYEquity1.17
countryUNITED KINGDOMEquity-18.47
industryBASIC MATERIALS SECTOREquity44.98
industryCOMMUNICATIONS SECTOREquity46.44
industryENERGY SECTOREquity105.71
industryFINANCIAL SECTOREquity-0.18
industryHEALTH CARE SECTOREquity11.45
industryINDUSTRIAL SECTOREquity0.48
industryMULTIPLE SECTOREquity0.01
industryNATURAL RESOURCES SECTOREquity-26.27
industryREAL ESTATE SECTORAlternative-0.87
industryREAL ESTATE SECTOREquity78.85
industryTECHNOLOGY SECTOREquity-11.71
industryUTILITIES SECTOREquity199.36
regionAFRICAN REGIONEquity28.90
regionAFRICAN REGIONFixed Income5.04
regionASIAN PACIFIC REGIONEquity54.09
regionASIAN PACIFIC REGIONFixed Income-2.31
regionASIAN PACIFIC REGION EX JAPANEquity128.46
regionASIAN PACIFIC REGION EX JAPANFixed Income-28.73
regionASIAN PACIFIC REGION EX JAPANMixed Allocation0.89
regionEASTERN EUROPEAN REGIONEquity29.10
regionEASTERN EUROPEAN REGIONFixed Income0.84
regionEUROPEAN REGIONEquity-44.51
regionEUROPEAN REGIONFixed Income78.73
regionLATIN AMERICAN REGIONEquity87.78
regionLATIN AMERICAN REGIONFixed Income-173.70
regionMIDDLE EAST REGIONEquity0.41
regionMIDDLE EAST REGIONFixed Income0.23
regionNORDIC REGIONEquity-1.91
regionNORTH AMERICAN REGIONEquity198.99
regionNORTH AMERICAN REGIONFixed Income0.29
RiskGOVERNMENT BONDFixed Income31.55
RiskGOVERNMENT BONDMixed Allocation0.00
RiskINFLATION PROTECTEDBrazil0.11
RiskINFLATION PROTECTEDFixed Income240.02
RiskLONG SHORTAlternative-155.26
RiskLONG SHORTEquity541.16
RiskLONG SHORTFixed Income5.04
RiskLONG SHORTMixed Allocation-0.04
SectorAGRICULTURECommodity-7.64
SectorAGRICULTUREEquity0.01
SectorCONSUMER DISCRETIONARYEquity-16.90
SectorCONSUMER STAPLESEquity-94.20
segmentBRICEquity2.44
segmentBRICFixed Income0.21
segmentDEVELOPED MARKETSEquity18.06
segmentEMEAEquity0.20
segmentEMEAFixed Income1.15
segmentEMERGING MARKETSEquity1072.24
segmentGCCEquity-10.20
segmentGCCFixed Income0.00
segmentGCCMixed Allocation-0.03
segmentMENAEquity0.13
segmentMENAFixed Income0.36
SizeLARGE-CAPEquity3102.56
SizeMID-CAPCommodity-0.07
SizeMID-CAPEquity-371.97
SizeSMALL-CAPEquity-159.23

                         

                                   

Source: Midlincoln Research

Fund Aggregates



Chart: Utilites receive biggest inflow last week. Which supports our yesterday argument: Utilities are well known dividend plays competing with bonds. While DM utilities stocks have done excellent as hunt for the yield spilled over into equities, emerging market utilities are trading below zilch, implying that the Debt to Equity spillover is lagging in GEMs, and that's understandable, given GEM bonds yields are quite chunky especially for less risky investors. But it is likely that GEMs will follow DMs in the pattern. GEM utilities will be the first to react.

Source: ML, Seekingalpha




Emerging markets fund flow showed 1072.2 USD mn of inflow. While Frontier Markets funds showed 0.0 USD mn of inflows.


BRAZIL Equity funds showed 3.4 USD mn of inflow.
BRAZIL Fixed Income funds showed -1402.7 USD mn of outflow.
CHINA Equity funds showed -304.8 USD mn of outflow.
CHINA Fixed Income funds showed 15.7 USD mn of inflow.
INDIA Equity funds showed 184.4 USD mn of inflow.
INDIA Fixed Income funds showed -2.8 USD mn of outflow.
KOREA Equity funds showed -80.7 USD mn of outflow.
RUSSIA Equity funds showed -22.8 USD mn of outflow.
RUSSIA Fixed Income funds showed 1.8 USD mn of inflow.
SOUTH AFRICA Equity funds showed 2.4 USD mn of inflow.
TURKEY Equity funds showed 1.2 USD mn of inflow.


COMMUNICATIONS SECTOR Equity funds showed 46.4 USD mn of inflow.
ENERGY SECTOR Equity funds showed 105.7 USD mn of inflow.
FINANCIAL SECTOR Equity funds showed -0.2 USD mn of outflow.
REAL ESTATE SECTOR Alternative funds showed -0.9 USD mn of outflow.
REAL ESTATE SECTOR Equity funds showed 78.8 USD mn of inflow.
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR Equity funds showed -11.7 USD mn of outflow.
UTILITIES SECTOR Equity funds showed 199.4 USD mn of inflow.


LONG SHORT Alternative funds showed -155.3 USD mn of outflow.
LONG SHORT Equity funds showed 541.2 USD mn of inflow.
LONG SHORT Fixed Income funds showed 5.0 USD mn of inflow.
LONG SHORT Mixed Allocation funds showed 0.0 USD mn of inflow.


It is worth noting that MidLincoln data shows flow dynamics for last week ending last Friday where as EPFR data reports data only to last Wednesday, which makes ML data far more relevant

Top 5 fund winners and Top 5 losers by country by inflow

Russia Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity HSBC Global Investment Funds - Russia Equity23.92
Equity HSBC Global Investment Funds - Russia Equity6.89
Equity HSBC Global Investment Funds - Russia Equity5.89
Equity HSBC MSCI Russia Capped UCITS ETF $ is a5.24
Equity JPMorgan Funds - Russia Fund is an open-end3.41

Russia Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity LYXOR ETF RUSSIA (Dow Jones Russia GDR) --23.79
Equity Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3x Shares is an-21.35
Equity LYXOR ETF RUSSIA Dow Jones Russia GDR - D-20.85
Equity iShares MSCI Russi a ADR/GDR UCITS ETF-2.09
Equity db x-trackers MSCI Russia Capped Index UCITS-1.28

Source: MidLincoln Research


China Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund is a non-diversified,92.50
Equity W.I.S.E. - CSI 300 China Tracker� is an index-tracking10.05
Fixed Income Deutsche Invest I China Bonds is an open-end6.80
Equity First State Global Umbrella PLC - China3.87
Fixed Income Deutsche Invest I China Bonds is an open-end2.76

China Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity Hang Seng Investment Index Funds Series --85.30
Equity iShares China Large-Cap ETF is an exchange-traded-79.25
Equity HSBC Global Investment Funds - Chinese Equity-49.66
Equity HSBC Global Investment Funds - Chinese-41.60
Equity LYXOR UCITS ETF CHINA ENTERPRISE HSCEI --39.48

Source: MidLincoln Research


South Africa Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity iShares MSCI South Africa UCITS ETF is an2.08
Equity NEXT FUNDS FTSE/JSE Africa Top40 Linked Exchange0.35
Equity NEXT FUNDS FTSE/JSE Africa Top40 Linked0.00

South Africa Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity NEXT FUNDS FTSE/JSE Africa Top40 Linked0.00
Equity NEXT FUNDS FTSE/JSE Africa Top40 Linked Exchange0.35
Equity iShares MSCI South Africa UCITS ETF is an2.08

Source: MidLincoln Research


Korea Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity Lyxor ETF MSCI Korea is a UCITS compliant9.36
Equity Korea Equity Fund, Inc. is a non-diversified,7.61
Equity JPMorgan Funds - Korea Equity is an open-end0.51
Equity WisdomTree Korea Hedged Equity Fund is an0.45
Equity Korea Equity Fund, Inc. is a non-diversified,0.01

Korea Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity iShares MSCI South Korea Capped ETF is an-89.31
Equity INVESCO Korean Equity Fund is a UCITS-3.28
Equity INVESCO Korean Equity Fund is a UCITS certified-3.21
Equity db x-trackers - MSCI Korea TRN Index UCITS-2.32
Equity Deutsche X-trackers MSCI South Korea Hedged-0.19

Source: MidLincoln Research


India Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity Aberdeen Global - India Equity Fund is67.75
Equity Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund, Inc.59.26
Equity Aberdeen Global - India Equity Fund is47.61
Equity iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded24.93
Equity WisdomTree India Earnings Fund is an exchange-traded22.81

India Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity HSBC Global Investment Funds - Indian Equity-30.85
Equity HSBC Global Investment Funds - Indian Equity-16.69
Equity db x-trackers CNX Nifty UCITS ETF is a UCITS-4.70
Equity iShares India 50 ETF is an exchange-traded-4.69
Equity AMUNDI ETF MSCI INDIA UCITS ETF is a UCITS-4.66

Source: MidLincoln Research


Turkey Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity iShares MSCI Turkey UCITS ETF is an open-end,1.17

Turkey Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity iShares MSCI Turkey UCITS ETF is an open-end,1.17

Source: MidLincoln Research


Brazil Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped is short4.70
Fixed Income DWS Brazil Bond Fund is an open-end investment2.19
Equity db x-trackers - MSCI Brazil TRN Index UCITS2.11
Equity NEXT FUNDS Ibovespa Linked Exchange Traded1.05
Fixed Income HSBC Global Investment Funds - Brazil Bond1.02

Brazil Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Fixed Income Fondo Mutuo Security Fixed Income BRL is-99.99
Equity Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 3x Shares is an-2.21
Equity Lyxor ETF Brazil (Ibovespa) USD is an exchange-2.13
Fixed Income UBS (Lux) Bond Sicav - Brazil is an open-end-1.97
Fixed Income Aberdeen Global - Brazil Bond Fund is a-0.81

Source: MidLincoln Research


Australia Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Australia (AUD) is15.84
Equity iShares MSCI Australia UCITS ETF is an open-end,10.47
Equity Candriam Equities L - Australia is a SICAV8.57
Fixed Income5.36
Equity Candriam Equities L - Australia is a SICAV3.26

Australia Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity Baring International Umbrella - Baring Australia-3.37
Equity Australia Equity Income Fund is an open-end-1.83
Equity UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Australia (AUD)-0.13
Fixed Income Daiwa Bond Fund Series - Monthly Dividend-0.13
Fixed Income ZKB-CIF I Australia Govt. Bond Index is0.00

Source: MidLincoln Research


Canada Inflows


Canada Outflows

Source: MidLincoln Research

Good luck! And don’t stay out of the market for too long. As the policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.

Ovanes Oganisyan

research@midlincoln.com

 August 16, 2016· Midlincoln Research · midlincoln.com