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May 17, 2017

Best 15 Markets Yesterday

CountryChangePct
GREECE2.26
CZECH REPUBLIC2.02
AUSTRIA1.76
BULGARIA1.67
TUNISIA1.50
KAZAKHSTAN1.47
ITALY1.46
NORWAY1.36
LEBANON1.32
ROMANIA1.31
UKRAINE1.23
SPAIN1.18
SWITZERLAND1.14
FINLAND1.09
PORTUGAL1.06

Worst 15 Markets Yesterday

CountryChangePct
PAKISTAN-2.22
INDONESIA-1.51
EGYPT-1.01
MOROCCO-0.90
BAHRAIN-0.82
ISRAEL-0.66
SINGAPORE-0.65
MAURITIUS-0.56
NEW ZEALAND-0.53
HONG KONG-0.48
POLAND-0.48
COLOMBIA-0.43
PERU-0.38
GHANA-0.35
KUWAIT-0.32

Best 10 Markets YTD

CountryChangePct
ARGENTINA43.99
POLAND32.43
JAMAICA32.13
AUSTRIA27.38
KOREA25.98
KAZAKHSTAN24.58
SPAIN24.30
ROMANIA24.11
GREECE23.47
TURKEY22.31

Worst 10 Markets YTD

CountryChangePct
OMAN-11.66
LEBANON-6.84
RUSSIA-5.08
SAUDI ARABIA DOMESTIC-3.01
QATAR-2.61
TUNISIA-2.59
QATAR DOMESTIC-2.47
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO-1.51
JORDAN-0.40
MOROCCO-0.30

Best 10 Markets Last 12 months

CountryChangePct
JAMAICA52.90
AUSTRIA46.22
BULGARIA45.02
BRAZIL44.85
KAZAKHSTAN40.78
TAIWAN38.93
KOREA36.13
ARGENTINA34.00
CHINA31.62
PAKISTAN30.76

Worst 10 Markets Last 12 months

CountryChangePct
NIGERIA-29.39
TUNISIA-18.44
BOTSWANA-17.08
GHANA-14.83
OMAN-12.29
SLOVENIA-11.94
EGYPT-11.92
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA-11.62
KENYA-7.03
ISRAEL-5.67

Country USD Yields and Week Changes

CountryAverage YieldYield Average WkChange % pts
Bolivia4.960.08
Tunisia6.100.06
Indonesia4.120.05
Costa Rica6.180.03
Philippines3.310.02
Ethiopia6.580.02
Turkey5.070.02
Sri Lanka5.290.01
Lebanon6.050.01
Jordan5.870.01
Dominican Republic5.300.01
Poland2.740.00
Slovak Republic2.460.00
United States0.990.00
Panama3.530.00
Egypt5.99-0.01
Malaysia3.47-0.01
Hungary3.33-0.01
Lithuania2.49-0.01
Paraguay5.53-0.01
Vietnam4.30-0.01
India3.90-0.01
China3.05-0.01
Chile2.98-0.01
Romania3.60-0.02
Cote D'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)6.33-0.02
Morocco3.41-0.02
Pakistan5.05-0.02
Jamaica5.81-0.02
Trinidad and Tobago4.77-0.03
Mongolia5.92-0.03
Croatia (Hrvatska)3.58-0.03
Oman4.64-0.03
Serbia3.45-0.03
Russian Federation3.93-0.04
Uruguay4.31-0.04
Peru3.84-0.04
Mexico4.50-0.04
Colombia4.10-0.05
Argentina6.30-0.06
Azerbaijan4.81-0.06
South Africa4.91-0.06
Kazakhstan4.58-0.07
Zambia7.73-0.07
Brazil4.78-0.08
Nigeria6.89-0.09
El Salvador8.49-0.11
Kenya6.56-0.11
Angola8.64-0.12
Ecuador8.66-0.15
Gabon6.56-0.15
Ghana8.15-0.18
Iraq7.81-0.24
Ukraine7.65-0.29
Venezuela24.96-0.58

Chart: CEE Real Rates

Given the real rate, Russia carry traded is extremely crowded.. Inflation is now on target at 4%.. And CBR is likely to cut another 200bpts if stars align. But the longer end of the curve are likely to slowly get unwind given the FX and oil price uncertainty

Source: ML, BAML

Download file in Power Point


Comment

Weekly performance is between 2017-05-16 and 2017-05-12

Best global markets last week EM LATIN AMERICA +1.61%, EUROPE +1.57%, EM (EMERGING MARKETS) +1.26%,

While worst global markets last week FM (FRONTIER MARKETS) 0.10%, USA 0.41%, EFM ASIA 1.14%,
  • U.S. Equities Hold Steady at S&P 500 Record as Phone Stocks Gain
  • Gundlach: Ditch U.S. Equities for Emerging Markets
  • Jupiter raises £90m for emerging markets trust
  • Downgraded Countries: Top emerging-market performers last year.
  • China stocks break 4-day winning streak, regulatory concerns linger
  • China Stocks Jump, Led By Strong Earnings From Weibo, Sina
  • Move over, US, the stampede is on for European equities
  • What European equities cannot offer
  • Has Global Oil Demand Really Surpassed Supply?
  • Oil Prices Slip After U.S. API Reports Build In Crude Stocks
  • Steel Price Forecast, April 2017: US Steel to Invest in Plants
  • China AM: Ferrous futures move up amid steel price gains
  • Today Gold Price: Track today gold rate latest trends and news
  • Gold price: Find all the latest trends and news about Gold

    Best since the start of the week among various stock markets were AUSTRIA +5.34%, CZECH REPUBLIC +3.07%, BULGARIA +2.61%, ITALY +2.56%, NORWAY +2.32%, SPAIN +2.32%, RUSSIA +2.03%, BRAZIL +1.96%, FINLAND +1.94%, ROMANIA +1.85%,

    While worst since the start of the week among various stock markets were NIGERIA -2.65%, EGYPT -1.83%, TUNISIA -1.11%, MAURITIUS -1.08%, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES -1.06%, BANGLADESH -1.00%, KAZAKHSTAN -0.92%, INDONESIA -0.77%, PAKISTAN -0.72%, BAHRAIN -0.57%,

    News

    Best 10 Market Since the begining of the week


    AUSTRIA 5.34


  • Austrian President calls on all women to wear headscarves in ...
  • Austrian party picks new leader, early elections likely
  • Tracking how many key positions Trump has filled so far
  • Austria: Mining, Minerals and Fuel Resources
  • Growing immigration will 'keep Austria young'
  • Austria aims to boost wine exports
  • Fitch Affirms Sovereign Ratings Of Austria & Portugal
  • The Dawn of the Ultra-Long Bond
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-05-17Inflation Rate MoM APR0.003
    2017-05-17Inflation Rate YoY APR0.023

    CZECH REPUBLIC 3.07


  • Controversial Czech President jokes 'there are too many journalists ...
  • Czech PM gambles by resigning to end finance minister spat
  • Bright GDP growth figures from Eastern Europe
  • Czech politicians take aim at banks
  • Právo: Czechs want to live long, but not to age
  • Seat increases sales by 10% and production at its Greater ...
  • UPDATE 1-Czech PM's party puts bank tax back on election menu
  • Czech Parliament Approves Armenian Genocide Resolution

    BULGARIA 2.61


  • Bulgarian President Convenes National Security Council
  • Bulgaria's Prime Minister, President congratulate Macron on his ...
  • Bulgaria records 0.8% economic growth in Q1 2017 – flash estimate
  • Bulgaria Posts 46.4% Drop in FDI in Jan-Nov 2016
  • Telenor Bulgaria boosts mobile data usage in Q1
  • Bulgaria's Exports Grew 4% in 2015 - Final Data
  • Bulgaria expects Jan-April fiscal surplus to shrink to 1.6 pct
  • Bulgaria's Debt Grows by EUR 2.1238 in 2016

    ITALY 2.56


  • President Obama arrives in Italy for climate change speech
  • Former Prime Minister Renzi predicted to take first place in Italian ...
  • Italy's economic growth remains weak in first quarter ...
  • Politics and Economics in the Week Ahead
  • This is what Italy's population will look like in 50 years
  • High-end exports seen growing by 20% to 2022, with US in lead
  • Italy is a key NATO customer for defense firms — but it comes with risk
  • Fitch cuts Italy's debt rating; cites weak growth, political risk
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-05-16GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q10.01
    2017-05-16GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q10.003
    2017-05-17Balance of Trade MARˆ4.7B

    NORWAY 2.32


  • President of Indias message on the eve of Constitution Day of Norway
  • Secretary General commends Norway's contributions to NATO
  • Norwegian economic growth likely to have picked up further in Q1 ...
  • Crude Collapse Forces Cuts in Norway Investment Forecasts
  • While other digital publishers flail this Norwegian publication is ...
  • Nordea, Carnegie Take Top Spots in 2017 Nordic Brokers Ranking
  • Norway 2017 budget reduces spending of cash from wealth fund ...
  • Oil-, gas-rich Norway expects sluggish economic growth
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-05-16GDP Growth Rate YoY Q10.024
    2017-05-16GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q10.005
    2017-05-16Consumer Confidence Q25.6

    SPAIN 2.32


  • President McRobbie to visit Spain and France
  • Spain wants euro bonds and common unemployment insurance
  • Spanish economic growth beats forecasts
  • China and Spain in Latin America: Cooperate or Compete
  • Spain's population set to drop 11% by 2050
  • Spain's exports boost helps trade deficit drop
  • Spain Budget Becomes Battlefield as Party Graft Haunts Rajoy
  • Spain FAILS to hit Brussels deficit target for fifth year in a row
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-05-163-Month Letras Auction
    2017-05-1810-Year Obligacion Auction
    2017-05-185-Year Bonos Auction
    2017-05-183-Year Bonos Auction

    RUSSIA 2.03


  • Let President Trump try to work with Russia
  • Ukraine Prime Minister condemns Russian aggression during Israel ...
  • IMF improves economic growth outlook for Russia
  • Russia's investment flop shows flawed recovery
  • Russia Adopts New Strategy for Development of Information Society
  • Putin urges Chinese premier to keep positive trend in bilateral trade ...
  • Russia budget math breaks in Opec's favour, for now
  • €23m recouped on Quinn Russia debt
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-05-17GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q10.004
    2017-05-18Industrial Production YoY APR0.009

    Companies Reported Yesterday Include:
    CompanyCountrySectorReported
    AFI Development PLCRUSSIAReal Estate5/16/2017
    Mosenergo PJSCRUSSIAUtilities5/16/2017
    Mosenergo PJSCRUSSIAUtilities5/16/2017
    M.Video PJSCRUSSIAConsumer Discretionary5/16/2017

    Companies that will report Today:
    CompanyCountrySectorReported
    Cherkizovo Group PJSCRUSSIAConsumer Staples5/17/2017
    Cherkizovo Group PJSCRUSSIAConsumer Staples5/17/2017
    Rostelecom PJSCRUSSIATelecommunication Services5/17/2017
    Rostelecom PJSCRUSSIATelecommunication Services5/17/2017
    Rostelecom PJSCRUSSIATelecommunication Services5/17/2017
    TMK PJSCRUSSIAEnergy5/17/2017
    TMK PJSCRUSSIAEnergy5/17/2017

    BRAZIL 1.96


  • Brazil: President Temer's first year after impeachment
  • Spain, Brazil Want EU-Mercosur Deal, Worry About Venezuela
  • Why IMF Slashed Brazil's Economic Growth Outlook in 2017
  • Brazil infra sector set to benefit from PPI investment program
  • Reforms end three years of turmoil and recession in Brazil
  • GM and Toyota to boost Brazil exports
  • Brazil Budget Gap Widens More Than Forecast as Revenue Falls
  • Brazil's Temer gives cities debt relief, wins reform backing
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-05-17Business Confidence MAY53.4

    FINLAND 1.94


  • Former Finnish President Mauno Koivisto dies at 93
  • Finland PM hails Qatar's 'remarkable development'
  • Cities hurting, not promoting economic growth in Finland
  • European Semester Shows EU in the Eye of the Storm
  • Population projections reveal shocking future trends
  • EU must adopt a more vigorous defence of free trade
  • Finnish government to fall short of economic targets, analysts say
  • Decline and Fall: Finland's National Debt Beyond 1990s Crisis Level
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-05-16GDP YoY MAR0.027
    2017-05-16GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q10.018
    2017-05-16GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q10.003

    ROMANIA 1.85


  • Bucharest mayor vs. current President: who would win the ...
  • Romanian PM to JPost: We oppose terrorist salaries, UNESCO ...
  • Romania champions EU economic growth in Q1
  • CRF Health: Romania investment part of growth strategy
  • INS: Romania's population, negative natural growth rate of 9782 ...
  • Romania's exports and imports accelerate in March to new record ...
  • Romania budget revenues down 5.7 pct in January 2017
  • CEE MARKETS-Bucharest stocks hit 9-year high, Hungary lifts bond ...

    Worst 10 Market Since Begining of the Week


    NIGERIA -2.65


  • France's Macron appoints Edouard Philippe as prime minister
  • Leaders Nigeria needs, by CAN President
  • France's Macron appoints Edouard Philippe as prime minister
  • Stockbrokers to Facilitate Economic Growth through Capital Market
  • Nigeria: Investment in Lekki Free Trade Zone hits $15b
  • Nigeria: The Elephant in the Room - Nigeria's Population Growth ...
  • Nigeria Strategy Report Q2 2017 Outlook - Domestic Economic and ...
  • Nigeria: Budget 2017 - Govt, Opec Differ On Oil Output
  • Nigeria's Debt Service To Revenue Ratio Will Reduce As Revenue ...
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-05-16Inflation Rate YoY APR0.171
    2017-05-16Food Inflation YoY APR0.1845
    2017-05-18GDP Growth Rate YoY Q10.004
    2017-05-18GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1-0.1294

    EGYPT -1.83


  • October 6, 1981: Egypt's President Anwar Sadat assassinated over ...
  • October 6, 1981: Egypt's President Anwar Sadat assassinated over ...
  • Egypt economic growth
  • Egypt's business climate improving, challenges remain: Capital ...
  • Forget ISIS, Egypt's Population Boom Is its Biggest Threat
  • Growth rate of Egypt's exports reaches 7.4% in 2016
  • Egypt's budget deficit hits $10.8bn
  • Yields Fall at Egypt Debt Sale as Weaker Pound Lures Foreigners

    TUNISIA -1.11


  • Tunisian President Orders Army to Protect Oil and Gasfields
  • Tunisia will restrict some imports to tackle trade deficit: PM
  • Tunisia economic growth picks up in first quarter
  • Tunisia investment conference aims to kickstart economy
  • Tunisia's Leader Vows to Deliver on Demands of the Revolution
  • UAE- Tunisa's exports down 3.3%, imports up 5.8% in Q1 2017
  • Tunisia: budget deficit exceeds 4 billion dinars at end November
  • Regional partners pledge billions in help for Tunisia

    MAURITIUS -1.08


  • Mauritius, most business-friendly, says the island nation's Vice ...
  • Mauritius: Prime Minister Lauds Mauritius-China Relations
  • The island where Africa's rich get richer
  • Tanzania: Tanga Cement Upbeat About Growth Prospects
  • The island where Africa's rich get richer
  • The Zambian Kwacha to Recover on Steadily Rising Investor ...
  • Mauritius: Budget 2016-2017 Targets Major Public Sector Reform ...
  • India, Cyprus agree to new tax treaty: Here's how it clears ...

    UNITED ARAB EMIRATES -1.06


  • Readout of President Donald J. Trump's Meeting with Crown Prince ...
  • UAE says 'significant breakthrough' reached in Libya talks
  • IMF Staff Completes 2017 Article IV Mission to the United Arab ...
  • A roundup of Emirates Investment Bank's 2017 GCC Wealth Insights ...
  • Political ambition stymied by a numbers game
  • Emirates SkyCargo is reaching into US market
  • UAE govt approves higher federal spending for 2015 - PM
  • UAE Bonds Pulling Away as Cash Reserves Beat OPEC Woes

    BANGLADESH -1.00


  • Justice Karnan maybe in Nepal or Bangladesh, we want President ...
  • Circa: Prime Minister of Bangladesh Says Clinton Personally ...
  • Bangladesh heading for fastest economic growth in FY17: Govt
  • Two-day Bangladesh Development Conference begins at Harvard ...
  • Reforms end three years of turmoil and recession in Brazil
  • The Promising Future of Inland Waterway Trade in South Asia
  • Next budget to be 'best' in my life: Muhith
  • Emergence of South Asia as the fastest growing region is a major ...

    KAZAKHSTAN -0.92


  • Kazakh President attends One Belt, One Road forum, meets with ...
  • Kazakh Prime Minister: no time to relax about GDP growth
  • Kazakhstan's Economy Has Bottomed Out, Now Searching for New ...
  • Kazakhstan's Renewable Energy Quest
  • Central Asia's Population Growth
  • Kazakhstan's exports forecast to grow by 15.2% in 2017
  • Government proceeds with privatising state property, says vice ...
  • Kazakhstan's Debt Focus Turns Domestic as Bond Buyback an Option

    INDONESIA -0.77


  • Indonesia President Calls for Respect of Governor Blasphemy Verdict
  • President Jokowi holds bilateral meeting with Polish prime minister
  • Indonesian economic growth picks up in first quarter
  • Bleak Q1-2017 Foreign Direct Investment Growth in Indonesia
  • We are all brothers: Jokowi
  • Indonesia's April export, import growth slower than expected
  • Indrawati chops $10bn from Indonesia's budget
  • Indonesia`s Debt to GDP Ratio Lower than Other Countries: Govt
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-05-16Motorbike Sales YoY APR
    2017-05-16Car Sales YoY APR
    2017-05-18Loan Growth YoY MAR0.081
    2017-05-18Lending Facility Rate MAY0.055
    2017-05-18Interest Rate Decision 0.0475
    2017-05-18Deposit Facility Rate MAY0.04

    PAKISTAN -0.72


  • CM holds a detailed meeting with President EXIM Bank of China
  • Hong Kong police on high alert as Pakistan prime minister visits city ...
  • Political empowerment intrinsic to economic growth: Nawaz
  • One Belt One Road will give huge boost to Pakistan investment ...
  • Pakistan Partners With Alibaba for E-Commerce Growth
  • Service exports jump 56pc
  • Budget deficit likely to go up further
  • Is Pakistan's debt really a problem?

    BAHRAIN -0.57


  • Egypt's al-Sisi rounds off Gulf tour in Bahrain
  • HRH Prime Minister congratulates French President
  • $100m fund launched in Bahrain to help SMEs growth
  • Bahrain Investment Market unlocks untapped investment opportunities
  • Up the creek again, without a paddle
  • 'Indian merchandise exports to 6 Gulf countries down 18.7% in 2015 ...
  • 'No end in sight' to Bahrain's fiscal woes in 2017
  • Bahrain Reserves Tumble as BofA Expects Gulf to Demand Action

    Our Recent Research Reports

  • 2017-05-16 ML Morning Meeting
  • 2017-05-16 MidLincoln Weekly Chart Art
  • 2017-05-15 ML Sectors Strategy Weekly
  • 2017-05-15 ML Fixed Income Queries and Stance Weekly
  • 2017-05-15 ML Weekly (with correct links)
  • 2017-05-12 ML Morning Meeting
  • 2017-05-12 ML IPO Watch Weekly
  • 2017-05-12 ML Commodities Weekly

    Recent Chart Art

    CEE Real Rates

    Download file in Power Point
    New Silk Road From Beijing to Barcelona

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    Bond Yields is a one good reason for European stock performance. Not?

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    Spike in HK yields is mostly caused by dislocation in coal markets which caused record losses for HK trader Noble Group. Yields spike..

    Download file in Power Point
    Energy Sector is the worst in global equity sectors performance ytd.

    Download file in Power Point
    Average IPO Performance to date by country % this year.

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    Betting on European Election - Choose DAX

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    Russian carry trade - does it all stops here?

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    Gold funds inflows slow down… Will the gold price follow?

    Download file in Power Point