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Report: Midlincoln Commodities Strategy

Oil price volatility spooked markets. Few months ago, when Brent price was storming through 80$/bbl few were strongly opposing the upward momentum, agreeing with rising prices. But just before the year end – the oil price collapsed and most of the commentators have found a reason or two to predict lower levels for oil price ahead.
30$ drop in the oil price has caused some downward revisions of forecasts. According to Reuters: analysts have slashed forecast for 2019 to 67$/bbl from 70$/bbl for WTI. Brent forecast was downgraded to 74$/bbl 76$/bbl. Most frequently cited negative factors for downgrade of forecast are return of the unconventional (shale and ethanol) oil in the US as well as recovering production in Libya and Nigeria as well as the end of the driving season. While supporting factors for the oil price is OPEC cut and stricter compliance with OPEC production quotas as well as economic growth in the US.

Source: ML

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Market Volatility Bulletin: Can VIX And SPY Both Be Elevated For ... Oil Price Volatility Crashes To Three-Year Low Energy Market: Positive Seasonality For Oil And Gas Nears End OPEC's Spare Capacity Will Calm Oil Markets In 2017 The Information Content of OVX for Crude Oil Returns Analysis and ... CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) - Investing.com Market Volatility Bulletin: Can VIX And SPY Both Be Elevated For ... OVX Volatility And The Oil Panic Of 2014 - Roan Resources, Inc.A ... Examination on the Relationship between OVX and Crude Oil ... - Core The Information Content of OVX for Crude Oil Returns Analysis and ... Examination on the Relationship between OVX and Crude Oil ... - Core Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns - PURE (PDF) The nexus between the oil price and its volatility risk in a ... Oil Prices Implied Volatility or Direction - Semantic Scholar

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