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ML Rural Crafts Laboratory News

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21 From Coins into Financials Sector 5

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20 Midlincoln Research Financials 5

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    Craft News
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  • A Brexit delay could leave 10 million commemorative coins spinning
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    October 10, 2019
    24

    Top Longs Based on Momentum

    9b9
    tickernamecountrysectorPeriodChange
    CPICAPITEC LTDSouth AfricaFinancials21.68
    CPICAPITEC LTDSouth AfricaFinancials21.68
    BAJFINANCEBAJAJ FINANCE LTDIndiaFinancials17.68
    GGALGRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA ADR REPTGArgentinaFinancials17.25
    GGALGRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA ADR REPTGArgentinaFinancials17.25
    HBLHABIB BANK LTDPakistanFinancials17.14
    HBLHABIB BANK LTDPakistanFinancials17.14
    MTMMOMMET SHS LTDSouth AfricaFinancials16.67
    MTMMOMMET SHS LTDSouth AfricaFinancials16.67
    BAJAJFINSVBAJAJ FINSERV LTDIndiaFinancials16.08

    Top Shorts Based on Momentum

    98a
    tickernamecountrysectorPeriodChange
    IRBR3IRB BRASIL RESSEGUROS SABrazilFinancials-66.91
    IBULHSGFININDIABULLS HOUSING FINANCE LTDIndiaFinancials-48.28
    AMTDTD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORPUnited StatesFinancials-24.75
    YESBANKYES BANK LTDIndiaFinancials-23.81
    MILBANK MILLENNIUM SAPolandFinancials-16.67
    MILBANK MILLENNIUM SAPolandFinancials-16.67
    ALRALIOR BANK SAPolandFinancials-15.83
    ALRALIOR BANK SAPolandFinancials-15.83
    RECLTDREC LTDIndiaFinancials-14.36
    1050BANQUE SAUDI FRANSISaudi ArabiaFinancials-13.72
    5b2
    MLIndexnameytd1monthFy1PE
    M1WO0FN Index MSCIMSCI WORLD/FINANCIALS NR16.327.2910.6
    MSGUFNCL Index MSCIMSCI World Financials US13.747.12-
    MXEF Index MSCIMSCI EM6.325.8611.4
    FTFINC Index FTSEFTSE ASX FINANCIALS INDX4.107.969.9

    Commodities YTD Performance

    1f40
    NameUnitsKeyLastPriceCurrencyYTDChange USDpct1month
    NickelUSD/MTNickel17555USD59.373.42
    Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.Palladium1672.06USD33.245.09
    Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.Silver17.77USD19.10-1.33
    Gold SpotUSD/t oz.Gold1505.17USD18.21-0.20
    Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.Oil58.13USD15.75-9.53
    Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.Ethanol1.44USD13.395.11
    Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwtRough Rice11.90USD13.33-3.72
    Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.Platinum891.93USD12.40-4.68
    Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.Lean Hogs0.674USD11.770.07
    Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feetLumber362.00USD6.97-6.00
    Cocoa (ICE)USD/MTCocoa2448.00USD5.751.83
    Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.Corn3.955USD4.707.40
    Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.Oats2.8475USD3.261.97
    Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.Soybean9.2225USD2.813.97
    Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.Sugar0.1246USD0.482.89
    Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.Feeder Cattle1.4125USD-2.952.54
    Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.Wheat5.01USD-3.002.87
    Copper (Comex)USd/lb.Copper2.5705USD-3.15-1.72
    Canola (ICE)CAD/MTCanola465.30CAD-3.762.35
    Rubber (Tokyo)JPY/kgRubber158.50JPY-5.60-7.09
    Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.Coffee0.9570000000000001USD-6.36-4.49
    3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3Mo Zinc2298.00USD-7.11-2.17
    3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3Mo Aluminum1751.50USD-7.47-2.26
    Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.Live Cattle1.1085USD-9.725.24
    Cocking CoalCNY/MTCocking Coal1260CNY-10.06-6.67
    SteelUSD/MTSteel407USD-12.47-2.16
    3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT3Mo Tin16395.00USD-15. 3ed 38-2.70
    Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.Cotton0.6115999999999999USD-15.700.81
    Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.Orange Juice1.023USD-20.052.40
    Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtuNatural Gas2.29USD-35.67-13.26

    Country USD Yields Ordered By YTD Yield Change

    1f40
    countryYieldYieldChange
    Argentina21.0915.27
    Jamaica14.508.35
    Zambia14.608.20
    Lebanon15.538.15
    Switzerland10.403.26
    Tunisia8.542.75
    Israel7.391.94
    Sri Lanka6.551.50
    Turkey6.791.28
    Kazakhstan6.021.25
    Ecuador7.590.72
    Gabon6.730.68
    China5.530.67
    Iraq6.860.47
    Oman5.310.36
    Nigeria6.180.36
    Angola7.280.30
    Senegal5.810.29
    Cote D'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)5.980.28
    United States5.600.27
    Costa Rica6.310.20
    Bolivia5.180.20
    Egypt6.200.17
    India4.730.13
    Ethiopia5.820.01
    Ghana6.08-0.01
    Pakistan6.25-0.07
    Kenya5.53-0.16
    South Africa4.81-0.19
    El Salvador6.28-0.24
    Dominican Republic4.67-0.26
    Mexico4.28-0.31
    Italy3.63-0.32
    Slovak Republic2.12-0.36
    Mongolia5.06-0.36
    Jordan5.81-0.37
    Trinidad and Tobago3.78-0.39
    Ukraine6.53-0.40
    Macau4.61-0.42
    Panama3.78-0.50
    Lithuania1.96-0.51
    Romania2.80-0.53
    Hong Kong3.42-0.55
    Morocco3.37-0.58
    Uruguay3.12-0.59
    Singapore3.41-0.62
    Paraguay4.53-0.63
    Indonesia3.31-0.67
    Kuwait3.17-0.67
    Chile3.65-0.69
    Canada4.98-0.69
    Malaysia2.96-0.70
    Hungary2.54-0.71
    Saudi Arabia3.98-0.72
    Serbia2.41-0.75
    Peru3.35-0.76
    Russian Federation3.71-0.77
    Poland1.97-0.77
    Guatemala3.95-0.78
    Finland3.26-0.78
    United Arab Emirates3.33-0.79
    Australia3.88-0.82
    Taiwan2.60-0.85
    Ireland3.54-0.87
    Belgium4.53-0.87
    Azerbaijan3.85-0.91
    Philippines2.51-0.91
    Vietnam2.79-0.93
    Colombia3.61-0.96
    United Kingdom3.82-1.01
    Croatia (Hrvatska)2.31-1.03
    Qatar2.83-1.05
    Thailand3.00-1.07
    Netherlands3.77-1.08
    Brazil3.95-1.10
    Korea (South)2.71-1.11
    Sweden2.79-1.25
    Bahrain4.89-1.42
    France4.92-1.76
    Luxembourg6.40-3.28
    Venezuela0.00-53.30
  • Financials Regional Performance Last Month

    ad6
    SubindustryEuropeEMUGEMWorld
    Banks: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance0.000.00-0.800.00
    Diversified Financials: Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)0.000.000.00-2.04
    Diversified Financials: Diversified Financial Services-3.99-3.360.02-2.49
    Insurance Industry Group-3.03-2.48-0.29-3.43
    Insurance: Insurance-3.03-2.48-0.29-3.43
    Financials Sector-4.57-3.91-1.46-4.14
    Banks Industry Group-5.23-4.93-1.78-4.37
    Banks: Banks-5.23-4.93-1.83-4.37
    Diversified Financials Industry Group-5.59-4.16-1.04-4.39
    Diversified Financials: Capital Markets-6.01-4.49-1.24-4.78
    Diversified Financials: Consumer Finance0.000.00-2.74-6.21

    Financials Regional Performance YTD

    add
    SubindustryEuropeEMUGEMWorld
    Diversified Financials: Consumer Finance0.000.0015.3419.95
    Insurance Industry Group9.239.863.9014.53
    Insurance: Insurance9.239.863.9014.53
    Diversified Financials: Capital Markets8.3810.048.7510.07
    Diversified Financials Industry Group8.5210.493.608.70
    Financials Sector-1.18-0.27-1.928.03
    Banks Industry Group-10.37-8.69-3.904.66
    Banks: Banks-10.37-8.69-3.764.66
    Diversified Financials: Diversified Financial Services9.5911.47-6.881.83
    Banks: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance0.000.00-7.320.00
    Diversified Financials: Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)0.000.000.00-11.36

    Financials Performance in Various Countries Last Month

    1550
    countryPeriodChange
    Argentina11.22
    Israel9.25
    Pakistan9.03
    Turkey8.82
    Japan5.72
    Spain5.05
    Sweden5.01
    South Africa4.97
    Italy4.87
    Netherlands4.19
    Ireland3.94
    Norway3.66
    Vietnam3.30
    Belgium3.28
    Canada2.68
    Hungary2.63
    United Kingdom2.51
    Korea (South)2.49
    China2.32
    Switzerland1.69
    Romania1.58
    Singapore1.58
    Mexico1.31
    Egypt1.03
    France0.97
    Oman0.86
    Russian Federation0.51
    Germany0.31
    Chile0.04
    United States-0.72
    Peru-0.96
    Colombia-1.00
    Qatar-1.12
    Australia-1.17
    Denmark-1.24
    Philippines-1.48
    Thailand-1.99
    Bahrain-2.06
    Nigeria-2.50
    Hong Kong-2.58
    Bangladesh-2.76
    Kuwait-3.58
    Finland-3.82
    Poland-3.87
    Jordan-3.87
    Kenya-3.95
    Austria-4.03
    Morocco-4.29
    Saudi Arabia-4.85
    India-4.89
    United Arab Emirates-5.13
    Greece-5.47
    Brazil-5.94
    Kazakhstan-5.95
    Sri Lanka-6.45
    Indonesia-6.92
    Czech Republic-9.47
    Taiwan-59.76
    Malaysia-87.21
    Portugal

    Financials Valuation and Growth in Various Countries (Simple Averages)

    1f40
    CountryPEFy0PEFy12019Growth
    BERMUDA10.687.9969.65
    CHINA10.336.8931.33
    CYPRUS7.035.9025.02
    ISRAEL14.0811.3423.69
    HONG KONG11.4713.0821.51
    PORTUGAL0.000.0017.11
    JAPAN10.749.6415.22
    PHILIPPINES16.5011.0215.12
    INDIA12.489.0713.12
    THAILAND11.018.6012.51
    INDONESIA16.9613.8310.68
    COLOMBIA6.679.278.30
    UNITED STATES11.7612.427.26
    BRAZIL11.269.427.26
    SWITZERLAND1.581.675.32
    SPAIN9.487.184.92
    TAIWAN10.779.964.47
    SINGAPORE21.7021.353.87
    SOUTH AFRICA9.748.442.99
    HUNGARY0.004.580.42
    MEXICO6.826.840.15
    IRELAND0.000.000.00
    OMAN0.000.000.00
    LEBANON0.000.000.00
    POLAND0.000.000.00
    EGYPT0.000.000.00
    QATAR0.000.000.00
    NIGERIA0.000.000.00
    GUERNSEY0.000.000.00
    VIETNAM0.000.000.00
    KAZAKHSTAN0.002.470.00
    CZECH0.000.000.00
    PAKISTAN0.000.000.00
    SOUTH KOREA6.975.76-1.20
    NORWAY9.4110.39-1.40
    NEW ZEALAND19.9624.42-2.89
    CHILE11.8911.53-2.96
    GEORGIA5.552.47-4.07
    CANADA9.5810.88-4.63
    MALAYSIA12.348.38-4.84
    AUSTRALIA17.7916.27-5.29
    RUSSIA3.585.35-6.66
    BELGIUM6.3515.56-7.05
    SWEDEN5.9017.23-8.09
    BRITAIN12.909.42-10.00
    ITALY5.147.30-10.23
    GERMANY11.2515.32-10.46
    FRANCE12.538.33-11.38
    TURKEY2.813.85-12.79
    FINLAND0.000.00-17.88
    NETHERLANDS10.476.45-22.47
    AUSTRIA7.228.09-22.50
    DENMARK7.986.36-31.52
    1803
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    Valuation and Growth of Various Sectors in Financials

    35
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    Link to Financials Macro Page 38

    Financials sector trades at 2019 simple average 13 PE Fy1 of 12.8 x a and 2020 4b PE Fy2 of 11.2 x

    Financials sector trades at 2019 simple average 20 EV/EBITDA of 4.4 x and 2020 5a EV/EBITDA of 4.2 x

    In terms of Dividend yield Financials sector trades at 2019 1c Yield of 3.3 % and 2020 51 Dividend Yield of 3.6 %

    On ROE basis Financials sector trades at 2019 1b ROE of 10.1 % and 2020 4a ROE of 10.2 %

    Financials subindustries by 2019 EBITDA Margin %

    773
    Industry2019 EBITDA Margin
    Financial Exchanges & Data51.3
    Diversified Capital Markets6.9
    Multi-Sector Holdings42.2
    Insurance Brokers25.8
    Investment Banking & Brokerage22.6
    Property & Casualty Insurance0.0
    Diversified Banks1.6
    Consumer Finance8.0
    Life & Health Insurance0.0
    Asset Management & Custody Ban31.7
    Regional Banks2.0
    Multi-line Insurance6.6
    Other Diversified Financial Se2.7
    Specialized Finance6.2
    Mortgage REITs0.0
    Thrifts & Mortgage Finance0.0
    Reinsurance0.0

    Financials most profitable companies by 2019 EBITDA Margin %

    a39
    Industrycompany2019 EBITDA Margin
    Multi-Sector HoldingsInvestor AB401.8
    Multi-line InsuranceBB Seguridade Participacoes SA98.3
    Asset Management & Custody Ban3i Group PLC90.8
    Multi-Sector HoldingsKinnevik AB78.7
    Financial Exchanges & DataASX Ltd76.4
    Financial Exchanges & DataHong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd75.4
    Financial Exchanges & DataMoscow Exchange MICEX-RTS PJSC70.8
    Financial Exchanges & DataB3 SA - Brasil Bolsa Balcao70.1
    Asset Management & Custody BanCETIP SA - Mercados Organizados69.6
    Financial Exchanges & DataCBOE Holdings Inc67.1
    Financial Exchanges & DataJapan Exchange Group Inc65.4
    Asset Management & Custody BanPartners Group Holding AG65.1
    Financial Exchanges & DataCME Group Inc64.8
    Financial Exchanges & DataIntercontinental Exchange Inc64.4
    Consumer FinanceShriram Transport Finance Co Ltd63.9

    Companies in Financials By Market Share %

    688
    companymarketshare
    Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd2.5
    Ping An Insurance Group Co of China Ltd2.4
    China Construction Bank Corp2.2
    Old Mutual PLC2.1
    Agricultural Bank of China Ltd2.1
    JPMorgan Chase & Co1.9
    Bank of China Ltd1.9
    AXA SA1.9
    Allianz SE1.8
    Bank of America Corp1.6
    Wells Fargo & Co1.5
    Citigroup Inc1.4
    China Life Insurance Co Ltd1.4
    Banco Santander SA1.3
    Assicurazioni Generali SpA1.3

    Countries Market Share in Financials %

    57f
    countrymarketshare
    UNITED STATES19.5
    CHINA19.0
    BRITAIN6.1
    JAPAN5.8
    CANADA5.5
    FRANCE4.6
    GERMANY4.1
    SWITZERLAND3.9
    BRAZIL3.2
    INDIA3.0
    SOUTH KOREA2.8
    RUSSIA2.8
    ITALY2.7
    AUSTRALIA2.4
    SPAIN2.4
    556
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    Largest Companies in Financials by Market Capitalisation mn$

    171e
    TickerCompanyCountryIndustrySubIndustryMarketCapUSDmn
    JPM USJPMorgan Chase & CoUNITED STATESBanksDiversified Banks360132.7
    1398 HKIndustrial & Commercial Bank of China LtdCHINABanksDiversified Banks269080.2
    BAC USBank of America CorpUNITED STATESBanksDiversified Banks259608.5
    2318 HKPing An Insurance Group Co of China LtdCHINAInsuranceLife & Health Insurance221044.6
    WFC USWells Fargo & CoUNITED STATESBanksDiversified Banks212154.1
    939 HKChina Construction Bank CorpCHINABanksDiversified Banks193503.5
    1288 HKAgricultural Bank of China LtdCHINABanksDiversified Banks168409.2
    C USCitigroup IncUNITED STATESBanksDiversified Banks152328.2
    HSBA LNHSBC Holdings PLCBRITAINBanksDiversified Banks148336.3
    3988 HKBank of China LtdCHINABanksDiversified Banks139218.6
    3968 HKChina Merchants Bank Co LtdCHINABanksDiversified Banks123307.7
    RY CNRoyal Bank of CanadaCANADABanksDiversified Banks113697.3
    1299 HKAIA Group LtdHONG KONGInsuranceLife & Health Insurance110494.2
    AMT USAmerican Tower CorpUNITED STATESReal EstateSpecialized REITs100299.2
    TD CNToronto-Dominion Bank/TheCANADABanksDiversified Banks99619.5
    2628 HKChina Life Insurance Co LtdCHINAInsuranceLife & Health Insurance98684.0
    ALV GRAllianz SEGERMANYInsuranceMulti-line Insurance96468.5
    AXP USAmerican Express CoUNITED STATESDiversified FinancialsConsumer Finance94516.4
    CBA AUCommonwealth Bank of AustraliaAUSTRALIABanksDiversified Banks93447.0
    HDFCB INHDFC Bank LtdINDIABanksDiversified Banks92364.3

    Number of Companies in Financials by Country by SubIndustry and Market Capitalisation mn$

    1297
    CountryIndustrySubIndustryNumber of companiesMarketCapUSDmn
    HONG KONGReal EstateReal Estate Development789481.5
    HONG KONGReal EstateDiversified Real Estate Activi113088.3
    CHINAReal EstateReal Estate Development997988.0
    TAIWANReal EstateReal Estate Development34095.0
    JAPANReal EstateDiversified Real Estate Activi473311.2
    HONG KONGReal EstateRetail REITs121517.2
    JAPANReal EstateRetail REITs15653.5
    SINGAPOREReal EstateIndustrial REITs10.0
    RUSSIAReal EstateDiversified Real Estate Activi2252.5
    PHILIPPINESReal EstateDiversified Real Estate Activi113346.2
    UNITED STATESReal EstateSpecialized REITs9333715.8
    UNITED STATESReal EstateDiversified REITs318432.7
    UNITED STATESReal EstateResidential REITs498872.3
    BRITAINReal EstateRetail REITs39284.0
    BRAZILReal EstateReal Estate Operating Companie38070.5
    INDONESIAReal EstateReal Estate Development23054.8
    UNITED STATESReal EstateOffice REITs338349.7
    SINGAPOREReal EstateDiversified Real Estate Activi10.0
    SINGAPOREReal EstateRetail REITs10.0
    UNITED STATESReal EstateReal Estate Services10.0

    Top Companies Financials by Dividend Yield

    6e4
    TickerCompanyCountryIndustrySubIndustryDividendYld_fy1
    2777 HKGuangzhou R&F Properties Co LtdCHINAReal EstateReal Estate Development13.9
    RDF SJRedefine Properties LtdSOUTH AFRICAReal EstateDiversified REITs12.9
    RBS LNRoyal Bank of Scotland Group PLCBRITAINBanksDiversified Banks12.6
    3333 HKChina Evergrande GroupCHINAReal EstateReal Estate Development12.6
    AGNC USAGNC Investment CorpUNITED STATESDiversified FinancialsMortgage REITs12.5

    Cheapest Companies in Financials on FY1 PE

    af9
    TickerCompanyCountryIndustrySubIndustryPE_fy1
    2777 HKGuangzhou R&F Properties Co LtdCHINAReal EstateReal Estate Development2.9
    VTBR LIVTB Bank PJSCRUSSIABanksDiversified Banks2.9
    VTBR RMVTB Bank PJSCRUSSIABanksDiversified Banks2.9
    139130 KSDGB Financial Group IncSOUTH KOREABanksRegional Banks3.4
    81 HKChina Overseas Grand Oceans Group LtdHONG KONGReal EstateReal Estate Development3.7
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