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28

ML Rural Crafts Laboratory News

4

31 From Souvenirs into Consumer Discretionary Sector 5

4

29 Mount Maple Souvenirs Cons. Cyclicals 5

49 52
5c
  • View Craft Comics 63
  • Down Load Craft Business Presentation 17
    Craft News
    227
  • Cubs fan sues the team over ivy trinket
  • The Coolest Airline Souvenirs And How You Can Get Them
  • Blue Ridge Institute features souvenirs in new exhibit 18
    October 10, 2019
    24

    Top Longs Based on Momentum

    a03
    tickernamecountrysectorPeriodChange
    028300HLB INCKorea (South)Consumer Discretionary161.90
    3998BOSIDENG INTERNATIONAL LTDChinaConsumer Discretionary29.41
    3690MEITUAN DIANPINGChinaConsumer Discretionary19.60
    3690MEITUAN DIANPINGChinaConsumer Discretionary19.60
    TPRTAPESTRY INCUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary19.42
    3092ZOZO INCJapanConsumer Discretionary17.06
    FLTRFLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT PLCIrelandConsumer Discretionary17.01
    LENLENNAR A CORPUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary15.96
    ALSEA*ALSEA DE CVMexicoConsumer Discretionary15.02
    TITANTITAN COMPANY LTDIndiaConsumer Discretionary14.53

    Top Shorts Based on Momentum

    a1d
    tickernamecountrysectorPeriodChange
    NIONIO AMERICAN DEPOSITARY SHARES REPChinaConsumer Discretionary-40.56
    NPNNASPERS LTDSouth AfricaConsumer Discretionary-34.94
    NPNNASPERS LTDSouth AfricaConsumer Discretionary-34.94
    1269CHINA FIRST CAPITAL GROUP LTDChinaConsumer Discretionary-28.95
    ROKUROKU INC CLASS AUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary-28.65
    TMATOTAL MAROC SAMoroccoConsumer Discretionary-13.32
    MKSMARKS AND SPENCER GROUP PLCUnited KingdomConsumer Discretionary-12.82
    SBUXSTARBUCKS CORPUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary-12.07
    GRUBGRUBHUB INCUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary-11.86
    MELIMERCADOLIBRE INCUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary-11.60
    227
    MLIndexnameytd1monthFy1PE
    MXEF Index MSCIMSCI EM6.325.8611.4

    Commodities YTD Performance

    1f40
    NameUnitsKeyLastPriceCurrencyYTDChange USDpct1month
    NickelUSD/MTNickel17555USD59.373.42
    Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.Palladium1672.06USD33.245.09
    Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.Silver17.77USD19.10-1.33
    Gold SpotUSD/t oz.Gold1505.17USD18.21-0.20
    Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.Oil58.13USD15.75-9.53
    Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.Ethanol1.44USD13.395.11
    Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwtRough Rice11.90USD13.33-3.72
    Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.Platinum891.93USD12.40-4.68
    Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.Lean Hogs0.674USD11.770.07
    Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feetLumber362.00USD6.97-6.00
    Cocoa (ICE)USD/MTCocoa2448.00USD5.751.83
    Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.Corn3.955USD4.707.40
    Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.Oats2.8475USD3.261.97
    Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.Soybean9.2225USD2.813.97
    Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.Sugar0.1246USD0.482.89
    Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.Feeder Cattle1.4125USD-2.952.54
    Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.Wheat5.01USD-3.002.87
    Copper (Comex)USd/lb.Copper2.5705USD-3.15-1.72
    Canola (ICE)CAD/MTCanola465.30CAD-3.762.35
    Rubber (Tokyo)JPY/kgRubber158.50JPY-5.60-7.09
    Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.Coffee0.9570000000000001USD-6.36-4.49
    3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3Mo Zinc2298.00USD-7.11-2.17
    3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3Mo Aluminum1751.50USD-7.47-2.26
    Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.Live Cattle1.1085USD-9.725.24
    Cocking CoalCNY/MTCocking Coal1260CNY-10.06-6.67
    SteelUSD/MTSteel407USD-12.47-2.16
    3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT3Mo Tin16395.00USD-15. 3ed 38-2.70
    Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.Cotton0.6115999999999999USD-15.700.81
    Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.Orange Juice1.023USD-20.052.40
    Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtuNatural Gas2.29USD-35.67-13.26

    Country USD Yields Ordered By YTD Yield Change

    1f40
    countryYieldYieldChange
    Argentina21.0915.27
    Jamaica14.508.35
    Zambia14.608.20
    Lebanon15.538.15
    Switzerland10.403.26
    Tunisia8.542.75
    Israel7.391.94
    Sri Lanka6.551.50
    Turkey6.791.28
    Kazakhstan6.021.25
    Ecuador7.590.72
    Gabon6.730.68
    China5.530.67
    Iraq6.860.47
    Oman5.310.36
    Nigeria6.180.36
    Angola7.280.30
    Senegal5.810.29
    Cote D'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)5.980.28
    United States5.600.27
    Costa Rica6.310.20
    Bolivia5.180.20
    Egypt6.200.17
    India4.730.13
    Ethiopia5.820.01
    Ghana6.08-0.01
    Pakistan6.25-0.07
    Kenya5.53-0.16
    South Africa4.81-0.19
    El Salvador6.28-0.24
    Dominican Republic4.67-0.26
    Mexico4.28-0.31
    Italy3.63-0.32
    Slovak Republic2.12-0.36
    Mongolia5.06-0.36
    Jordan5.81-0.37
    Trinidad and Tobago3.78-0.39
    Ukraine6.53-0.40
    Macau4.61-0.42
    Panama3.78-0.50
    Lithuania1.96-0.51
    Romania2.80-0.53
    Hong Kong3.42-0.55
    Morocco3.37-0.58
    Uruguay3.12-0.59
    Singapore3.41-0.62
    Paraguay4.53-0.63
    Indonesia3.31-0.67
    Kuwait3.17-0.67
    Chile3.65-0.69
    Canada4.98-0.69
    Malaysia2.96-0.70
    Hungary2.54-0.71
    Saudi Arabia3.98-0.72
    Serbia2.41-0.75
    Peru3.35-0.76
    Russian Federation3.71-0.77
    Poland1.97-0.77
    Guatemala3.95-0.78
    Finland3.26-0.78
    United Arab Emirates3.33-0.79
    Australia3.88-0.82
    Taiwan2.60-0.85
    Ireland3.54-0.87
    Belgium4.53-0.87
    Azerbaijan3.85-0.91
    Philippines2.51-0.91
    Vietnam2.79-0.93
    Colombia3.61-0.96
    United Kingdom3.82-1.01
    Croatia (Hrvatska)2.31-1.03
    Qatar2.83-1.05
    Thailand3.00-1.07
    Netherlands3.77-1.08
    Brazil3.95-1.10
    Korea (South)2.71-1.11
    Sweden2.79-1.25
    Bahrain4.89-1.42
    France4.92-1.76
    Luxembourg6.40-3.28
    Venezuela0.00-53.30
  • Consumer Discretionary Regional Performance Last Month

    fa3
    SubindustryEuropeEMUGEMWorld
    Retailing: Multiline Retail-6.110.00-0.44-0.73
    Consumer Durables & Apparel: Household Durables-5.85-4.91-0.45-0.77
    Consumer Services: Diversified Consumer Services0.000.001.65-0.93
    Consumer Durables & Apparel: Leisure Products0.000.0038.53-1.46
    Retailing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail-3.70-3.70-2.44-2.05
    Retailing Industry Group-3.09-3.28-2.22-2.11
    Retailing: Specialty Retail-1.76-2.69-1.33-2.49
    Consumer Discretionary Sector-4.07-3.88-1.49-2.55
    Consumer Durables & Apparel Industry Group-4.20-3.712.79-2.61
    Consumer Services Industry Group-3.92-2.31-0.63-2.72
    Consumer Services: Hotels Restaurants & Leisure-3.92-2.31-2.48-2.74
    Automobiles & Components: Automobiles-4.30-4.30-1.58-3.28
    Automobiles & Components Industry Group-4.47-4.47-2.00-3.44
    Consumer Durables & Apparel: Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods-4.00-3.691.35-3.60
    Automobiles & Components: Auto Components-5.10-5.10-3.39-3.90
    Retailing: Distributors0.000.00-0.86-5.64

    Consumer Discretionary Regional Performance YTD

    fae
    SubindustryEuropeEMUGEMWorld
    Retailing: Specialty Retail17.6117.930.2621.20
    Retailing: Multiline Retail10.210.001.2221.10
    Consumer Durables & Apparel: Leisure Products0.000.0037.1719.61
    Consumer Durables & Apparel: Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods18.9322.9528.4118.55
    Consumer Durables & Apparel Industry Group17.9622.8120.9718.54
    Consumer Durables & Apparel: Household Durables10.4111.992.0118.39
    Retailing Industry Group15.9417.3119.0717.44
    Consumer Services: Hotels Restaurants & Leisure4.464.539.6216.37
    Consumer Services Industry Group4.464.5327.1816.13
    Retailing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail41.7443.3723.9114.43
    Consumer Discretionary Sector9.7810.8913.3013.99
    Retailing: Distributors0.000.0020.644.31
    Automobiles & Components: Auto Components-0.96-0.96-6.291.61
    Automobiles & Components Industry Group-1.68-1.68-7.95-0.04
    Automobiles & Components: Automobiles-1.87-1.87-8.42-0.60
    Consumer Services: Diversified Consumer Services0.000.0055.98-5.49

    Consumer Discretionary Performance in Various Countries Last Month

    c24
    countryPeriodChange
    Ireland17.01
    Mexico10.02
    Korea (South)8.18
    India5.98
    Turkey5.94
    Sweden5.72
    Poland5.51
    Japan4.68
    Taiwan4.19
    Australia2.85
    Brazil2.03
    United States0.53
    Chile0.36
    Singapore0.00
    Germany-0.27
    Saudi Arabia-0.29
    France-0.89
    China-1.32
    Kuwait-1.99
    United Kingdom-2.53
    Spain-2.71
    Thailand-2.91
    Indonesia-4.26
    Greece-4.44
    Canada-4.46
    Hong Kong-4.57
    Malaysia-4.62
    Italy-6.01
    Denmark-7.12
    Switzerland-8.76
    South Africa-10.12
    Morocco-13.32
    Philippines-33.18

    Consumer Discretionary Valuation and Growth in Various Countries (Simple Averages)

    147b
    CountryPEFy0PEFy12019Growth
    THAILAND32.1029.0226.75
    INDONESIA10.006.7320.38
    MALAYSIA10.1514.2517.33
    RUSSIA10.645.1215.45
    SOUTH KOREA7.417.977.28
    SWITZERLAND5.477.125.09
    SOUTH AFRICA11.229.114.40
    FRANCE13.0515.093.99
    SPAIN22.0222.953.80
    ITALY27.500.003.49
    TAIWAN16.5119.162.03
    CHINA8.608.931.76
    LUXEMBOURG32.4730.051.59
    INDIA9.1213.151.46
    UNITED STATES13.7312.141.12
    NETHERLANDS0.0016.560.00
    ARGENTINA0.000.000.00
    MACAU16.5515.41-0.02
    JAPAN11.5513.86-1.49
    CANADA14.2217.30-2.70
    BRAZIL11.3515.25-2.72
    TURKEY9.779.88-3.32
    HONG KONG9.5410.26-3.71
    AUSTRALIA21.0821.15-4.13
    BRITAIN12.798.59-7.15
    CHILE26.6922.21-7.74
    MEXICO17.1516.56-8.23
    PHILIPPINES38.0836.90-8.27
    SINGAPORE0.000.00-8.36
    GERMANY9.948.81-11.22
    SWEDEN15.4517.74-12.91
    125b
    Emerging Markets Apparel & Textile Products
    /---/
    Emerging Markets Automotive
    /---/
    Emerging Markets Consumer Discretionary Srvcs
    /---/
    Emerging Markets Distributors
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  • Where to Go in 2019/---/ 4c

    Valuation and Growth of Various Sectors in Consumer Discretionary

    35
    3b2
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    44d
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    85

    Link to Consumer Discretionary Macro Page 44

    Consumer Discretionary sector trades at 2019 simple average 13 PE Fy1 of 39.6 x a and 2020 13 PE Fy2 of 12.4 x 44

    Consumer Discretionary sector trades at 2019 simple average 16 EV/EBITDA of 8.3 x a and 2020 15 EV/EBITDA of 7.6 x 51

    In terms of Dividend yield Consumer Discretionary sector trades at 2019 12 Yield of 2.3 % a and 2020 1a Dividend Yield of 2.5 % 43

    On ROE basis Consumer Discretionary sector trades at 2019 10 ROE of 9.3 % a and 2020 10 ROE of 10.2 % 46

    Consumer Discretionary subindustries by 2019 EBITDA Margin %

    dbe
    Industry2019 EBITDA Margin
    Casinos & Gaming28.7
    Cable & Satellite30.2
    Broadcasting32.1
    Apparel, Accessories & Luxury19.3
    Household Appliances12.5
    Specialized Consumer Services25.3
    Movies & Entertainment21.8
    Education Services31.1
    Internet & Direct Marketing Re19.8
    Tires & Rubber15.1
    Home Improvement Retail13.6
    Motorcycle Manufacturers16.6
    Home Furnishings14.2
    Apparel Retail15.8
    Department Stores12.7
    Housewares & Specialties13.4
    Restaurants23.6
    Footwear12.4
    Textiles8.5
    10.9
    General Merchandise Stores11.9
    Homebuilding15.4
    Publishing13.2
    Consumer Electronics11.5
    Specialty Stores11.0
    Automobile Manufacturers36.0
    Leisure Products11.4
    Automotive Retail18.4
    Advertising12.6
    Homefurnishing Retail6.2
    Auto Parts & Equipment11.2
    Computer & Electronics Retail5.3
    Distributors5.2
    Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines21.0

    Consumer Discretionary most profitable companies by 2019 EBITDA Margin %

    9d6
    Industrycompany2019 EBITDA Margin
    Automobile ManufacturersPorsche Automobil Holding SE1219.6
    Cable & SatelliteEutelsat Communications SA78.0
    Cable & SatelliteSES SA60.8
    Automotive RetailUSS Co Ltd54.1
    RestaurantsMcDonald's Corp51.2
    Casinos & GamingGenting Singapore PLC46.8
    Hotels, Resorts & Cruise LinesInterContinental Hotels Group PLC46.5
    BroadcastingMedia Nusantara Citra Tbk PT44.1
    BroadcastingDiscovery Communications Inc41.8
    BroadcastingDiscovery Communications Inc41.8
    Department StoresGolden Eagle Retail Group Ltd41.5
    RestaurantsRestaurant Brands International Inc40.7
    Cable & SatelliteLiberty Global PLC40.6
    Cable & SatelliteLiberty Global PLC40.6
    BroadcastingScripps Networks Interactive Inc39.8

    Companies in Consumer Discretionary By Market Share %

    641
    companymarketshare
    Volkswagen AG4.5
    Toyota Motor Corp4.4
    Amazon.com Inc3.8
    Daimler AG3.2
    Ford Motor Co2.6
    General Motors Co2.4
    Honda Motor Co Ltd2.3
    Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV2.1
    Bayerische Motoren Werke AG1.9
    Home Depot Inc/The1.7
    Nissan Motor Co Ltd1.7
    Comcast Corp1.5
    Hyundai Motor Co1.4
    Peugeot SA1.4
    Sony Corp1.3

    Countries Market Share in Consumer Discretionary %

    582
    countrymarketshare
    UNITED STATES34.3
    JAPAN15.9
    GERMANY15.4
    SOUTH KOREA12.7
    FRANCE6.2
    BRITAIN4.9
    INDIA2.0
    CHINA1.9
    SWEDEN0.8
    CANADA0.8
    HONG KONG0.7
    TAIWAN0.5
    SWITZERLAND0.5
    SPAIN0.5
    BRAZIL0.3
    560
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    Largest Companies in Consumer Discretionary by Market Capitalisation mn$

    17cb
    TickerCompanyCountryIndustrySubIndustryMarketCapUSDmn
    AMZN USAmazon.com IncUNITED STATESRetailingInternet & Direct Marketing Re851792.7
    HD USHome Depot Inc/TheUNITED STATESRetailingHome Improvement Retail250724.3
    DIS USWalt Disney Co/TheUNITED STATESMediaMovies & Entertainment232972.4
    7203 JPToyota Motor CorpJAPANAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers215491.8
    MC FPLVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SEFRANCEConsumer Durables & ApparelApparel, Accessories & Luxury206474.9
    CMCSA USComcast CorpUNITED STATESMediaCable & Satellite201706.5
    CMCSK USComcast CorpUNITED STATESMediaCable & Satellite201706.5
    MCD USMcDonald's CorpUNITED STATESConsumer ServicesRestaurants161632.5
    NKE USNIKE IncUNITED STATESConsumer Durables & ApparelFootwear144428.6
    NFLX USNetflix IncUNITED STATESRetailingInternet & Direct Marketing Re117134.0
    CHTR USCharter Communications IncUNITED STATESMediaCable & Satellite106155.6
    SBUX USStarbucks CorpUNITED STATESConsumer ServicesRestaurants102762.5
    ITX SMIndustria de Diseno Textil SASPAINRetailingApparel Retail96399.7
    CDI FPChristian Dior SEFRANCEConsumer Durables & ApparelApparel, Accessories & Luxury87580.2
    VOW GRVolkswagen AGGERMANYAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers84275.3
    VOW3 GRVolkswagen AGGERMANYAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers84260.0
    LOW USLowe's Cos IncUNITED STATESRetailingHome Improvement Retail82042.2
    RMS FPHermes InternationalFRANCEConsumer Durables & ApparelApparel, Accessories & Luxury72817.2
    6758 JPSony CorpJAPANConsumer Durables & ApparelConsumer Electronics72526.0
    TJX USTJX Cos Inc/TheUNITED STATESRetailingApparel Retail67833.2

    Number of Companies in Consumer Discretionary by Country by SubIndustry and Market Capitalisation mn$

    126a
    CountryIndustrySubIndustryNumber of companiesMarketCapUSDmn
    SOUTH KOREARetailingDepartment Stores46423.5
    HONG KONGRetailingDistributors1648.6
    CHINARetailingDepartment Stores39467.9
    TAIWANRetailingAutomotive Retail18254.7
    TAIWANRetailingDepartment Stores11170.0
    JAPANRetailingAutomotive Retail15847.6
    JAPANRetailingInternet & Direct Marketing Re113503.3
    CHINARetailingComputer & Electronics Retail11978.7
    JAPANRetailingDepartment Stores14757.1
    CHINARetailingAutomotive Retail17384.7
    JAPANRetailingComputer & Electronics Retail14544.2
    JAPANRetailingApparel Retail160764.2
    UNITED STATESRetailingAutomotive Retail481475.2
    UNITED STATESRetailingInternet & Direct Marketing Re5989464.3
    UNITED STATESRetailingHomefurnishing Retail11258.1
    UNITED STATESRetailingComputer & Electronics Retail117316.8
    UNITED STATESRetailingGeneral Merchandise Stores4124471.7
    UNITED STATESRetailingSpecialty Stores639306.5
    CHILERetailingDepartment Stores114176.2
    UNITED STATESRetailingDistributors113618.9

    Top Companies Consumer Discretionary by Dividend Yield

    6b3
    TickerCompanyCountryIndustrySubIndustryDividendYld_fy1
    M USMacy's IncUNITED STATESRetailingDepartment Stores10.1
    DSKY RMDetsky MirRussiaRetail - Discretionary9.8
    LPPF IJMatahari Department Store Tbk PTINDONESIARetailingDepartment Stores7.9
    TRU SJTruworths International LtdSOUTH AFRICARetailingApparel Retail7.8
    ETL FPEutelsat Communications SAFRANCEMediaCable & Satellite7.6

    Cheapest Companies in Consumer Discretionary on FY1 PE

    b5a
    TickerCompanyCountryIndustrySubIndustryPE_fy1
    FCA IMFiat Chrysler Automobiles NVBRITAINAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers4.3
    489 HKDongfeng Motor Group Co LtdCHINAAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers4.4
    PAH3 GRPorsche Automobil Holding SEGERMANYAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers4.4
    DLPH USDelphi Automotive PLCBRITAINAutomobiles & ComponentsAuto Parts & Equipment4.7
    BBBY USBed Bath & Beyond IncUNITED STATESRetailingHomefurnishing Retail5.3
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