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September 24, 2018

Top Longs Based on Momentum

a2e
tickernamecountrysectorPeriodChange
028300HLB CO LTDKorea (South)Consumer Discretionary71.93
028300HLB CO LTDKorea (South)Consumer Discretionary71.93
136HENGTEN NETWORKS GROUP LTDChinaConsumer Discretionary33.33
LULULULULEMON ATHLETICA INCUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary25.39
DISHDISH NETWORK CORP CLASS AUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary22.64
ULTAULTA BEAUTY INCUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary21.27
JWNNORDSTROM INCUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary20.26
LOWLOWES COMPANIES INCUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary19.77
9983FAST RETAILING LTDJapanConsumer Discretionary19.22
1211BYD LTD HChinaConsumer Discretionary18.95

Top Shorts Based on Momentum

a34
tickernamecountrysectorPeriodChange
VIPSVIPSHOP HOLDINGS SPONSORED ADS REPChinaConsumer Discretionary-30.39
494LI & FUNG LTDHong KongConsumer Discretionary-29.41
772CHINA LITERATURE LTDChinaConsumer Discretionary-27.18
ZALZALANDOGermanyConsumer Discretionary-26.28
LAME4LOJAS AMERICANAS PN REP1 PREF SABrazilConsumer Discretionary-24.58
LAME4LOJAS AMERICANAS PN REP1 PREF SABrazilConsumer Discretionary-24.58
751SKYWORTH DIGITAL HOLDINGS LTDChinaConsumer Discretionary-23.68
TALTAL EDUCATION GROUP ADR REPTGChinaConsumer Discretionary-21.04
TALTAL EDUCATION GROUP ADR REPTGChinaConsumer Discretionary-21.04
1269CHINA FIRST CAPITAL GROUP LTDChinaConsumer Discretionary-20.90
22a
MLIndexnameytd1monthFy1PE
MXEF Index MSCIMSCI EM-11.62-3.7110.7

Commodities YTD Performance

1f40
NameUnitsKeyLastPriceCurrencyYTDChange USDpct1month
Cocking CoalCNY/MTCocking Coal1334CNY28.27-4.17
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.Oil79.70USD19.922.49
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.Wheat5.2025USD18.247.60
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MTCocoa2195.00USD13.55-10.44
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.Feeder Cattle1.5773USD8.417.43
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.Orange Juice1.466USD7.64-8.63
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.Oats2.49USD7.104.84
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.Cotton0.7896USD1.96-5.49
NickelUSD/MTNickel12465USD1.76-15.18
Canola (ICE)CAD/MTCanola486.30CAD-0.84-4.72
SteelUSD/MTSteel516USD-1.71-6.27
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.Corn3.4525USD-3.43-2.54
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtuNatural Gas2.91USD-3.64-1.36
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.Live Cattle1.1798USD-3.8913.74
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.Palladium1039.45USD-4.726.04
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT3Mo Tin18870.00USD-5.77-7.61
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.Ethanol1.25USD-8.09-12.59
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.Gold1205.34USD-8.12-7.36
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3Mo Aluminum2026.00USD-10.67-10.95
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.Platinum824.48USD-12.22-9.14
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.Soybean8.265USD-14.42-6.45
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwtRough Rice9.98USD-15.14-11.05
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.Copper2.7405USD-16.26-9.96
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.Silver14.36USD-16.41-12.71
Rubber (Tokyo)JPY/kgRubber169.70JPY-18.02-2.69
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.Lean Hogs0.579USD-18.83-23.53
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feetLumber347.20USD-22.90-35.80
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.Sugar0.1164USD-23.92-4.98
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.Coffee0.9670000000000001USD-25.41-16.46
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3Mo Zinc2434.00USD-26.66-21.20

Country USD Yields Ordered By YTD Yield Change

1f40
countryYieldYieldChange
Zambia12.125.90
Turkey10.945.58
Jamaica11.754.94
Lebanon11.794.53
Argentina9.613.93
Ecuador10.043.29
Tunisia8.772.98
Bermuda11.122.47
Russian Federation6.482.07
Sri Lanka6.912.05
Kenya7.611.92
Gabon7.951.90
India6.301.81
Ukraine8.491.70
Cote D'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)7.361.66
Senegal7.181.65
Italy6.591.61
Egypt7.281.50
South Africa6.291.39
China5.961.39
Nigeria7.251.38
Pakistan7.501.36
El Salvador7.601.27
Bahrain7.311.21
Ethiopia7.001.19
Iraq7.561.18
Mongolia6.601.18
Trinidad and Tobago5.271.11
Singapore5.111.08
Brazil6.781.06
Ghana7.111.06
Romania4.381.05
Jordan7.201.02
Dominican Republic5.831.00
Indonesia4.900.97
Belgium6.350.95
Australia5.650.95
Lithuania3.400.93
Serbia4.040.91
Morocco4.780.91
Hong Kong4.690.91
Oman5.640.90
Costa Rica6.880.86
Hungary4.010.85
Bolivia5.820.84
Chile5.170.83
Malaysia4.410.82
Macau5.850.82
Uruguay4.500.79
Kazakhstan5.510.79
Slovak Republic3.270.79
Netherlands5.120.78
Poland3.470.77
Kuwait4.360.76
Philippines4.080.74
Vietnam4.270.72
Peru4.810.71
Mexico5.180.68
Croatia (Hrvatska)3.900.67
Taiwan4.100.65
New Zealand5.720.65
Guatemala5.370.64
Qatar4.420.61
Panama4.700.59
Angola7.570.59
Paraguay5.740.58
Saudi Arabia5.290.58
Colombia5.010.54
Korea (South)4.150.54
United Arab Emirates4.810.53
Supranational4.100.53
Thailand4.600.53
Finland4.550.51
France7.140.47
Azerbaijan5.170.41
Sweden4.410.37
Canada6.380.30
United Kingdom5.800.30
Ireland5.420.26
United States5.660.24
Israel5.34-0.08
Germany4.98-0.16
Switzerland6.96-0.18
Venezuela5.66-1.55
Luxembourg7.39-2.09

Consumer Discretionary Regional Performance Last Month

1128
SubindustryEuropeEMUGEMWorld
Retailing: Specialty Retail7.235.732.014.51
Consumer Durables & Apparel: Leisure Products0.000.008.604.32
Automobiles & Components: Auto Components4.244.24-1.243.56
Automobiles & Components Industry Group5.615.61-0.532.95
Automobiles & Components: Automobiles6.046.04-0.312.71
Consumer Services: Hotels Restaurants & Leisure0.681.52-5.531.15
Consumer Services Industry Group0.681.52-5.071.09
Media Industry Group-2.29-1.911.220.95
Media: Media-2.29-1.911.220.95
Consumer Discretionary Sector1.282.38-1.410.52
Consumer Durables & Apparel: Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods-0.910.30-4.630.34
Consumer Durables & Apparel Industry Group-0.690.17-3.410.26
Consumer Durables & Apparel: Household Durables0.91-7.48-3.74-0.64
Retailing: Multiline Retail-4.590.003.88-0.76
Retailing Industry Group2.591.55-2.19-0.77
Retailing: Distributors0.000.00-8.35-1.96
Retailing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail-21.94-21.94-7.92-3.92
Consumer Services: Diversified Consumer Services0.000.00-4.33-4.23

Consumer Discretionary Regional Performance YTD

1173
SubindustryEuropeEMUGEMWorld
Retailing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail-22.30-22.30-26.8855.83
Retailing Industry Group-12.45-10.03-22.6331.86
Consumer Durables & Apparel: Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods11.6820.616.3217.33
Consumer Durables & Apparel: Leisure Products0.000.00-31.5515.48
Retailing: Specialty Retail-14.59-8.11-17.0614.34
Consumer Discretionary Sector-3.12-2.12-20.709.49
Retailing: Multiline Retail1.210.00-18.068.01
Consumer Durables & Apparel Industry Group7.1320.02-11.986.92
Media Industry Group-2.56-7.81-18.092.14
Media: Media-2.56-7.81-18.092.14
Consumer Services: Hotels Restaurants & Leisure-4.92-15.67-15.65-1.38
Consumer Services Industry Group-4.92-15.67-19.29-1.42
Consumer Services: Diversified Consumer Services0.000.00-25.32-5.52
Automobiles & Components: Automobiles-6.97-6.97-24.97-7.02
Retailing: Distributors0.000.00-39.16-8.13
Automobiles & Components Industry Group-10.54-11.38-24.39-8.58
Consumer Durables & Apparel: Household Durables-16.83-6.78-32.21-9.73
Automobiles & Components: Auto Components-20.08-23.22-22.58-12.23

Consumer Discretionary Performance in Various Countries Last Month

c2f
countryPeriodChange
Thailand10.72
Korea (South)6.97
Italy6.26
United States3.58
Taiwan2.34
Sweden2.29
United Kingdom1.40
France0.81
Japan0.28
Germany0.08
Croatia (Hrvatska)-0.48
Mexico-1.52
Poland-1.78
Spain-2.33
Philippines-3.65
Chile-3.70
Indonesia-4.22
Kuwait-5.47
Switzerland-5.51
China-5.61
Canada-6.09
India-7.03
Greece-7.16
Hong Kong-7.54
Denmark-8.98
South Africa-9.04
Malaysia-9.11
Argentina-9.19
Turkey-9.70
Singapore-9.96
Australia-11.42
Ireland-12.95
Brazil-16.92

Consumer Discretionary Valuation and Growth in Various Countries (Simple Averages)

13df
CountryPEFy0PEFy12018Growth
MACAU30.0023.0050.54
MALAYSIA16.6016.0034.17
SWITZERLAND6.676.3332.60
CHILE29.0023.0029.96
SINGAPORE0.000.0028.73
THAILAND34.5030.5027.02
SOUTH AFRICA8.3310.3322.51
MEXICO16.0016.0021.53
CHINA10.6912.9219.15
HONG KONG15.4310.4319.03
INDIA10.719.5717.86
SOUTH KOREA7.767.5217.73
SPAIN26.0021.0014.78
JAPAN13.0014.0014.16
AUSTRALIA15.5011.5012.92
GERMANY13.888.6312.52
CANADA23.5018.2512.12
BRITAIN14.4313.9311.85
UNITED STATES15.9612.2811.59
TAIWAN17.8310.3310.63
FRANCE18.5817.179.77
ITALY23.0026.009.09
INDONESIA14.759.757.76
RUSSIA8.755.254.91
TURKEY14.3311.003.74
SWEDEN15.3316.000.94
NETHERLANDS0.0018.500.00
ARGENTINA0.000.000.00
BRAZIL15.1415.29-0.84
LUXEMBOURG12.0015.00-39.97
1db8
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    Valuation and Growth of Various Sectors in Consumer Discretionary

    35
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    Link to Consumer Discretionary Macro Page 44

    Consumer Discretionary sector trades at 2018 simple average 13 PE Fy1 of 12.9 x a and 2018 13 PE Fy2 of 11.8 x 44

    Consumer Discretionary sector trades at 2018 simple average 16 EV/EBITDA of 7.9 x a and 2018 15 EV/EBITDA of 7.1 x 51

    In terms of Dividend yield Consumer Discretionary sector trades at 2018 12 Yield of 1.8 % a and 2018 1a Dividend Yield of 2.0 % 43

    On ROE basis Consumer Discretionary sector trades at 2018 11 ROE of 12.7 % a and 2018 10 ROE of 12.5 % 52

    Largest Companies in Consumer Discretionary by Market Capitalisation mn$

    1756
    TickerCompanyCountryIndustrySubIndustryMarketCapUSDmn
    AMZN USAmazon.com IncUNITED STATESRetailingInternet & Direct Marketing Re701229.0
    7203 JPToyota Motor CorpJAPANAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers209352.0
    HD USHome Depot Inc/TheUNITED STATESRetailingHome Improvement Retail199835.0
    MC FPLVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SEFRANCEConsumer Durables & ApparelApparel, Accessories & Luxury176593.0
    CMCSA USComcast CorpUNITED STATESMediaCable & Satellite153872.0
    CMCSK USComcast CorpUNITED STATESMediaCable & Satellite153872.0
    DIS USWalt Disney Co/TheUNITED STATESMediaMovies & Entertainment150953.0
    NFLX USNetflix IncUNITED STATESRetailingInternet & Direct Marketing Re134198.0
    MCD USMcDonald's CorpUNITED STATESConsumer ServicesRestaurants127047.0
    NPN SJNaspers LtdSOUTH AFRICAMediaCable & Satellite110247.0
    NKE USNIKE IncUNITED STATESConsumer Durables & ApparelFootwear109228.0
    VOW3 GRVolkswagen AGGERMANYAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers108363.0
    VOW GRVolkswagen AGGERMANYAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers108353.0
    ITX SMIndustria de Diseno Textil SASPAINRetailingApparel Retail96008.0
    DAI GRDaimler AGGERMANYAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers87189.0
    SBUX USStarbucks CorpUNITED STATESConsumer ServicesRestaurants83534.0
    CHTR USCharter Communications IncUNITED STATESMediaCable & Satellite80750.0
    CDI FPChristian Dior SEFRANCEConsumer Durables & ApparelApparel, Accessories & Luxury76980.0
    TWX USTime Warner IncUNITED STATESMediaMovies & Entertainment75130.0
    BMW GRBayerische Motoren Werke AGGERMANYAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers72867.0
    6f

    Number of Companies in Consumer Discretionary by Country by SubIndustry and Market Capitalisation mn$

    1226
    CountryIndustrySubIndustryNumber of companiesMarketCapUSDmn
    SOUTH KOREARetailingDepartment Stores412390.0
    HONG KONGRetailingDistributors1967.0
    CHINARetailingDepartment Stores32327.0
    TAIWANRetailingAutomotive Retail15500.0
    TAIWANRetailingDepartment Stores1877.0
    JAPANRetailingAutomotive Retail16477.0
    JAPANRetailingInternet & Direct Marketing Re110577.0
    CHINARetailingComputer & Electronics Retail12334.0
    JAPANRetailingDepartment Stores14707.0
    CHINARetailingAutomotive Retail16440.0
    JAPANRetailingComputer & Electronics Retail15886.0
    JAPANRetailingApparel Retail146162.0
    UNITED STATESRetailingAutomotive Retail455288.0
    UNITED STATESRetailingInternet & Direct Marketing Re5851703.0
    UNITED STATESRetailingHomefurnishing Retail12417.0
    UNITED STATESRetailingComputer & Electronics Retail120157.0
    UNITED STATESRetailingGeneral Merchandise Stores488326.0
    UNITED STATESRetailingSpecialty Stores636552.0
    CHILERetailingDepartment Stores124240.0
    UNITED STATESRetailingDistributors113225.0
    43

    Top Companies Consumer Discretionary by Dividend Yield

    656
    TickerCompanyCountryIndustrySubIndustryDividendYld_fy1
    SVAV RMSollers PJSCRUSSIAAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers15.0
    MPLU3 BZMultiplus SABRAZILMediaAdvertising8.0
    SESG FPSES SALUXEMBOURGMediaCable & Satellite8.0
    DSKY RMDetsky MirRussiaRetail - Discretionary8.0
    BST MKBerjaya Sports Toto BhdMALAYSIAConsumer ServicesCasinos & Gaming7.0
    44

    Cheapest Companies in Consumer Discretionary on FY1 PE

    6db
    TickerCompanyCountryIndustrySubIndustryPE_fy1
    489 HKDongfeng Motor Group Co LtdCHINAAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers4.0
    FCA IMFiat Chrysler Automobiles NVBRITAINAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers5.0
    PAH3 GRPorsche Automobil Holding SEGERMANYAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers5.0
    RNO FPRenault SAFRANCEAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers5.0
    000270 KSKia Motors CorpSOUTH KOREAAutomobiles & ComponentsAutomobile Manufacturers6.0
    64

    Earnings Relises and Dividends

    4c4
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